保障性住房和商品住房协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 21:59

【摘要】：近年来，住宅市场蓬勃发展的同时出现了一些问题，其中的主要问题为商品住房价格的上涨幅度大大超过了消费者的购买能力，致使一些中低消费人群的住房需求得不到满足。为了解决中低消费人群的住房问题以及控制商品住房价格的上涨幅度，国家和地方政府纷纷出台各种政策进行调控，保障性住房随之发展加速。然而，保障性住房的建设并不是越多越好，其发展应与商品住房市场的发展相适应，达到协调发展，进而促使整个住宅市场健康发展。本文在借鉴前人研究的基础上，提出了判断保障性住房和商品住房协调发展的具体思路，即在满足需求总量的前提下，通过合理调整保障性住房和商品住房的供给比例，进而影响商品住房的价格，，取得合理的房价收入比。紧接着以供需理论、效率理论和保障理论作为主要理论支撑，在深入分析了影响住宅市场供给、需求及价格的各种因素后，综合考虑了保障性住房和商品住房之间的互动机理，根据系统动力学理论定义各变量及判断变量的性质，在建立住宅市场系统因果反馈图的基础上建立了住宅市场系统流图，完成了住宅市场系统动力学理论模型构建。随后，以西安市为例，采用2003年相应数值作为变量的初始值，运行已建立的住宅市场系统动力学模型，对2003年-2020年西安市住宅市场进行了模拟仿真，并对模型的有效性进行了检验；在此基础上，预测了2014-2020年的西安市住宅市场发展趋势，并且通过改变首付比例、融资渠道、政府支持程度、保障性住房的供给量等可控变量进行大量模拟仿真，来确定各个变量的改变对系统中其他变量的影响，最终确定保障性住房和商品住房协调发展时，二者的供给比例为21.88%:78.12%。根据文章的研究结论，提出可以通过合理控制保障性住房供给量、提高政府支持程度与鼓励企业参与建设保障性住房、调控商品住房供给量以及将部分商品住房转化为保障性住房等政策来促进保障性住房和商品住房协调发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, some problems have emerged while the housing market is booming. The main problem is that the increase of commodity housing price greatly exceeds the purchasing ability of consumers, which leads to the unsatisfied housing demand of some middle and low consuming people. In order to solve the housing problem of middle and low consuming people and to control the rise of commodity housing prices, the government and local governments have issued various policies to regulate and control, and the development of affordable housing has been accelerated. However, the construction of indemnificatory housing is not as much as possible. Its development should be adapted to the development of commodity housing market to achieve harmonious development, and then promote the healthy development of the whole housing market. On the basis of previous studies, this paper puts forward a concrete way of thinking to judge the harmonious development of affordable housing and commodity housing, that is, on the premise of satisfying the total demand, the supply ratio of affordable housing and commodity housing is adjusted reasonably. And then affect the price of commodity housing, to obtain a reasonable ratio of house prices to income. Then, taking the supply and demand theory, efficiency theory and security theory as the main theoretical support, after deeply analyzing the various factors affecting the supply, demand and price of the housing market, the interactive mechanism between the indemnificatory housing and the commodity housing is considered synthetically. According to the theory of system dynamics, this paper defines the properties of variables and judgment variables, establishes the system flow chart of residential market system on the basis of establishing the system causality feedback diagram of residential market, and completes the theoretical model of housing market system dynamics. Then, taking Xi'an as an example, using the corresponding value of 2003 as the initial value of the variable, running the established system dynamics model of housing market, the housing market of Xi'an from 2003 to 2020 is simulated and simulated. The validity of the model is tested, on the basis of which, the trend of housing market in Xi'an from 2014-2020 is forecasted, and the degree of government support by changing the proportion of down payment, financing channels, and the degree of government support is predicted. A large number of controlled variables, such as the supply of affordable housing, are simulated to determine the influence of the change of each variable on other variables in the system. Finally, when the supportable housing and commodity housing develop harmoniously, the supply ratio of them is 21.88: 78.12. According to the conclusion of the paper, it is suggested that the supply of affordable housing can be controlled reasonably, the degree of government support can be improved and enterprises should be encouraged to participate in the construction of affordable housing. The policies of regulating the supply of commodity housing and transforming some commodity housing into affordable housing promote the harmonious development of affordable housing and commodity housing.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

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