罕见灾难风险和中国宏观经济波动

发布时间：2018-02-10 02:39

本文关键词： 灾难风险经济波动 RBC模型财政政策　出处：《经济研究》2014年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文构建了包含灾难风险因素的RBC模型,通过区分TFP(全要素生产率)灾难、资本灾难与双重灾难三种灾难形式,分析灾难风险因素对我国经济波动的解释能力,并在此基础上量化灾难事件对宏观经济的影响以及政府财政政策支持对灾后经济复苏的作用。研究发现:(1)含灾难RBC模型能够有效改善无灾难RBC模型对我国宏观经济波动的解释能力,且双重灾难模型对中国经济的解释力要明显优于TFP灾难和资本灾难模型;(2)灾难事件对我国经济的破坏性远大于美国,且对各经济变量的相对破坏程度也与美国相异;(3)适度的政府补贴能够有效削弱宏观经济受灾难冲击的程度,但在缩短灾后宏观经济复苏时间方面的效果并不明显。同时,本文还通过引入偏好冲击与资本调整成本来检验模型的稳健性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a RBC model with disaster risk factors is constructed. By distinguishing three types of disasters, total factor productivity (TFP) disaster, capital disaster and double disaster, the paper analyzes the ability of explaining the disaster risk factors to the economic fluctuation of our country. On this basis, the effects of disaster events on macro-economy and the role of government fiscal policy support on post-disaster economic recovery are quantified. It is found that the disaster-containing RBC model can effectively improve the impact of disaster-free RBC model on China's macroeconomic recovery. The explanatory power of economic fluctuations, Moreover, the dual disaster model is much more destructive than the TFP disaster and capital disaster model in explaining China's economy, and the disaster event is far more destructive to the Chinese economy than the United States. The degree of relative damage to various economic variables is also different from that of the United States.) moderate government subsidies can effectively weaken the extent of macroeconomic shocks, but the effect is not obvious in shortening the time of recovery after the disaster. At the same time, This paper also examines the robustness of the model by introducing preference shocks and capital adjustment costs.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;王亚南经济研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71071132)的资助
【分类号】：F124.8

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