中国农业银行股权价值评估

发布时间：2018-02-23 20:25

本文关键词： 价值评估权益现金流市盈率市净率竞争力　出处：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2011年底,我国16家上市银行总市值占沪深两市总市值的1／3,可见银行板块是大盘的权重板块。四大国有商业银行作为我国金融改革和经济发展的中坚力量,其股本占据我国A股市场前四名的座位,但其资本市场表现却是不如具有相同会计指标的其他行业的上市公司。农业银行是四大国有商业银行中最后上市的一家,股价是四大行中最低的,以其为代表探究其内在价值对于发现银行股是否处于合理价位具有一定的意义。另外,通过竞争力评级体系对对四大银行的综合竞争力进行对比分析,这为农业银行提升其股权价值以缩小与兄弟行之间的差距也具有一定的借鉴意义。本文总体上分为两个部分。第一部分主要对农业银行的股权价值作详细的预测估算；第二部分主要探究四大国有商业银行综合竞争力差距所在根源,从而提出提升农业银行股权价值之策略。第一部分通过对企业价值评估经典理论和目前常用评估方法的回顾,针对商业银行特点,选取了权益现金流贴现模型作为我国农业银行的主要估值方法,对影响估值模型的各参数进行了逐个估算,最终得到其理论价值,并以乘数法模型中的市盈率和市净率法加以辅助验证。经预测,权益现金流折现法估算出2011年末农业银行的每股价值为3.19元,市盈率法计算出的每股价值为2.58元,市净率法计算出的每股价值为2.72元。鉴于各种方法的优劣点,从而得出结论：农业银行的市场股价被低估的,由此也可以反映出我国银行股的价格是被低估的。第二部分首先从企业竞争力与企业价值的相关关系入手,然后主要通过CAMEL评级体系对四大银行的综合竞争力进行对比分析,并对各指标进行了赋值以计算四大国有商业银行五个指标排名及综合排名,分析发现中国农业银行在资本实力、资产管理、管理能力及盈利水平方面均不如另三家国有商业银行,进而提出从这四个方面提升其股权价值的政策建议,即充实资本实力并加强资产管理以实现稳健经营,深化人力资产改革以提高经营管理能力,明确市场定位并大力发展中间业务以提高盈利能力。
[Abstract]:In end of 2011, market value, the general manager of 16 listed banks in China, accounted for a third of the total market value in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. It can be seen that the banking sector is the weight plate of the market. The four major state-owned commercial banks are the backbone of China's financial reform and economic development. Its share capital occupies the top four seats in China's A-share market, but its capital market performance is not as good as that of listed companies in other industries with the same accounting indicators. The Agricultural Bank of China is the last of the four state-owned commercial banks to list on the market. The stock price is the lowest among the four banks. It is of certain significance to find out whether the bank shares are at a reasonable price or not. In addition, through the competitive rating system, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the comprehensive competitiveness of the four major banks. This also has certain reference significance for Agricultural Bank to enhance its equity value to narrow the gap between the bank and its brothers. This paper is divided into two parts as a whole. The first part mainly estimates the equity value of the Agricultural Bank in detail; the second part mainly explores the root causes of the gap between the four state-owned commercial banks' comprehensive competitiveness. Thus, the paper puts forward the strategy of improving the equity value of Agricultural Bank. In the first part, according to the characteristics of commercial banks, the discounted cash flow model is selected as the main valuation method of Agricultural Bank of China. The parameters affecting the valuation model are estimated one by one, and the theoretical value is finally obtained. The method of price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio in the multiplier method is used to verify the model. In end of 2011, the discounted cash flow of equity method estimated the value per share of Agricultural Bank of China was 3.19 yuan, the value per share calculated by the price-to-earnings ratio method was 2.58 yuan, and the value per share calculated by the price-to-book ratio method was 2.72 yuan. In view of the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods, The conclusion is that the stock price of Agricultural Bank of China is undervalued, which also reflects that the price of China's bank stock is undervalued. The second part begins with the relationship between the competitiveness of enterprises and the value of enterprises, and then compares and analyzes the comprehensive competitiveness of the four major banks through the CAMEL rating system. And the index was assigned to calculate the four state-owned commercial banks five index rankings and comprehensive ranking, analysis found that the agricultural bank of China in capital strength, asset management, The management ability and profit level of the other three state-owned commercial banks are inferior to those of the other three state-owned commercial banks, and then put forward some policy suggestions to enhance their equity value from these four aspects, that is, to enrich capital strength and strengthen asset management to achieve sound management. Deepen the reform of human assets to improve the management ability, clear the market position and vigorously develop intermediary business to improve profitability.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33;F832.51

【参考文献】