浙江省经济增长与环境污染关系研究
发布时间：2019-04-27 11:19
【摘要】：收入的库兹涅茨曲线是指一国经济在发展初期,社会各阶层之间的收入分配差距会随着经济增长而扩大；而当经济发展到一定水平后,收入差别又会逐步缩小。用图形描述出来像倒转的字母U,因此被称为库兹涅茨收入分配“倒U”曲线。与收入库兹涅茨曲线相类似,环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC)是指一个国家或地区的环境质量会随着经济的增长先恶化然后改善,在图形上显示为倒“U”形状。国外很多学者对发达国家和新兴经济体的经济增长和环境污染之间的关系进行了计量回归分析,验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在,转折拐点在人均GDP4000—8000美元之间。 改革开放以来,浙江省经济与环境污染都呈现快速增长的趋势,浙江省经济增长与环境污染是否也存在国际经验中的倒U形环境库兹涅茨曲线则不得而知。在此背景下,本文以浙江省为例,基于其1981—2009年的废水(工业废水、生活废水)、废气(二氧化硫、工业粉尘和烟尘)和固体废弃物的年度“三废”排放数据,通过标准化办法计算反映浙江省总体污染水平的综合污染指数,并在对数据进行单位根检验、平稳性检验和因果关系检验等严格检验的基础上,建立由环境污染和产出并包含经济增长的规模效应、产业结构变动的结构效应、技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应等若干控制变量的联立方程模型,检验浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线是否符合国际经验的倒U形状,用因素分解法定量研究影响浙江省环境污染的经济增长的规模效应、产业结构变动的结构效应、科技进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应。 本文的主要结论是：浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈“N”形,即随着浙江省经济增长和人均GDP的增加,浙江省环境污染先上升而后个别年份出现短暂微弱的下降,然后又呈上升的趋势,并非国际经验中的先上升而后下降的倒U形状,也没有出现环境污染下降的拐点,我们推测这是因为浙江省改革开放以来的经济增长和工业化进程体现出不同于发达国家经济增长的特点,使得浙江省并未出现倒U形环境库兹涅茨曲线。计量回归分析和因素分解法结果表明,造成浙江省环境污染上升的主要原因是浙江省经济快速增长带来的规模效应和产业结构变动的结构效应(工业占GDP比重和工业内部重工业比重上升),而技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应则起着改善浙江省环境质量的作用。但由于改革开放以来浙江省经济的增长速度大大快于发达国家同期的经济增长速度,工业化进程加速推进,重工业比重不断提升,使得经济增长的规模效应和产业结构变动的结构效应对污染加重的影响之和大于技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应对污染改善的影响之和,使得当前浙江省整体污染仍呈上升趋势,未出现污染下降的拐点,这也是浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线没有出现国际经验中倒U形拐点的原因。因此,加速产业结构升级,推进新型工业化,同时发挥更大的技术进步的技术效应和环保政策的政策效应,是实现浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点、改善环境质量的必要条件。 本文研究结论还发现,环境污染对浙江省经济增长起着负面的影响,即环境污染的加剧最终会阻碍浙江省经济的进一步增长,因而西方国家“先污染,后治理”的道路不适合浙江省实情,浙江省只能走经济与环境协调发展的新型工业化道路,在经济发展的同时改善环境质量。
[Abstract]:The Kuznets curve of income refers to a country's economy in the early stage of development, the income distribution gap between all segments of society will expand with the growth of the economy, and when the economy develops to a certain level, the income difference will be gradually reduced. A graphic is used to describe an inverted letter U, so it is known as the Kuznets revenue distribution "inverted U" curve. Similar to the revenue Kuznets curve, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) means that the environmental quality of a country or region is then deteriorated and then improved as the economy grows, and is shown in the figure as an inverted "U" shape. The relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in developed and emerging economies has been measured and analyzed by many foreign scholars, and the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve is verified. The turning point of the turning point is between US $4,000 and $8,000 per person. Since the reform and opening-up, the economic and environmental pollution in Zhejiang province has been increasing rapidly, and the economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang province are also the inverse U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve in international experience. In this context, the annual "three wastes" emission of waste water (industrial waste water, domestic waste water), waste gas (sulfur dioxide, industrial dust and smoke) and solid waste of the waste water (industrial waste water, domestic waste water) and waste gas (sulfur dioxide, industrial dust and smoke) and solid waste is taken as an example in Zhejiang Province as an example. According to the standard method, the comprehensive pollution index reflecting the total pollution level of Zhejiang Province is calculated and the scale effect of environmental pollution and output and including economic growth is established on the basis of the strict inspection of data carrying out unit root inspection, stability inspection and causality test. It is necessary that the structural effect of industrial structure change, the technical effect of technological progress and the policy effect of the government's environmental policy, etc., can be used to test whether the environmental Kuznets curve in Zhejiang is in conformity with the inverse U-shape of international experience. On the Scale Effect of the Economic Growth of the Environmental Pollution in Zhejiang Province, the Structural Effect of the Change of the Industrial Structure, the Technical Effect of the Scientific and Technological Progress and the Policy Effect of the Government's Environmental Protection Policy The main conclusion of this paper is that the environmental Kuznets curve between the economic growth and the environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province is in the form of a "N", that is, with the increase of the economic growth and the per capita GDP in Zhejiang, the environmental pollution in Zhejiang province rises first and then the individual year is short and weak. The decline, and then the upward trend, is not the first rise of the international experience and the fall of the inverted U shape, and there is no environmental pollution reduction. The point of inflection points out that this is because the economic growth and the industrialization process since the reform and opening-up in Zhejiang Province are different from the characteristics of the economic growth of the developed countries, so that the inverted U-shaped environment Kuznets is not present in the province. The results show that the main cause of the rise of the environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province is the scale effect brought by the rapid economic growth of Zhejiang Province and the structural effect of the change of the industrial structure (the proportion of industrial GDP and the specific gravity of heavy industry in the industry). The technical effect of technological progress and the policy effect of the government's environmental policy are improving the environmental quality of Zhejiang Province. However, since the reform and opening-up, the economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province is much faster than that of the developed countries in the same period, and the industrialization process has accelerated, and the specific gravity of heavy industry does not The influence of the structural effects of the scale effect of economic growth and the structural effect of the change of the industrial structure on the pollution is higher than that of the technical effect of the technological progress and the policy effect of the government's environmental protection policy on the improvement of the pollution, so that the overall pollution in Zhejiang is still on the rise The rising trend, no inflection point of pollution reduction, is also the inverse U-shaped inflection point in the international experience of the environmental Kuznets curve in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, to accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure, to advance the new industrialization, and to exert more technological and environmental policies on the technological progress, it is necessary to realize the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve in Zhejiang Province and to improve the environmental quality. The conclusion of this paper also shows that the environmental pollution has a negative effect on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province, that is, the aggravation of the environmental pollution will eventually hinder the further growth of the economy in Zhejiang, so the western national "pre-pollution and post-treatment" 's road is not suitable The situation in Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Province can only go to the new industrialization road of economic and environmental coordinated development, and change in the same time of economic development
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F127;F205;F224
本文编号：2466933
[Abstract]:The Kuznets curve of income refers to a country's economy in the early stage of development, the income distribution gap between all segments of society will expand with the growth of the economy, and when the economy develops to a certain level, the income difference will be gradually reduced. A graphic is used to describe an inverted letter U, so it is known as the Kuznets revenue distribution "inverted U" curve. Similar to the revenue Kuznets curve, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) means that the environmental quality of a country or region is then deteriorated and then improved as the economy grows, and is shown in the figure as an inverted "U" shape. The relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in developed and emerging economies has been measured and analyzed by many foreign scholars, and the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve is verified. The turning point of the turning point is between US $4,000 and $8,000 per person. Since the reform and opening-up, the economic and environmental pollution in Zhejiang province has been increasing rapidly, and the economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang province are also the inverse U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve in international experience. In this context, the annual "three wastes" emission of waste water (industrial waste water, domestic waste water), waste gas (sulfur dioxide, industrial dust and smoke) and solid waste of the waste water (industrial waste water, domestic waste water) and waste gas (sulfur dioxide, industrial dust and smoke) and solid waste is taken as an example in Zhejiang Province as an example. According to the standard method, the comprehensive pollution index reflecting the total pollution level of Zhejiang Province is calculated and the scale effect of environmental pollution and output and including economic growth is established on the basis of the strict inspection of data carrying out unit root inspection, stability inspection and causality test. It is necessary that the structural effect of industrial structure change, the technical effect of technological progress and the policy effect of the government's environmental policy, etc., can be used to test whether the environmental Kuznets curve in Zhejiang is in conformity with the inverse U-shape of international experience. On the Scale Effect of the Economic Growth of the Environmental Pollution in Zhejiang Province, the Structural Effect of the Change of the Industrial Structure, the Technical Effect of the Scientific and Technological Progress and the Policy Effect of the Government's Environmental Protection Policy The main conclusion of this paper is that the environmental Kuznets curve between the economic growth and the environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province is in the form of a "N", that is, with the increase of the economic growth and the per capita GDP in Zhejiang, the environmental pollution in Zhejiang province rises first and then the individual year is short and weak. The decline, and then the upward trend, is not the first rise of the international experience and the fall of the inverted U shape, and there is no environmental pollution reduction. The point of inflection points out that this is because the economic growth and the industrialization process since the reform and opening-up in Zhejiang Province are different from the characteristics of the economic growth of the developed countries, so that the inverted U-shaped environment Kuznets is not present in the province. The results show that the main cause of the rise of the environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province is the scale effect brought by the rapid economic growth of Zhejiang Province and the structural effect of the change of the industrial structure (the proportion of industrial GDP and the specific gravity of heavy industry in the industry). The technical effect of technological progress and the policy effect of the government's environmental policy are improving the environmental quality of Zhejiang Province. However, since the reform and opening-up, the economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province is much faster than that of the developed countries in the same period, and the industrialization process has accelerated, and the specific gravity of heavy industry does not The influence of the structural effects of the scale effect of economic growth and the structural effect of the change of the industrial structure on the pollution is higher than that of the technical effect of the technological progress and the policy effect of the government's environmental protection policy on the improvement of the pollution, so that the overall pollution in Zhejiang is still on the rise The rising trend, no inflection point of pollution reduction, is also the inverse U-shaped inflection point in the international experience of the environmental Kuznets curve in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, to accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure, to advance the new industrialization, and to exert more technological and environmental policies on the technological progress, it is necessary to realize the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve in Zhejiang Province and to improve the environmental quality. The conclusion of this paper also shows that the environmental pollution has a negative effect on the economic growth of Zhejiang Province, that is, the aggravation of the environmental pollution will eventually hinder the further growth of the economy in Zhejiang, so the western national "pre-pollution and post-treatment" 's road is not suitable The situation in Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Province can only go to the new industrialization road of economic and environmental coordinated development, and change in the same time of economic development
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F127;F205;F224
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