金融依赖型产业脆弱性的测度与影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 17:27

本文选题：金融依赖　切入点：金融脆弱性　出处：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2007年由美国次贷危机引起的国际经济危机以及由此造成的巨大损失在各国引起了广泛的探讨和思考,经历经济危机的各经济体均为此付出了巨大经济与社会成本。产业脆弱性是指产业组织受内部和外部因素冲击而发生的波动和不稳定状态。经济危机频繁发生,说明产业脆弱性尤其是金融依赖型产业脆弱性程度严重;经济危机造成巨大经济损失,说明降低产业脆弱性有着必要性与重要意义。认识到金融发展没有显著降低产业脆弱性,众多学者对金融脆弱性和产业脆弱性展开了广泛而深入的研究,金融脆弱性和产业脆弱性成为金融理论和产业理论研究的前沿问题。首先,采用典型相关分析方法分析采掘业,制造业和电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业三大类产业的38个子行业发展对金融因素的依赖性。测算结果显示,煤炭开采和洗选业,农副食品加工业,纺织业,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业,化学原料和化学制品制造业,化学纤维制造业,橡胶和塑料制品业,非金属矿物制品业,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业,金属制品业,通用设备制造业,专用设备制造业等17个行业为金融依赖型产业。石油和天然气开采业,黑色金属矿采选业,有色金属矿采选业等21个行业为一般产业。其次,借助因子分析方法测算产业脆弱性综合得分。结果显示,金融依赖型产业脆弱性和一般产业脆弱性均存在显著的波动趋势基本保持一致,金融依赖型产业脆弱性均值要高于同期的一般产业脆弱性均值。金融依赖型产业脆弱性和一般产业脆弱性均呈现M形的变化趋势,具有明显的阶段性特征。金融依赖型产业脆弱性标准差和一般产业脆弱性标准差均呈现M形变化趋势,金融依赖型产业脆弱性波动幅度小于一般产业脆弱性波动幅度。最后,产业脆弱性影响因素研究发现,提高一年期贷款利率会导致产业脆弱性上升,一年期贷款利率波动对金融依赖型产业脆弱性的冲击大于对一般产业脆弱性;各项贷款规模扩大会导致产业脆弱性上升,各项贷款余额同比增长率波动对金融依赖型产业脆弱性的冲击大于一般产业;M2与金融机构存款比值的上升会降低产业的脆弱性,M2与金融机构存款比值升高对降低金融依赖型产业脆弱性的作用更强;营业税金及附加的增加会导致产业脆弱性上升;财务费用增加会强化产业的脆弱性,财务费用的波动对一般产业脆弱性的冲击要大于金融依赖型产业;企业劳动力人数增加会导致产业脆弱性上升。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the international economic crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the huge losses caused by it caused extensive discussion and thinking in various countries. Economies that have experienced economic crises have paid enormous economic and social costs. Industrial vulnerability refers to the volatility and instability of industrial organizations affected by internal and external factors. Economic crises occur frequently. It shows that the degree of industrial vulnerability, especially that of financial dependent industry, is serious, and that the economic crisis has caused huge economic losses, which shows that it is necessary and important to reduce industrial vulnerability. It is recognized that financial development has not significantly reduced industrial vulnerability. Many scholars have carried out extensive and in-depth research on financial vulnerability and industrial vulnerability. Financial vulnerability and industrial vulnerability have become the frontier of financial theory and industrial theory. Firstly, the typical correlation analysis method is used to analyze extractive industry. The development of 38 sub-industries in the manufacturing and electricity, gas and water production and supply industries depends on financial factors. The results show that the coal mining and washing industry, the agro-food processing industry, the textile industry, and the petroleum processing industry, Coking and nuclear fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, chemical fibre manufacturing, rubber and plastics products, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calender processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering, 17 industries, such as metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry and special equipment manufacturing industry, are financial dependent industries. 21 industries, such as petroleum and natural gas mining, ferrous metal mining and separation, non-ferrous metal mining and separation, are general industries. The results show that there is a significant fluctuation trend between financial dependent industry vulnerability and general industry vulnerability. The average value of financial dependent industry vulnerability is higher than that of general industry vulnerability in the same period. The financial dependence industry vulnerability standard deviation and the general industry vulnerability standard deviation both show M shape change trend, the financial dependent industry vulnerability fluctuation range is smaller than the general industry vulnerability fluctuation range. Finally, the financial dependent industry vulnerability standard deviation and the general industry vulnerability standard deviation all present the M-shape change tendency. The research on the influencing factors of industrial vulnerability found that the increase of one-year loan interest rate will lead to the increase of industrial vulnerability, and the impact of one-year loan interest rate fluctuation on financial dependent industry vulnerability is greater than that on general industry vulnerability. The scale of the loans will increase the vulnerability of the industry. The impact of the fluctuation of the growth rate of each loan balance on the vulnerability of the financial dependent industry is greater than that of the increase of the ratio of M2 to the deposit of the financial institution, which will reduce the vulnerability of the industry and the ratio of the increase of M2 to the deposit of the financial institution. The role of financial dependence industry vulnerability is stronger; The increase of operating tax and additional tax will lead to the increase of industry vulnerability, the increase of financial cost will strengthen the vulnerability of industry, and the fluctuation of financial cost will impact the vulnerability of general industry more than that of financial dependent industry. An increase in the number of workers in enterprises will lead to an increase in industrial vulnerability.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832;F121.3

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