中国低碳经济发展水平的多维评价及实证研究

发布时间：2019-04-30 11:31

【摘要】：近年来,全球气候变暖问题越来越受到人们的关注,在此背景下,以低能耗、低污染为基础的低碳经济成为全球研究的热点。根据科学发展观的内涵,构建以人为本,树立全面、协调、可持续的、多维度的低碳经济发展水平评价指标体系,目的在于从客观上对我国低碳经济发展水平进行评价,便于总结经验和教训,帮助国家相关政策的制定。本文首先对国内外文献进行了梳理与回顾,并对国际间低碳经济发展格局和中国发展低碳经济的现状进行了介绍。分析得出,低碳经济是一个综合性问题,它强调的是通过降低碳排放量,应对气候变化给经济社会和人类生存带来的影响,使经济社会和资源环境协调共同发展。从低碳经济的内涵上来看,它涉及到经济、人口、资源和环境等多方面的因素,因此它是一个复杂系统。本文运用“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”(DPSIR)模型构建了低碳经济系统,对低碳经济系统进行了机理分析。基于上述理论分析,本文对中国低碳经济发展水平进行了多维评价。“多维”体现在“横向上分为国家、省级、城市三个跨度,纵向上分为驱动力、压力、状态、响应四个准则层,方法上运用多种评价模型,对我国的低碳经济发展水平进行多维度的实证分析”。首先,构建了基于时间序列数据的国家维度低碳经济发展水平评价指标体系,以1996年至2010年的中国低碳经济发展水平为样本进行实证研究,采用层次分析法对其进行评价,并进一步的,用主成分分析法对样本进行验证,找出影响低碳经济发展水平的重要指标,结果表明：与西方发达国家相比,我国的低碳经济发展水平还存在较大的差距。其次,构建了基于面板数据的省级维度低碳经济发展水平评价指标体系,对我国2000年至2010年30个省(自治区、直辖市)的低碳经济进行了实证分析,结果表明：我国省域低碳经济发展水平总体呈现出由西部向东部逐渐增强、北部向南部逐渐增强,局部地区表现突出的格局,经济发展水平、资源禀赋及其利用情况和政策扶持力度等因素决定了各地区的低碳经济发展水平,中西部地区的低碳经济建设是我国低碳发展的关键。然后,建立了基于DEA模型的城市维度低碳经济发展水平评价模型,运用2005年和2010年我国30个大城市的面板数据,利用超效率DEA模型测算了大城市低碳经济发展水平,并用Tobit模型检验了城市维度低碳经济发展水平的影响因素,结果表明：城市间低碳经济发展水平差距巨大,以2010年为例,从空间分布上来看,南方城市的低碳经济发展水平明显高于北方城市,东部城市的低碳经济发展水平表现出全面领先的优势。人均GDP、产业结构和政策措施的改善对提高城市低碳经济发展水平有明显的积极的影响。最后,根据实证分析结果,探讨对应的政策建议,以期为我国低碳经济的发展提供一定的科学依据和理论指导。
[Abstract]:In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to the problem of global warming. Under this background, low-carbon economy based on low energy consumption and low pollution has become the focus of global research. According to the connotation of the scientific concept of development, we should build a comprehensive, coordinated, sustainable and multi-dimensional evaluation index system of low-carbon economy development level, which aims at objectively evaluating the development level of low-carbon economy of our country. It is convenient to sum up experiences and lessons, and to help the formulation of relevant national policies. Firstly, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign literatures, and introduces the development pattern of international low-carbon economy and the present situation of China's low-carbon economy. It is concluded that low-carbon economy is a comprehensive problem, which emphasizes the coordinated development of economy, society and resources and environment by reducing carbon emissions and coping with the impact of climate change on economic, social and human survival. From the connotation of low-carbon economy, it involves many factors such as economy, population, resources and environment, so it is a complex system. In this paper, the driving force-pressure-state-influence-response (DPSIR) model is used to construct the low-carbon economic system, and the mechanism of the low-carbon economic system is analyzed. Based on the above-mentioned theoretical analysis, this paper makes a multi-dimensional evaluation on the development level of China's low-carbon economy. "Multi-dimensional" is reflected in the "horizontal divided into national, provincial, urban three-span, vertically divided into driving force, pressure, state, response to the four criteria layer, the method of using a variety of evaluation models," China's low-carbon economic development level of multi-dimensional empirical analysis. Firstly, based on the time series data, the paper constructs the evaluation index system of low-carbon economic development level in the national dimension. Taking the development level of China's low-carbon economy from 1996 to 2010 as a sample, the paper makes an empirical study on it and evaluates it by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Furthermore, the principal component analysis method is used to verify the samples to find out the important indicators that affect the development level of low-carbon economy. The results show that there is still a big gap in the development level of low-carbon economy in China compared with the developed countries in the West. Secondly, the paper constructs the evaluation index system of low-carbon economic development level of provincial dimension based on panel data, and empirically analyzes the low-carbon economy of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that the development level of low-carbon economy in the province of China is gradually enhanced from the west to the east and the north to the south, and the economic development level is prominent in some areas. The development level of low-carbon economy in different regions is determined by the resource endowment, utilization and policy support, and the construction of low-carbon economy in the central and western regions is the key to the low-carbon development in China. Then, the evaluation model of urban low-carbon economic development level based on DEA model is established. Using the panel data of 30 big cities in China in 2005 and 2010, the super-efficient DEA model is used to calculate the development level of low-carbon economy in large cities. The Tobit model is used to test the influencing factors of the development level of low carbon economy in urban dimension. The results show that there is a huge gap in the development level of low carbon economy among cities. Taking 2010 as an example, the spatial distribution of low carbon economy in cities is considered as an example. The development level of low-carbon economy in southern cities is obviously higher than that in northern cities, while the development level of low-carbon economies in eastern cities shows an overall leading advantage. The improvement of the industrial structure and policy measures of per capita GDP, has a significant positive effect on the development level of urban low-carbon economy. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the corresponding policy recommendations are discussed in order to provide a certain scientific basis and theoretical guidance for the development of low-carbon economy in China.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5;F224

【参考文献】