杭州市住宅子市场与住宅价格评估
发布时间：2018-07-14 18:40
【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市规模不断扩张,加上住宅产品的异质性特点,城市内部住宅子市场逐渐形成且日益凸显。在不同的子市场中,无论是最终的房价还是影响房价的内外因素都存在差异,如果忽略这些差异,会使得我们的规划、决策、评估等相关工作建立在不完全的信息基础之上,得出错误的结论。多角度、深层次地认识住宅子市场现象,充分挖掘城市住宅市场信息是本研究的目的之一 房价高居不下,物业税久未推广,其中一大技术难题是税基的确定。由于传统的评估方法存在缺陷,难以在短时间内对住宅进行大批量地评估。本研究的另一目的是尝试以杭州市为例,结合GIS技术以及城市住宅子市场信息,通过特征价格模型、空间计量模型等批量评估技术,建立一套客观高效且适宜于杭州市的住宅价格评估体系。 本文的主要工作和结论有： (1)系统梳理了区位理论、特征价格理论以及住宅子市场理论,本文研究的重点是对住宅市场的细分以及评估效果的比较,所以在文献梳理的过程中重点总结了住宅子市场划分方法以及住宅价格评估比较的方法。本文结合杭州市六大主城区2011年和2012年的数据资料,选取了涵盖建筑特征、邻里特征和区位特征的12个因素作为研究的变量并对其进行量化和处理。 (2)基于景观CBD、城市河流-交通要道分布两个视角对杭州市住宅市场进行空间层面的划分以及采用聚类分析方法进行非空间层面的划分,得到圈层、网状以及非空间聚类这三种不同类型的子市场结构；并通过Chow检验证明了这三大类住宅子市场的显著性。结论表明杭州市住宅市场存在多种空间和非空间的子市场结构。 (3)基于整体市场以及各子市场分别构建了特征价格模型,并采用评估精度检验的方法分别比较了在同类子市场结构中划分前后的评估效果,同时也比较了这三类子市场结构的整体市场评估效果。结论表明：划分后的各子市场模型的评估效果在统计意义上显著高于划分前的整体市场；就整体市场而言,评估效果最好的是网状结构市场模型,其次是聚类市场模型,最后是圈层结构市场模型。 (4)通过传统特征价格模型和空间计量模型的构建与比较,建立杭州市基准价格评估模型。分析中发现空间计量模型的估计效果优于传统特征价格模型,SEM模型的估计效果要优于SLM模型。最后结合杭州市住宅子市场信息对基准评估模型进行修正,得到适宜于杭州市的住宅价格评估体系。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the expansion of urban scale, and the heterogeneity of residential products, the sub-market of urban housing has gradually formed and become increasingly prominent. In different sub-markets, there are differences in both the final house price and the internal and external factors that affect the house price. If we ignore these differences, we will base our planning, decision making, evaluation and other related work on incomplete information. Come to a wrong conclusion. It is one of the purposes of this study to understand the phenomenon of housing sub-market from many angles and to fully excavate the information of urban housing market. The property tax has not been popularized for a long time. One of the major technical problems is the determination of tax base. Because of the defects of the traditional evaluation methods, it is difficult to evaluate the housing in large quantities in a short time. Another purpose of this study is to try to take Hangzhou as an example, combining GIS technology and sub-market information of urban housing, through the characteristic price model, spatial measurement model and other batch evaluation technology. To establish a set of objective and efficient housing price evaluation system suitable for Hangzhou. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) systematically combing the location theory, characteristic price theory and housing sub-market theory. Therefore, in the process of literature combing, the paper summarizes the method of submarket division and the method of housing price evaluation and comparison. Based on the data of the six major urban areas of Hangzhou in 2011 and 2012, this paper selects the architectural features. (2) based on landscape CBD, the distribution of urban rivers and traffic lanes is used to analyze the housing market in Hangzhou. (2) based on landscape CBD, the distribution of urban rivers and traffic lanes is used to analyze the residential market in Hangzhou City from the perspective of 12 factors of neighborhood characteristics and location characteristics. The division of surface and the division of non-spatial level by cluster analysis. Three different types of submarket structures are obtained: ring, mesh and non-spatial clustering, and the significance of these three submarkets is proved by Chow's test. The conclusion shows that there are many spatial and non-spatial submarket structures in Hangzhou housing market. (3) based on the whole market and each sub-market, the characteristic price model is constructed. The evaluation effect before and after dividing the same sub-market structure is compared by using the method of evaluation precision test, and the overall market evaluation effect of these three sub-market structures is also compared. The results show that the evaluation effect of each sub-market model after division is statistically higher than that of the whole market before the division, and the best one is the net-structure market model, followed by the cluster market model, as far as the overall market is concerned. Finally, the ring structure market model. (4) through the construction and comparison of the traditional characteristic price model and the spatial measurement model, the Hangzhou benchmark price evaluation model is established. It is found that the estimation effect of the spatial measurement model is better than that of the traditional feature price model and the SEM model is better than the SLM model. Finally, based on the information of housing sub-market in Hangzhou, the benchmark evaluation model is revised, and the housing price evaluation system suitable for Hangzhou is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23
本文编号：2122604
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the expansion of urban scale, and the heterogeneity of residential products, the sub-market of urban housing has gradually formed and become increasingly prominent. In different sub-markets, there are differences in both the final house price and the internal and external factors that affect the house price. If we ignore these differences, we will base our planning, decision making, evaluation and other related work on incomplete information. Come to a wrong conclusion. It is one of the purposes of this study to understand the phenomenon of housing sub-market from many angles and to fully excavate the information of urban housing market. The property tax has not been popularized for a long time. One of the major technical problems is the determination of tax base. Because of the defects of the traditional evaluation methods, it is difficult to evaluate the housing in large quantities in a short time. Another purpose of this study is to try to take Hangzhou as an example, combining GIS technology and sub-market information of urban housing, through the characteristic price model, spatial measurement model and other batch evaluation technology. To establish a set of objective and efficient housing price evaluation system suitable for Hangzhou. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) systematically combing the location theory, characteristic price theory and housing sub-market theory. Therefore, in the process of literature combing, the paper summarizes the method of submarket division and the method of housing price evaluation and comparison. Based on the data of the six major urban areas of Hangzhou in 2011 and 2012, this paper selects the architectural features. (2) based on landscape CBD, the distribution of urban rivers and traffic lanes is used to analyze the housing market in Hangzhou. (2) based on landscape CBD, the distribution of urban rivers and traffic lanes is used to analyze the residential market in Hangzhou City from the perspective of 12 factors of neighborhood characteristics and location characteristics. The division of surface and the division of non-spatial level by cluster analysis. Three different types of submarket structures are obtained: ring, mesh and non-spatial clustering, and the significance of these three submarkets is proved by Chow's test. The conclusion shows that there are many spatial and non-spatial submarket structures in Hangzhou housing market. (3) based on the whole market and each sub-market, the characteristic price model is constructed. The evaluation effect before and after dividing the same sub-market structure is compared by using the method of evaluation precision test, and the overall market evaluation effect of these three sub-market structures is also compared. The results show that the evaluation effect of each sub-market model after division is statistically higher than that of the whole market before the division, and the best one is the net-structure market model, followed by the cluster market model, as far as the overall market is concerned. Finally, the ring structure market model. (4) through the construction and comparison of the traditional characteristic price model and the spatial measurement model, the Hangzhou benchmark price evaluation model is established. It is found that the estimation effect of the spatial measurement model is better than that of the traditional feature price model and the SEM model is better than the SLM model. Finally, based on the information of housing sub-market in Hangzhou, the benchmark evaluation model is revised, and the housing price evaluation system suitable for Hangzhou is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23
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