河北省经济增长与环境质量关系研究

发布时间：2019-01-16 01:04

【摘要】：“九五”以来，河北省经济呈现高速发展，人均GDP持续增长，在产业结构中，第二产业占最大比重，重工业仍然是主导产业。伴随着经济的快速增长，环境污染问题日益严重，生态环境比较脆弱，雾霾、沙尘天气频繁出现。如何治理环境污染，提高环境质量，实现河北省经济效益和环境效益的协调发展，成为政府、学者、社会公众普遍关注的热点问题。本文选取河北省1998-2012年经济增长和环境质量的相关数据，，选出代表经济增长和环境质量的典型指标，建立环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型，运用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)相关理论，分析河北省经济增长与环境质量的关系。首先，介绍相关理论及方法。介绍了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的理论内涵，常见模型及表现形式，EKC成因的影响因素。另外阐述了回归分析法的基本思想，多元回归模型和逐步回归法。其次，分析河北省经济增长和环境质量现状。从经济整体增长状况、产业结构两方面分析了河北省经济增长的状况；从水环境、空气环境、固体废弃物排放、生态环境四方面分析了河北省环境质量的状况。再次，选取河北省六类典型环境质量指标，人均GDP作为经济增长指标，分别构建环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型，运用SPSS软件模拟方程结果和拟合曲线，得出人均GDP与各个环境质量指标的模拟方程，对模拟结果进行分析后发现，河北省只有工业废气排放量与人均GDP呈现典型倒U型，其他环境质量指标的EKC呈现N型、倒N型、单调递增型。最后，根据河北省EKC表现形式，选取EKC成因影响因素指标和环境质量指标，建立多元回归模型，采用逐步回归法进一步探究河北省EKC的成因，并且从规模、结构、技术、政策角度提出改善环境质量的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the Ninth Five-Year Plan, the economy of Hebei Province has developed at a high speed and the per capita GDP has continued to grow. In the industrial structure, the secondary industry accounts for the largest proportion, and heavy industry is still the leading industry. With the rapid growth of economy, the problem of environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and the relatively fragile ecological environment, haze, dust weather frequently appears. How to control environmental pollution, improve environmental quality and realize the coordinated development of economic and environmental benefits in Hebei Province has become a hot issue that the government, scholars and the public are generally concerned about. This paper selects the relevant data of economic growth and environmental quality from 1998 to 2012 in Hebei Province, selects the typical indicators representing economic growth and environmental quality, and establishes the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model. The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Hebei Province is analyzed by using the (EKC) theory of environmental Kuznets curve. First of all, introduce the relevant theories and methods. This paper introduces the theoretical connotation, common models and forms of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), and the influencing factors of EKC formation. In addition, the basic idea of regression analysis, multiple regression model and stepwise regression method are expounded. Secondly, the economic growth and environmental quality of Hebei Province are analyzed. This paper analyzes the situation of economic growth in Hebei Province from two aspects of the overall economic growth and industrial structure, and analyzes the environmental quality of Hebei Province from four aspects: water environment, air environment, solid waste discharge and ecological environment. Thirdly, six kinds of typical environmental quality indexes of Hebei Province are selected, and the per capita GDP is taken as the economic growth index. The (EKC) model of the environmental Kuznets curve is constructed, and the simulation results and fitting curves of the environmental Kuznets curve are obtained by SPSS software. The simulation equations of per capita GDP and each environmental quality index are obtained. The results show that only industrial exhaust gas emissions and per capita GDP are typical inverted U type in Hebei Province, while the other EKC of other environmental quality indexes are N type and inverted N type. Monotone increasing type. Finally, according to the manifestation of EKC in Hebei Province, the factors affecting the cause of formation of EKC and the index of environmental quality are selected, and the multivariate regression model is established. The stepwise regression method is used to further explore the causes of EKC in Hebei Province, and from the scale, structure, technology, From the policy point of view, countermeasures and suggestions for improving environmental quality are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F124.1

【参考文献】