要素替代增长模式下的收入分配效应研究——基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析

发布时间：2018-10-20 13:25

【摘要】：劳动收入份额的稳定性是宏观经济模型的关键基础,同样也是个人收入分配格局的根本决定因素。在中国经济发展进入"新常态"的现实背景下,探寻劳动收入份额持续下降的动因对现阶段规避"中等收入陷阱"具有重要意义。基于有偏技术进步的视角,我们提出了资本-劳动替代弹性影响劳动收入份额的假说,并采用中国2000—2012年省际地区面板数据进行了经验检验。研究结果表明,尽管要素替代增长效应显著,但资本-劳动替代弹性的提高使技术进步越来越偏向资本,进而显著降低了劳动收入份额,进一步恶化了要素收入分配格局,最终对步入高等收入国家产生阻力。上述结论在进行了变量内生性问题和滞后效应、异常样本等稳健性检验后,回归结果依然稳健。因此,我们认为未来中国应进一步通过制度设计、政策制定等途径构建有效的驱动组合,尽快实现由要素驱动型向效率驱动型增长方式的转变。
[Abstract]:The stability of labor income share is the key basis of macroeconomic model, and it is also the fundamental determinant of individual income distribution pattern. Under the background of China's economic development entering the "new normal", it is of great significance to explore the motivation for the continuous decline of labor income share in order to avoid the "middle income trap" at the present stage. Based on the perspective of biased technological progress, we propose the hypothesis that capital-labor substitution elasticity affects labor income share, and use the panel data from 2000 to 2012 to carry out empirical tests. The results show that, although the growth effect of factor substitution is significant, the improvement of capital-labor substitution elasticity makes technological progress more and more towards capital, thus significantly reducing the share of labor income, further worsening the distribution pattern of factor income. Eventually, there is resistance to moving into higher income countries. The above conclusions are still robust after the stability tests of variable endogenicity problem, lag effect, abnormal sample and so on. Therefore, we think that in the future China should construct an effective driving combination through institutional design and policy formulation, and realize the transformation from factor driven to efficiency driven growth as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所;云南大学发展研究院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金资助项目“有偏技术进步视角下要素替代增长效应研究”(2016M600161) 国家自然科学基金项目“不确定环境下中国沿边经济区的企业行为与企业集聚研究”(71362026)的资助
【分类号】：F126.2

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