产品内贸易对国际经济周期的传导研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 17:01

  本文关键词：产品内贸易对国际经济周期的传导研究　出处：《浙江大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 产品内贸易 国际经济周期 IMT-GEM模型 危机性贸易“超调”

【摘要】：当今国际经济基本面有两个值得关注的“新现象”,一是经济周期越来越困扰着世界经济的发展,尤其是2007年的美国次贷危机“肆虐”全球,一再打破学界与政界的预测,警醒人们对经济周期研究的重视。二是随着国际分工的深化,产品内贸易已成为经济全球化的重要特征与世界经济发展的重要驱动力,同时亦为经济周期的研究提供了新视野。然而,将产品内贸易引入经济周期的研究,直至上世纪90年代才开始,且此工作进展迟缓。因此,本课题的提出具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本文统计描述了近20年来危机冲击下的贸易波动三类特征事实。第一类为危机对总体贸易的影响现象：美国次贷危机对“三角贸易”模式、中国总出口贸易的影响；第二类为危机对行业贸易的影响：美国次贷危机对中间产品部门贸易比对非中间产品部门贸易的影响大,以及美国次贷危机比亚洲金融危机对中国出口贸易特别是机电产品出口贸易的影响大；第三类为危机性贸易“超调”现象：2011年日本大地震导致的产品内分工最为集中的电子、汽车行业全球供应链的“解钩”现象,以及美国次贷危机期间的贸易大波动现象。发展了一个基于产品内贸易模式的加入中间产品生产与贸易的“2×2×3”的全球经济模型(IMT-GEM)。模型的演绎逻辑为,在IMT-GEM模型中求导,发现当其他经济条件不变时模型得到稳态解,国际经济周期协动性自然生成。然后依据2007年美国次贷危机期间贸易是顺周期的特征建立跨国矩阵理论模型,模型显示出了中间产品存贷效应对贸易波动的传导机制,由此反向印证了产品内贸易对国际经济周期的传导效应。在此基础上,本文给出了6个理论命题。基于三个视角分别就产品内贸易对国际经济周期的传导机理进行了实证。一是基于总体视角,利用中国、东亚区域及欧美区域经济体的面板数据检验发现,垂直专业化对国际经济周期具有显著正向传导效应,而且该结论对于中间产品贸易也具有稳健性；二是基于行业视角,利用上述经济体的不同类型要素密集度行业中间产品贸易面板数据检验发现,随着资本／技术密集型强流动要素中间产品贸易向劳动／资源密集型中间产品贸易的转变,它们对国际经济周期的传导效应亦随之下降。表明要素流动性强弱与国际经济周期协同性呈正相关；三是基于危机冲击视角,分别利用跨国时间序列数据就最终产品需求冲击对中间产品贸易的影响进行了估计,以及利用出口绩效面板模型对危机冲击的中间产品存贷效应传导机制进行了检验。所有估计结果均支持理论预期。基于全文的理论分析与经验研究结论,提出了正确把握产品内贸易对国际经济周期传导的这把“双刃剑”两方面建议：一是构建“垂直水平型分工”模式的国际生产网络,分散产品内分工系统风险,提高经济增长的可靠性。二是通过自身培育和国外引进高级要素,实现中国经济由目前的国际经济周期协动性的随波者,逐步攀升为国际经济周期协动性的主导者。
[Abstract]:In today's international economic fundamentals have two noteworthy "new phenomenon", one is the economic cycle increasingly plagued the development of the world economy, especially the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis "in 2007 the raging global break repeatedly forecast the academic and political, to alert people to attach importance to the study of the economic cycle is two. With the deepening of international division of labor, the intra product trade has become an important driving force of economic globalization and important characteristics of world economic development, but also provides a new perspective for the study of economic cycle. However, the research on intra product trade into the economic cycle, until the last century began in 90s, and the slow progress. Therefore, has the important theory the value and significance of the topic of the paper. This paper describes the statistics of nearly 20 years of crisis under the impact of Trade Fluctuation Characteristics of three types of fact. The first category is the overall impact of the crisis on trade phenomenon: The U.S. subprime crisis on the "triangular trade" mode, influence China total export trade; second is the impact of the crisis on Trade: the impact of the U.S. subprime crisis on the intermediate goods sector than non trade of intermediate products trade department, as well as the subprime crisis in the United States than the Asian financial crisis of China export trade especially the export of electromechanical products the third category of trade; trade crisis "overshoot" phenomenon: the 2011 earthquake in Japan caused by intra product specialization, the most concentrated solution of electronic, automotive industry hook "phenomenon of the global supply chain", and during the subprime crisis of the United States Trade Fluctuation phenomenon. The development of the production and trade based on intra product join the trade pattern of intermediate products "2 x 2 x 3" global economic model (IMT-GEM). The deductive logic model for derivation, found in the IMT-GEM model, while the rest of the economy. A constant model to get the steady solution of international economic comovement naturally. Then according to the 2007 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis during the trade cycle is characteristic of establishing transnational matrix theory model. The model shows that the conduction mechanism of the intermediate product deposit effect on trade fluctuations, which confirms the reverse conduction effect of intra product trade on the international economic cycle. On this basis, this paper gives 6 theoretical propositions. Three aspects were carried out empirical conduction mechanism of intra product trade on the international economic cycle based. One is based on the overall perspective, using the panel data of China, East Asia and Europe regional economy test showed that the vertical specialization has positive conduction the effect of international economic cycle, and the conclusion is also robust for the intermediate product trade; the two is based on the industry perspective, the same is not the economy The type of factor intensity industry intermediate product trade panel data test shows that, with the capital / technology intensive strong flow of factors of intermediate goods trade to change labor / resource intensive intermediate product trade, in international economic cycle conduction effect also decreased. The factor mobility, strength and international economic cycle coordination was positively correlated; the three is based on the perspective of crisis, using time series data on multinational end product demand impact on trade of intermediate products were estimated, and the use of export performance panel model to crisis impact of intermediate product deposit effect of transmission mechanism are examined. All of the estimated results support the theoretical expectations. Conclusion the theoretical analysis and empirical Research Based on the proposed two aspects of the international transmission of economic cycle to correctly grasp the intra product trade which is a "double-edged sword" Suggestions: one is to construct a "vertical division" mode of international production network, decentralized intra product specialization system risk, improve the reliability of economic growth. The two is through its own cultivation and introduction of foreign advanced factors, to achieve economic Chinese by international economic cycle co movement with the waves, rising gradually as the international economic cycle co movement leader.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F746;F113.7
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本文编号：1360638