二维质保策略下的产品索赔预测与维修策略设计研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 05:23

本文选题：产品质量保证 + 二维质保产品　；参考：《天津大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：随着市场竞争的加剧以及消费者自我保护意识的增强,制造企业的竞争重点已经逐渐从单纯的产品质量、价格等因素转向了成本、质量与可靠性、产品质量保证服务等因素上来。本文以典型的二维质保产品-挖掘机产品为例,对产品质保索赔预测以及质保策略设计分别进行了研究。第一,完全维修与最小维修下二维质保产品索赔预测。产品的质保索赔预测是质保其他领域研究的基础。文中分别构建了完全维修和最小维修下的质保索赔预测模型,探讨了产品寿命与累计使用度对二维质保产品可靠性的共同影响,利用仿真实验进行了模型验证。研究结果表明,上述两种模型具有良好的预测精度。第二,不完全维修下二维质保产品索赔预测。失效产品在经历不同的维修方式后,会表现出不同的随机过程。本文构建了不完全维修下的质保索赔预测模型,探讨了消费者使用率对产品可靠性及预测模型的影响,利用国内挖掘机厂商提供的真实索赔数据对模型进行了验证。在实验中,分别选取了低、中、高三种使用率情况下的数据,来验证消费者使用率对索赔预测模型的影响。研究结果表明,考虑消费者使用率的预测模型的预测值表现出了与真实数据良好的拟合。第三,二维质保新产品的索赔预测。本文构建了新产品的索赔预测模型。然后,利用两阶段算法来预测新产品的质保索赔数并探讨了消费者使用率对新产品索赔预测模型的影响。最后,利用仿真技术对模型进行验证。研究结果表明,考虑使用率的模型的预测精度高于名义使用率下模型的预测精度。第四,二维质保产品维修策略设计。本文以制造商的质保服务成本最低为目标,构建了基础质保范围内的期望质保服务成本模型,并利用数学规划模型得到了最优的预防性维修次数和维修程度。利用仿真技术对模型进行验证和参数的敏感性分析。研究结果表明,该成本优化模型可以有效的降低制造商的质保服务成本,为制造商质保服务策略的制定提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:With the intensification of market competition and the enhancement of consumers' self-protection consciousness, the competition focus of manufacturing enterprises has gradually shifted from pure product quality, price and other factors to cost, quality and reliability. Product quality assurance service and other factors come up. In this paper, a typical two-dimensional quality assurance product, excavator product, is taken as an example to study the prediction of product quality assurance claim and the design of quality assurance strategy. First, full maintenance and minimum maintenance under two-dimensional warranty product claims prediction. The prediction of product claim is the basis of other fields of QAQ. In this paper, the prediction models of quality assurance claim under complete maintenance and minimum maintenance are constructed, and the effects of product life and cumulative usage on the reliability of two-dimensional quality assurance are discussed, and the model is verified by simulation experiments. The results show that the two models have good prediction accuracy. Second, two-dimensional quality assurance product claim forecast under incomplete maintenance. Failure products will exhibit different stochastic processes after different maintenance modes. In this paper, the prediction model of quality assurance claim under incomplete maintenance is constructed, and the influence of consumer utilization rate on product reliability and prediction model is discussed. The model is verified by the real claim data provided by domestic excavator manufacturers. In the experiment, the data of low, middle and high utilization rate were selected to verify the influence of consumer usage on claim prediction model. The results show that the predicted values of the model, which takes into account the consumer utilization rate, fit well with the real data. Third, two-dimensional quality assurance of the new product claims forecast. In this paper, a new product claim prediction model is constructed. Then, the two-stage algorithm is used to predict the number of claims for new products and the influence of consumer utilization rate on the prediction model of new product claims is discussed. Finally, the simulation technology is used to verify the model. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model considering the utilization rate is higher than that of the model with nominal utilization rate. Fourth, two-dimensional quality assurance product maintenance strategy design. Aiming at the lowest cost of quality assurance service of manufacturer, this paper constructs a model of expected quality assurance service cost within the scope of basic quality assurance, and obtains the optimal preventive maintenance times and maintenance degree by using mathematical programming model. The simulation technology is used to verify the model and the sensitivity analysis of the parameters. The results show that the cost optimization model can effectively reduce the cost of quality assurance services of manufacturers and provide decision support for the policy making of quality assurance services of manufacturers.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F273.2

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