湖南省3E系统协调度评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 00:36

本文关键词： 能源-经济-环境(3E)系统层次分析法耦合协调度计量分析　出处：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的发展，人类对能源-经济-环境(3E)系统的认识逐渐加深，研究三者之间的综合平衡发展已经成为全球话题。如何实现能源-经济-环境(3E)系统协调发展，既能够保持经济快速增长，又能够高效运用资源，同时对环境影响程度最小，是目前急需解决的问题。湖南省属于典型的能源输入型省份，能源短缺已成为制约省内经济发展的重要因素。能源、经济与环境之间的矛盾变得日益突出，，了解三者目前的现状，分析三者之间的协调关系以及相互影响程度，是解决矛盾的前提。首先，对能源-经济-环境(3E)系统关系进行理论分析。主要是从能源消费与经济增长的关系、能源消费与环境污染的关系、经济增长与环境污染的关系、能源-经济-环境(3E)系统的协调发展这四个方面来研究。其次，对湖南省能源-经济-环境(3E)系统协调度进行评价。先分析湖南省能源生产与消费、环境发展、经济发展现状，湖南省目前经济发展迅速，能源消费需求巨大，能源资源相对不足。环境状况不容乐观，废气、废水、废渣对环境污染严重。然后建立3E系统协调度评价指标体系，利用耦合协调度模型测度湖南省2002-2011年的3E系统协调度。结果表明，2002年湖南省3E系统协调度属于轻度失调状态，2003-2011年3E系统协调度属于濒临失调状态。再次，对湖南省产业能源消费和经济增长进行计量分析。从产业结构角度分析三次产业能源消费与经济发展的关系，并建立对应的误差修正模型。研究发现，湖南省三次产业能源消费与经济增长都存在显著的协整关系，可以分别建立误差修正模型。第一产业、第二产业都存在经济增长对能源消费方向的单向格兰杰因果关系，第三产业存在经济增长对能源消费的双向格兰杰因果关系。最后，针对实证结果为湖南省3E系统协调发展提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and economy, the understanding of energy economy environment 3E) system is getting deeper and deeper. It has become a global topic to study the comprehensive balance development among the three systems. How to realize the coordinated development of energy economy environment system, It is a problem that needs to be solved urgently in Hunan Province, which can not only maintain rapid economic growth, but also make efficient use of resources, and at the same time have the least impact on the environment. Hunan Province is a typical energy-importing province. Energy shortage has become an important factor restricting the economic development of the province. The contradiction between energy, economy and environment has become increasingly prominent. It is a prerequisite for resolving contradictions. Firstly, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution, the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, and the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution are analyzed theoretically. The coordinated development of energy-economy-environment 3 E) system is studied in four aspects. Secondly, the coordination degree of energy, economy and environment in Hunan Province is evaluated. Firstly, the energy production and consumption, the development of environment and the present situation of economic development in Hunan Province are analyzed. At present, the economy of Hunan Province is developing rapidly, and the demand for energy consumption is huge. The energy resources are relatively insufficient. The environmental condition is not optimistic. The waste gas, waste water and waste residue pollute the environment seriously. Then the evaluation index system of 3e system coordination degree is established. The coordination degree of 3e system in Hunan Province from 2002 to 2011 is measured by using the coupling coordination degree model. The results show that in 2002 the coordination degree of 3e system in Hunan Province belongs to the state of slight maladjustment. From 2003 to 2011 the degree of coordination of 3e system in Hunan Province is on the verge of maladjustment. Thirdly, the econometric analysis of industrial energy consumption and economic growth in Hunan Province is carried out. From the angle of industrial structure, the relationship between energy consumption and economic development is analyzed, and the corresponding error correction model is established. There is a significant cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three industries in Hunan Province, and error correction models can be established separately. Both primary and secondary industries have one-way Granger causality between economic growth and energy consumption. The third industry has a two-way Granger causality between economic growth and energy consumption. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward for the coordinated development of Hunan 3e system.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F127;F224

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