城镇居民消费影响因素及区域间差异分析

发布时间：2018-07-12 10:39

本文选题：消费 + 区域差异　；参考：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：根据国家统计局数据,2012年我国国内生产总值(GDP)增长7.8%,其中,消费对GDP增长贡献51.8%15]。消费作为国民经济“三驾马车”之一,对国民经济增长有着重要影响。本文应用了一系列经典消费函数模型对城镇居民消费影响因素进行了分析,并对我国区域间城镇居民消费差异进行了研究。首先,应用经典消费函数模型,对1990-2011年我国城镇居民消费的影响因素进行了分析。对不同消费函数间的差异进行了比较,发现收入依然是影响的消费的主要因素。引入利率和收入不确定性对消费的影响,分析消费和收入在时间序列上的异变情况,发现在2000年和2004年这两个时间点上存在异变,解释异变的原因。其次,在前面分析消费影响因素的基础上,通过聚类分析来比较我国区域间城镇居民消费差异,对比地区间消费差异变化。由于政治、经济、文化的不同,我国城镇居民消费呈现出了由经济发达的东部到经济欠发达的西部的地域性变化,经济发展程度相近的地区表现出了较高的消费相似性。最后,应用平行数据模型再次对我国区域间城镇居民消费差异进行分析。分析发现自发性消费最高的前三个地区是浙江、江苏、北京；最低的是新疆、黑龙江、内蒙古；边际消费倾向较高的是新疆、广东和江苏,全国城镇居民平均边际消费倾向是0.64。综合模型得出的结论给出增加居民消费,促进经济发展的建议。
[Abstract]:According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8% in 2012, of which consumption contributed 51.8% to GDP growth. Consumption, as one of the "troika" of the national economy, has an important impact on the growth of the national economy. In this paper, a series of classical consumption function models are used to analyze the influencing factors of urban residents' consumption, and the differences of urban residents' consumption among different regions in China are studied. Firstly, using the classical consumption function model, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban residents' consumption in China from 1990 to 2011. The differences between different consumption functions are compared and it is found that income is still the main factor affecting consumption. By introducing the influence of interest rate and income uncertainty on consumption, this paper analyzes the variation of consumption and income in time series, and finds that there are different changes in 2000 and 2004, which explain the reasons for these changes. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of consumption, the paper compares the differences of urban residents' consumption among regions and the changes of consumption differences between regions by cluster analysis. Due to the differences of politics, economy and culture, the consumption of urban residents in our country has shown a regional change from the economically developed east to the economically underdeveloped west, and the areas with similar economic development level have shown a high consumption similarity. Finally, the parallel data model is used to analyze the difference of urban residents' consumption. It is found that the top three regions with the highest spontaneous consumption are Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Beijing; the lowest are Xinjiang, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia; the higher marginal consumption tendency is Xinjiang, Guangdong and Jiangsu; the average marginal consumption tendency of urban residents in China is 0.64. The conclusion of the comprehensive model gives the suggestion of increasing residents' consumption and promoting economic development.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F224

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