中国公共资本存量的再估计及其应用——动态一般均衡的视角

发布时间：2018-11-04 12:15

【摘要】：在宏观经济研究中,公共资本存量是讨论政府支出弹性和乘数效应的基础数据。本文采用动态随机一般均衡模型,对不同形式调整成本的公共资本存量模型进行甄别,选出与中国实际经济最为契合的公共资本积累模型。通过"贝叶斯"方法,本文测算出中国公共资本的年折旧率为9.28%。根据选择的积累模型和折旧率,本文估计出全国及31个省份1978—2013年的公共资本存量。根据估算的结果,本文进一步讨论了公共资本的投资效率、区域间的公共资本差异及其最优性。研究发现:大部分省份公共资本的实际水平远高于产出弹性;公共资本的边际效率低于1,表明目前的政府投资水平是过度且低效的。
[Abstract]:In macroeconomic research, the stock of public capital is the basic data to discuss the elasticity and multiplier effect of government expenditure. In this paper, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used to identify the stock models of public capital in different forms of adjustment costs, and the public capital accumulation model, which is most suitable for China's actual economy, is selected. By Bayesian method, this paper calculates that the annual depreciation rate of Chinese public capital is 9.28%. Based on the selected accumulation model and depreciation rate, this paper estimates the stock of public capital in China and 31 provinces from 1978 to 2013. Based on the estimated results, this paper further discusses the investment efficiency of public capital, the regional differences of public capital and their optimality. It is found that the actual level of public capital in most provinces is much higher than that of output elasticity, and the marginal efficiency of public capital is less than 1, which indicates that the current level of government investment is excessive and inefficient.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学财政与税务学院;南京银行股份有限公司南通分行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJY077) 江苏高校“青蓝工程”资助(2017.6—2019.7) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2015SJB136) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)资助
【分类号】：F124

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