辽宁产业结构变动对就业结构影响的统计分析

发布时间：2018-08-21 14:51

【摘要】：十一届三中全会以来,国家的经济持续发展,但是就业仍然存在很大的问题。由于近年我国的经济发展进入新常态,国家经济处于下滑状态,特别是对于东北老工业基地来说,随着经济进入新常态,支撑东北地区经济发展的工业发展出现问题,作为新中国重工业的发源地,东北地区受制于产业结构单一,抗风险、抗市场冲击能力较弱等因素影响,近几年发展遇到重大问题。雪上加霜的是,经济的低迷让这块“重工业基地”的就业形势复杂而严峻。而就业的发展离不开东北经济和结构调整等因素的影响,为了促进东北地区就业,本文在分析产业结构变动的基础上,对就业结构进行预测。本文选定的范围是辽宁省,针对辽宁省这样一个人口大省,能不能解决好就业问题,关系着东北老工业基地振兴目标的实现。文章先对辽宁省结构的现状进行了分析,包括了产业结构和就业结构,了解了辽宁省的结构现状,接着对辽宁省产业与就业的结构相互影响进行分析,一方面运用相关关系指标分析二者关系,指标包括相关系数指标、结构偏离度指标和就业弹性指标。另一方面运用协整半对数线性回归分析辽宁省产业结构的变动进而对就业产生的影响,然后对辽宁省的就业结构进行了预测,这个前提是文章先对产业结构进行了预测,从分析结果来看,辽宁省产业结构的调整对就业结构具有一定的影响,辽宁省经济的增长主要还是靠着第二产业的拉动作用,对经济的发展具有支撑作用,而随着不断的结构调整,辽宁省第二产业和第三产业起到了吸纳第一产业剩余劳动力的作用,第三产业虽然对吸纳劳动力起着一定的作用,但是发展后劲不足,仍然需要进一步的完善。从就业结构的预测中可以看出来,随着辽宁省产业结构的不断调整,到“十三五”时期预测出的就业结构有一定的改善,其中第一产业的就业比重降落,二产也有所回落,三产在吸纳从业人数起着重要的作用。本文的创新之处有两点,一是本论文在分析产业结构变动时,运用产业结构变动方向和产业结构变动速度这两个指标;二是在对辽宁省就业结构进行预测时,是以产业结构变动的视角下作的,以往的论文很少在产业结构变动的视角下分析。
[Abstract]:Since the third Plenary session of the Eleventh Central Committee, the country's economy has continued to develop, but there are still a lot of problems in employment. As the economic development of our country has entered the new normal in recent years, the national economy is in a state of decline, especially for the old industrial bases in the Northeast, as the economy enters the new normal, the industrial development that supports the economic development in the Northeast region has problems. As the birthplace of heavy industry in New China, Northeast China is subject to the influence of single industrial structure, anti-risk and weak ability to resist market impact. In recent years, the development of Northeast China has encountered major problems. To make matters worse, the economic downturn has complicated the employment situation in this heavy industrial base. The development of employment can not be separated from the influence of economic and structural adjustment in Northeast China. In order to promote employment in Northeast China, this paper forecasts the structure of employment on the basis of analyzing the changes of industrial structure. The scope of this paper is Liaoning Province. Whether or not we can solve the problem of employment is related to the realization of the goal of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China. The article first analyzes the present situation of Liaoning Province's structure, including industrial structure and employment structure, then analyzes the interaction between industry and employment structure in Liaoning Province. On the one hand, the relationship between them is analyzed by using the correlation relation index, which includes the correlation coefficient index, the structure deviation index and the employment elasticity index. On the other hand, by using cointegration semi-logarithmic linear regression analysis, the influence of the change of industrial structure on employment in Liaoning Province is analyzed, and then the employment structure of Liaoning Province is forecasted. This premise is that the article first forecasts the industrial structure. From the analysis results, the adjustment of the industrial structure of Liaoning Province has a certain impact on the employment structure. The economic growth of Liaoning Province mainly depends on the pull role of the secondary industry, which has a supporting role to the economic development. With the continuous structural adjustment, the secondary and tertiary industries in Liaoning Province have played a role in absorbing surplus labor force in the primary industry. Although the tertiary industry has played a certain role in absorbing the labor force, it has not developed with sufficient stamina. Further improvement is still needed. From the forecast of the employment structure, it can be seen that with the continuous adjustment of the industrial structure in Liaoning Province, the employment structure predicted during the 13th Five-Year Plan period has improved to a certain extent, in which the employment proportion of the primary industry has declined, and the secondary industry has also fallen back. Three industries in the absorption of the number of employees play an important role. There are two innovations in this paper. One is that this paper applies the two indexes of industrial structure change direction and industrial structure change speed when analyzing the change of industrial structure, and the other is forecasting the employment structure of Liaoning Province. It is made from the perspective of industrial structure change, and few of the previous papers are analyzed from the perspective of industrial structure change.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

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