东盟贸易政策的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 19:16

  本文选题：东盟　切入点：贸易政策　出处：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：东盟国家是新兴经济体的重要代表,二战后创造的经济增长奇迹为世界所瞩目。东盟的区域经济一体化和贸易自由化是发展中国家在经济全球化和区域经济一体化进程中成功进行合作的典范。东盟国家虽然受到发展中国家经济发展水平的制约,但其经济效应仍然比较显著,非传统利益也是东盟国家一体化的目标之一。自1967年东盟成立以来,东盟区域经济一体化的合作曲折前进,从最初的重视不够,认识不够,到有意识的推进,在东盟特殊的政治、历史和文化因素影响下,形成了东盟国家在区域合作中特有的“东盟方式”(ASEAN Way)。随着经济全球化浪潮的发展和国际区域经济一体化的进程的加快,东盟国家不断克服现实中存在的问题,在20世纪90年代初期东盟决心把区域经济一体化作为其最终的发展目标。至今,东盟的经济一体化正在结出硕果,其标志是东盟本身不断扩大,由最初的6个国家发展到10个国家,而且东盟分别与中国、美国、日本和韩国的合作不断深化,在东亚地区形成“10+3”合作模式。中国-东盟自由贸易区的建成和发展,东盟内部国家经济联系与合作的加深,使得东盟已成为国际社会一支重要的经济与政治力量。 本文通过文献研究、抽象历史思维分析、理论分析、实证分析、定性和定量相结合的分析方法对东盟国家的贸易政策及其经济效应进行研究,较全面的分析了东盟国家贸易自由化政策的形成、发展、特点以及对东盟地区国家经济增长、就业水平和中国对其直接投资与贸易流量等方面的影响,分析东盟贸易政策的演变以及贸易政策在东盟主要国家中实施的情况,使用搜集到的统计数据描述和计量分析的实证方法定量分析了东盟贸易政策的实施效果,实证检验了东盟贸易政策对东盟国家内部的经济增长和就业水平的影响以及对中国-东盟自由贸易区的经济效应。东盟国家贸易自由化政策的形成和发展受到的各种经济理论、政治因素、历史文化因素的影响。东盟国家的贸易自由化政策对本地区的经济增长和就业起到了较明显的积极作用,虽然不同国家由于经济发展水平和政治文化差异呈现不平衡的状况。东盟国家的贸易开放政策对中国-东盟自由贸易区进程的加快也起到了促进作用。 本文使用了扩展的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,把贸易开放水平作为内生的技术进步因素引入到生产函数中,建立计量经济模型实证分析了东盟国家贸易自由化政策对本地区国家的经济增长的影响效应,构建东盟国家贸易开放度与就业水平的计量经济模型,研究东盟国家贸易自由化政策对本地区就业的影响。通过分析中国对东盟国家直接投资和商品服务贸易与东盟国家贸易开放水平的定量关系,研究东盟国家的贸易自由化政策对中国投资东盟和进出口的影响效应,为中国-东盟自由贸易区的建成发展提供对策建议。 本文一共分为6章。 第1章为导论,阐述了文章的研究背景和意义,对相关的研究文献进行了综合评述,并就论文的研究方法和主要内容作了简要概括,列举了本文的创新点和不足。 第2章为本文的理论基础部分,梳理了国际经济学理论中关于贸易政策的各种理论,包括重商主义学派、古典贸易理论、新古典贸易理论和战略性贸易理论,特别分析了这些主要理论关于贸易政策的主张。 第3章通过文献研究的方法概括了东盟国家的贸易自由化政策的形成、经济一体化进程和贸易自由化政策对本地区国家经济发展、产业结构和技术进步等方面的影响,分析了东盟国家在形成统一的贸易自由化政策和区域经济一体化合作中所受到的政治经济文化的影响和各种不同经济理论的指导。 第4章通过收集东盟各国对外贸易的经济数据,描述了东盟国家在实施贸易自由化政策后对本国和地区的贸易流量的影响,说明贸易开放政策促进了本地区的贸易流量。从贸易自由化政策对经济增长和就业水平的影响两个方面,通过建立计量经济学模型使用相应的数据实证研究东盟国家的贸易开放水平对成员国经济增长和就业水平的影响效应。 第5章首先简要回顾了东盟国家与中国进行区域经济一体化合作和中国-东盟自由贸易区发展的历史和前景,然后使用计量经济学实证分析的方法研究东盟国家的贸易开放政策对中国直接投资(包括流量和存量)东盟和进出口的影响效应。 第6章在以上理论和实证分析的基础上,对全文进行了总结并从中国的角度提出相应的对策建议。从东盟地区的复杂情况来看,目前东盟国家的贸易自由化政策对本地区和中国与东盟双边的贸易影响仍然有限,主要受到国际政治、国际关系和安全等因素的制约较明显,因此经济一体化合作一方面需要国家间的政治稳定保障,另一方面,经济合作也会对双边的政治互信带来推动作用。 本文的结论认为,东盟国家的贸易自由化政策对本地区的经济增长和就业都起到了较明显的积极作用,虽然不同国家由于经济发展水平和政治文化差异而呈现不平衡的状况。东盟国家的贸易开放政策加快了中国-东盟自由贸易区的进程,对双边直接投资和贸易流量的增长具有显著的促进作用。
[Abstract]:ASEAN is an important representative of emerging economies, after World War II created the miracle of economic growth attracted the attention of the world. The ASEAN regional economic integration and trade liberalization is developing a model of successful cooperation in economic globalization and regional economic integration process in ASEAN countries. Although restricted by the level of economic development in developing countries, but its economic effect is still significantly, one goal of non traditional interest is the integration of ASEAN countries. Since 1967 the establishment of ASEAN, ASEAN regional economic integration cooperation from the twists and turns, not enough attention, the initial understanding is not enough, to promote awareness of the ASEAN in the special political, historical and cultural factors, forming a unique region in ASEAN countries cooperation in the "ASEAN Way" (ASEAN Way). With the economic globalization and the development of international regional economic integration To accelerate the process of ASEAN countries continue to overcome the problems existing in reality, at the beginning of 1990s, ASEAN is determined to regional economic integration as its ultimate development goal. So far, ASEAN economic integration is the fruits, it is marked by the development of ASEAN itself continues to expand, the first 6 to 10 countries, and ASEAN respectively. With Chinese, the United States, Japan and South Korea have deepened cooperation in East Asia, the formation of the "10+3" mode of cooperation. Chinese completed and development of ASEAN Free Trade Area, the ASEAN countries to deepen economic ties and cooperation, the ASEAN has become the international community an important economic and political power.
This article through the literature research, analysis, abstract historical thinking, theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, research and analysis both qualitative and quantitative methods for ASEAN countries trade policy and economic effects, a comprehensive analysis of the formation of free trade policy in the development of the ASEAN countries, and the characteristics of the national economic growth in the ASEAN region, direct investment and trade flows and other aspects of the employment level and China, analysis of the evolution of ASEAN trade policy and trade policy in the major countries in ASEAN, the use of quantitative empirical analysis of statistical data description and measurement of the collected analysis the effect of ASEAN trade policy, an empirical analysis of the influence of ASEAN trade policy the ASEAN countries within the level of economic growth and employment and economic effects on the Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area of ASEAN free trade policy. All kinds of economic theory, the formation and development of policy by political factors, historical and cultural factors. The influence of trade liberalization policy in ASEAN countries a positive role for the region's economic growth and employment, while different countries because of the level of economic development and political and cultural differences and unbalanced situation. To speed up the ASEAN countries the trade policy on Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area also plays a role.
This paper uses the extended Cobb Douglas production function, the technology progress level of openness as the endogenous factors into the production function, an econometric model and empirical analysis of the effect of trade liberalization policies of ASEAN countries in the region's economic growth, constructing an econometric model of ASEAN trade openness and employment the level of influence of ASEAN trade liberalization policies on local employment. Through the analysis of the relationship between Chinese direct investment to ASEAN countries and trade in goods and services trade with ASEAN countries the level of opening up the quantitative effect of trade liberalization policy of ASEAN countries and ASEAN Investment China influence on import and export, and provide suggestions and strategies for Chinese ASEAN Free trade area development.
This article is divided into 6 chapters.
The first chapter is the introduction, which describes the background and significance of the article, reviews the related research literatures, and summarizes the research methods and main contents of the paper, listing the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis of this thesis, analyzes various theories about trade policy theory in international economics, including mercantilism school, classical trade theory, new classical trade theory and strategic trade theory, especially analyzes the claims that the main theories about trade policy.
The third chapter summarizes the formation of trade liberalization policies of ASEAN countries through literature research methods, the process of economic integration and trade liberalization policies on national economic development in the region, the influence of industrial structure and technological progress, analyzes the influence of the ASEAN countries in the form of trade liberalization policy and regional economic integration cooperation unified in the political and economic culture and different economic theory.
The fourth chapter through the economic data collection of ASEAN foreign trade, describes the impact of the ASEAN countries of trade flows on the country and region in the implementation of trade liberalization policy, that open trade policies to promote trade flows in the area. By two aspects affect the length and level of employment to the economy from the trade liberalization policy, through the establishment of econometric models using empirical data on the corresponding ASEAN trade liberalization impact on the members of the level of economic growth and employment effects.
The fifth chapter reviews the history and Prospect of ASEAN regional economic integration and cooperation Chinese - the development of ASEAN Free Trade Area and China, then use the ASEAN trade policy research methods empirical econometric analysis of direct investment China (including stock and flow) effect of ASEAN and import and export.
The sixth chapter analysis the above theoretical and empirical analysis, summarizes the whole thesis and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of Chinese. From the complex situation in the ASEAN region, the trade liberalization policy of ASEAN countries in the region and China ASEAN bilateral trade influence is still limited, mainly by the international politics. The constraints of international relations and security factors are obvious, so the economic integration cooperation between countries to safeguard political stability, on the other hand, economic cooperation will also have a role in promoting the bilateral political mutual trust.
The paper concludes that the trade liberalization policy of ASEAN countries of the region's economic growth and employment has played a positive role is obvious, although different countries and unbalanced condition due to the level of economic development and political and cultural differences. ASEAN countries open trade policy to speed up China ASEAN Free Trade Zone process that has significant effect on the bilateral trade flows of direct investment and growth.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F114.46;F752.7
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本文编号：1635631