广州市企业海外投资风险分析与防范

发布时间：2018-07-27 13:07

【摘要】：当前，企业海外投资，已成为我国企业“走出去”的重要战略举措。党中央、国务院为进一步拓展企业发展空间、掌握企业发展主动权，逐步提升“走出去”的地位，特别是在党的十八届三中全会上，“走出去”的地位被进一步提升，已与“引进来”居于同等重要地位。这给外向型经济占重要地位的广州市企业带来利好消息，但同时也对广州市企业提出了新的要求。“走出去”政策必将促使广州市企业加快海外投资步伐，以缓解要素成本上涨、资源瓶颈制约、人民币升值压力、国外反倾销加剧等因素带来的压力，从而推动广州市经济健康可持续发展。但是与此同时，因投资目的国的投资环境复杂性以及全球形势的不确定性，广州市企业进行海外投资风险问题备受关注，已成为当前政府界、企业界和学术界等社会各界关注的热点课题。广州市企业海外投资风险问题涉及因素众多，该问题的研究与思考是一项复杂的系统工程。通过对广州市企业海外投资的历程、比较优势、海外投资的意义、必要性、可行性和复杂性等方面进行了分析研究，运用企业海外投资理论、风险管理理论、模糊决策理论和计算机技术等多学科协同创新研究模式，利用霍尔三维结构图对广州市企业海外风险的复杂性进行较为系统的分析，从而构建了形象、直观的广州市企业海外风险分析的霍尔三维结构图，为有效管控广州市企业海外投资风险提供一种新的模式；从广州市企业海外投资风险的诱惑机制和约束机制的视角分析广州市企业海外投资风险形成的动态机理，构建了广州市企业海外投资风险动态平衡的数理模型，对于有效规避广州市企业海外投资风险具有较高的理论及应用价值；基于风险概念的模糊不确定性，运用模糊决策理论，对广州市企业海外投资风险进行模糊测度和预警，对提高广州市企业海外投资风险管控能力提供了一种新的科学研究方法。根据本文的研究，通过广州市SJ集团有限公司的海外投资风险管理问题进行了实证分析，以说明本文研究的理论模型的有效性、可靠性、科学性和应用性。最后，对构建政府、企业、第三方机构三个层面的广州市企业海外投资风险防控体系提出了相应的对策措施。
[Abstract]:At present, overseas investment has become an important strategic measure for Chinese enterprises to go out. In order to further expand the space for the development of enterprises, the State Council and the CPC Central Committee have gradually upgraded the status of "going out" to the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in order to grasp the initiative in the development of enterprises, and in particular, the status of "going out" has been further promoted. It is as important as bringing in. This brings good news to the enterprises of Guangzhou, which have an important position in export-oriented economy, but at the same time, it puts forward new requirements to the enterprises of Guangzhou. The "going out" policy will certainly urge Guangzhou enterprises to speed up their overseas investment in order to ease the pressure brought by factors such as rising factor costs, resource bottleneck constraints, pressure on RMB appreciation, intensified anti-dumping abroad, and so on. So as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of Guangzhou's economy. But at the same time, due to the complexity of the investment environment and the uncertainty of the global situation in the investment destination countries, the risk of overseas investment by Guangzhou enterprises has attracted much attention and has become the current government sector. Business circles and academia and other social circles concerned about hot topics. There are many factors involved in the risk of overseas investment of Guangzhou enterprises, and the research and consideration of this problem is a complicated systematic project. Based on the analysis of the course, comparative advantage, significance, necessity, feasibility and complexity of overseas investment of Guangzhou enterprises, this paper applies the theory of enterprise overseas investment and the theory of risk management. The fuzzy decision theory and computer technology are used to analyze the complexity of overseas risk of Guangzhou enterprises, and the image is constructed. The direct analysis of overseas risk in Guangzhou City provides a new model for the effective management of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises. This paper analyzes the dynamic mechanism of the formation of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises from the perspective of enticement mechanism and constraint mechanism of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises, and constructs a mathematical model of dynamic balance of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises. Based on the fuzzy uncertainty of risk concept, the fuzzy decision theory is used to measure and warn the overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises. It provides a new scientific research method to improve the risk control ability of Guangzhou enterprises' overseas investment. According to the research of this paper, through the overseas investment risk management of Guangzhou SJ Group Co., Ltd., an empirical analysis is made to illustrate the validity, reliability, science and application of the theoretical model studied in this paper. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to construct the risk prevention and control system of Guangzhou enterprises' overseas investment in three levels: government, enterprise and third party organization.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F279.2;F275;F125

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