进口如何影响了文化贸易联系持续期

发布时间：2018-03-11 17:37

本文选题：贸易联系持续期　切入点：负二项分布模型　出处：《经济与管理研究》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：如何看待一国进口对于贸易联系持续期的影响效应?与以往对贸易联系持续期的分析多聚焦在出口目的国等宏观层面,本文基于微观产品层面视角,采用负二项分布等多种估计模型,对文化产品进口的影响效应进行了实证分析。本文发现,进口对于文化产品的贸易联系持续期具有一定的促进效应,并且这种影响效应显著存在于贸易持续期较短的样本,即进口能够提升出口商的"学习效应",降低文化出口的生存风险。同样,较低的出口价格、较高的初始贸易额对于贸易联系持续期的稳定也具有一定的正向影响。本文多种稳健性估计结果均验证了上述结论。因此,要审慎认识和把握文化产品进口对于贸易平稳发展的重要意义,适时调整文化贸易政策,这可能有利于中国文化贸易国际竞争力的提升。
[Abstract]:What is the impact of a country's imports on the duration of trade links? Compared with the previous analysis of the duration of trade links, this paper focuses on the macro-level, such as export destination countries. Based on the micro-product perspective, this paper uses a variety of estimation models, such as negative binomial distribution, etc. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the effects of the import of cultural products on the duration of trade links of cultural products, and finds that the effects of import on the duration of trade links of cultural products are significant in the samples with shorter duration of trade. That is, imports can enhance the "learning effect" of exporters and reduce the survival risks of cultural exports. Similarly, lower export prices, A higher initial trade volume also has a positive effect on the stability of the trade link duration. The above conclusions are verified by various robust estimates in this paper. It is necessary to carefully understand and grasp the importance of the import of cultural products to the steady development of trade and adjust the policy of cultural trade at the right time, which may be conducive to the promotion of the international competitiveness of China's cultural trade.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学经济学院;中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“提高中国文化贸易出口品质的理论基础和政策途径研究”(15BH108)
【分类号】：F752.62;G124

【参考文献】