山东省产业结构演进研究

发布时间：2018-02-22 15:34

本文关键词： 山东省产业结构演进 SSM法主成分分析　出处：《兰州商学院》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：山东省目前的经济发展面临许多关键性的问题：经济增长方式粗约化、资源浪费严重、经济结构失衡、产业结构不合理等等问题。“十二五”规划明确提出要转变经济增长方式，落实贯彻科学发展观，实现经济又好又快发展。本文运用产业结构熵、产业结构相似度指数、就业产业结构偏离度和偏差系数、偏离—份额分析法（SSM法）全面分析评价改革开放以来山东省产业结构的演进特征；利用主成分分析法找出了山东省产业结构演进的影响因素，，最后提出相应的政策建议。主要内容的结构安排如下：第一章引言介绍研究背景、意义和目的、研究方法以及本文创新与不足。第二章论述了有关产业结构演进的经典理论和国内外研究现状，并对相关研究做了简要评述。第三章首先分析了改革开放以来，山东省的产业结构发展与演进的大体趋势，包括三次产业产值结构与就业结构以及三次产业内部。其次利用多个统计指标实证分析改革开放以来山东省产业结构演进过程和特征。第四章选取了17个相关指标，建立了山东省产业结构影响因素的指标体系，利用主成分方法找出了影响山东省产业结构演进的主要因素。第五章提出相关的政策建议。第一产业的调整要注意两个方面:一是要以科技带动生产方式转型，努力实现由传统部门向现在部门的转变，二是要加快林业和农业服务业的发展。第二产业的调整重点在改变粗放的增长方式，走新型工业化道路；合理选择主导产业，升级传统产业，淘汰落后产业。应该大力发展第三产业，特别是加快现代服务业的发展，重点在发展生产性服务业；培育战略新兴产业，改造整合传统服务业。本文的主要结论：改革开放至今，山东省的经济发展迅速，三次产业结构、就业结构、三次产业内部结构被不断优化，基本符合工业化的规律。消费需求、城市化和对外贸易等的变化是产业结构演进的主要动力。仍然面临许多关键性问题，第一产业现代化水平不够，劳动力冗余，劳动生产率低，林业、现代农业服务业发展不足；第二产业高级化程度不够，增长方式粗放，环境污染严重；第三产业以传统服务业为主，缺乏现代性服务业，而且产值、就业比重低。
[Abstract]:The current economic development of Shandong Province is faced with many key problems: rough economic growth mode, serious waste of resources, imbalance of economic structure, unreasonable industrial structure, etc. The 12th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes to change the mode of economic growth. Implementation of the scientific concept of development to achieve sound and rapid economic development. This paper uses the entropy of industrial structure, the similarity index of industrial structure, the deviation degree and deviation coefficient of employment industrial structure, the SSM method of deviation-share analysis) to analyze and evaluate the evolution characteristics of industrial structure in Shandong Province since the reform and opening up. This paper finds out the influencing factors of the evolution of industrial structure in Shandong Province by principal component analysis, and finally puts forward corresponding policy suggestions. The main contents are as follows: the first chapter introduces the background, significance and purpose of the research, the research methods and the innovation and deficiency of this paper. Chapter two discusses the classical theory of industrial structure evolution and the current research situation at home and abroad. The third chapter analyzes the general trend of the development and evolution of Shandong's industrial structure since the reform and opening up. It includes the structure of output value and employment of three industries and the internal structure of three industries. Secondly, the evolution process and characteristics of industrial structure in Shandong Province since reform and opening up have been empirically analyzed by using a number of statistical indicators. Chapter 4th selects 17 related indicators. The index system of influencing factors of industrial structure in Shandong Province is established. By using the principal component method, we find out the main factors that influence the evolution of industrial structure in Shandong Province. Chapter 5th puts forward relevant policy recommendations. The adjustment of the primary industry should pay attention to two aspects: first, the transformation of production mode should be driven by science and technology. The second is to speed up the development of forestry and agricultural services. The focus of the adjustment of the secondary industry is to change the extensive growth pattern and take a new road to industrialization; and to rationally select the leading industries. In order to upgrade traditional industries and eliminate backward industries, we should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, especially the development of modern service industries, with emphasis on developing producer services, cultivate strategic emerging industries, and reform and integrate traditional services. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: since the reform and opening up to the outside world, the economy of Shandong Province has developed rapidly, the tertiary industrial structure, the employment structure and the internal structure of the tertiary industry have been continuously optimized, basically in line with the laws of industrialization. The changes of urbanization and foreign trade are the main driving force of the evolution of industrial structure, and still face many key problems, such as insufficient level of modernization of primary industry, redundant labor force, low labor productivity, insufficient development of forestry and modern agricultural service industry. The secondary industry is not advanced enough, the growth mode is extensive, the environment pollution is serious, the tertiary industry is based on the traditional service industry, lacks the modern service industry, and the output value is low, the employment proportion is low.
【学位授予单位】：兰州商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F279.2;F127

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