湖南省城乡居民消费差距及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-15 07:40

【摘要】：消费是经济增长的重要驱动力。2008年金融危机爆发后，我国贸易出口增长受限，而国内投资率水平较高，扩大内需成为刺激经济增长的重要渠道。作为“中部崛起”战略重要省份之一，湖南省承担了扩内需、促增长的重任。拉动消费必须采取合理有效的方式，因此关注消费的二元结构、促进城乡消费公平是湖南省刺激消费需求、稳定经济发展亟待研究的核心课题。改革开放以来，湖南省城乡居民消费差距不断扩大，城乡居民人均消费支出比值由1978年的2.77倍增长至2012年的2.83倍，2010年甚至达到3.26倍，2012年农村居民恩格尔系数仅相当于城镇居民十年前水平，城乡居民在消费水平和消费结构上均存在较大差距。本文以湖南省城乡居民消费差距为研究对象，在对相关消费理论进行梳理后，将消费差距从总量、质量和变动趋向三个维度进行分解，分别从消费水平差距、结构差距和倾向及弹性差距视角进行考察，分析表明湖南省农村居民消费在总量和质量上均远落后与城镇居民，，农村消费市场需求潜力尚待挖掘。接着，从收入差距、二元经济结构、金融发展和政府公共服务支出视角探讨影响城乡居民消费差距的主要因素。基于VAR模型的实证分析结果表明：湖南省城乡居民消费水平差距和城乡居民消费结构差距与上述因素间均存在长期均衡关系；城乡居民收入差距的扩大对城乡消费差距具有持续、显著的促进作用；城乡二元经济结构的缓解对城乡居民消费差距具有持续、显著的抑制作用；金融发展水平的提高带来的非均衡效应大于增收效应，对城乡居民消费差距有拉动作用，该影响具有一定滞后性；公共服务支出水平通过显著抑制城乡居民消费结构差距从而有效缩小城乡消费差距。最后，根据湖南省城乡居民消费差距的现状，结合影响因素的机理与实证研究，从缩小城乡收入差距、缓解城乡二元经济结构、均衡城乡金融发展、持续城乡公共服务投入和缩小城乡消费环境差距五个方面提出缩小湖南省城乡居民消费差距的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important driving force of economic growth. After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's trade export growth is restricted, while the domestic investment rate is relatively high, expanding domestic demand has become an important channel to stimulate economic growth. As one of the important provinces in the strategy of "Central China rising", Hunan Province undertakes the important task of boosting domestic demand and promoting growth. Therefore, to pay attention to the dual structure of consumption and to promote urban and rural consumption equity is the core task of Hunan Province to stimulate consumption demand and stabilize economic development. Since the reform and opening up, the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption in Hunan Province has been widening. The ratio of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents increased from 2.77 times in 1978 to 2.83 times in 2012, and even reached 3.26 times in 2010. In 2012, the Engel coefficient of rural residents was only equivalent to the level of urban residents 10 years ago. There is a big gap between urban and rural residents in consumption level and consumption structure. In this paper, the consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province as the research object, after combing the relevant consumption theory, the consumption gap from the total amount, quality and change trend of three dimensions, respectively from the consumption level gap, From the perspective of structural gap, tendency and elasticity gap, the analysis shows that the total and quality consumption of rural residents in Hunan Province is far behind that of urban residents, and the demand potential of rural consumption market needs to be excavated. Then, from the perspective of income gap, dual economic structure, financial development and government public service expenditure, this paper discusses the main factors that affect the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. The empirical results based on VAR model show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the gap of consumption level between urban and rural residents and the gap of consumption structure between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province. The widening of the income gap between urban and rural residents has a sustained and significant promoting effect on the urban-rural consumption gap, and the alleviation of urban-rural dual economic structure has a sustained and significant inhibitory effect on the urban-rural residents' consumption gap. The disequilibrium effect brought by the improvement of financial development level is greater than that of income increase, which has a pulling effect on the consumption gap between urban and rural residents, which has a certain lag effect. The level of public service expenditure can effectively reduce the gap between urban and rural consumption by significantly reducing the gap of consumption structure between urban and rural residents. Finally, according to the current situation of consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province, combined with the mechanism and empirical study of influencing factors, from narrowing the urban-rural income gap, alleviating the urban-rural dual economic structure, balancing the urban and rural financial development, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on reducing the gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province from five aspects: sustaining urban and rural public service investment and narrowing the gap between urban and rural consumption environment.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1

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