四川省金融资源配置与经济增长影响的实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-07 12:35
【摘要】：金融与经济的关系自古以来都是经济学术界研究的重点问题之一,世界各国的经济金融学者从不同角度不同层面对这一问题进行过深入剖析。随着当代经济金融化进程的加深,金融成为了经济增长发展中一大不可忽略的因素,其资源属性也得到逐步显现,1998年辽宁大学的白钦先教授第一次在中国公开提出了金融资源这一概念,为金融经济关系的研究打开了另一个思路,人们开始改变以往把金融作为一种简单工具的思路,以更全面的观念为起点,站在资源配置的角度,综合考察各项金融资源要素对经济增长是否发挥作用以及作用的路径、效果等问题,而对这一问题的研究结果则随着研究时间和地域的不同有着较大的差别,表明金融资源和经济增长问题具有较强的地域性特点,受此启发,本文将此问题的研究范围限定于西部最重要的省份——四川省,围绕着四川省经济增长与金融资源配置情况,利用实证的方法考察了二者之间是否具有长期均衡关系以及是谁作用于谁的问题,以期找到优化金融资源配置的方法,更好地促进四川经济的增长。 此外,本选题也紧贴中国金融工作重点,具有一定现实意义。2012年1月6日-7日,五年一届的全国金融工作会议在北京举行,温家宝总理在对未来金融工作重点进行部署时,首先就提出了金融服务实体经济的基本要求,这一要求看似是对2008年那场由于金融创新工具过度虚拟化、脱离其所依赖的基础资产和当局监管而引发的金融危机教训的总结,但实质上是反映了金融为经济而生、故需要为经济社会发展提供更多优质服务的本质属性：另外银监会主席尚福林也表示,银行业金融机构在今后五年的一个重要工作即为优化信贷结构,确保信贷资金有序流入实体经济,同时促进经济结构的调整；因此本次会议可以说是将金融经济关系研究问题再一次推上了台面,同时也印证了本文研究问题的必要性和及时性。 本文以金融资源理论为研究起点,在对金融资源及其内涵进行界定的基础上,通过引入西方传统金融经济理论和经济增长理论,将金融资源及其配置与经济增长结合起来,探讨金融资源配置影响经济增长的路径,设计出金融资源配置水平的评价指标体系,紧接着以该指标体系为依据考察四川省金融资源配置的实际状况,找到不足之处,同时也利用各金融资源配置指标与经济增长指标进行实证分析,研究四川省金融资源与经济增长之间所存在的不协调的部分,最后根据这些不足和不协调提出优化建议,按此框架,本文主要划分了六章内容来进行研究： 第一章,导论部分,主要提出本文的研究背景与意义,同时对国内外金融资源问题及金融资源配置与经济增长关系问题的研究进行了综述,找到研究空白点及不足,并据此提出了本文的思路和框架,最后也对本文主要使用的研究方法及创新点和不足进行了简要说明； 第二章,理论部分,本部分以白钦先教授提出的“以金融资源学说为基础的金融可持续发展理论”为切入点,提出了金融资源的概念并分析了金融资源各组成层次的内涵,指出了金融资源的特殊属性,同时改编运用微观经济学中的生产可能曲线理论,来解释了金融资源优化配置的过程动因及评价要求,通过金融资源配置要与经济发展增长相适应的评价要求来引出之后对西方金融发展与经济增长几大理论的回顾,主要包括了帕特里克1966年提出的“需求追随”和“供给引导”理论、戈德史密斯1968年提出的“金融结构”理论、肖与麦金农1973年提出的“金融抑制”和“金融深化”理论以及赫尔曼与斯蒂格利茨1996年提出的“金融约束”理论,各大理论分别强调了金融对经济影响所使用的路径,为了使这一路径更加清晰系统,本文进一步引入了内生增长理论中的AK模型,并创造性地在其中加入金融因素——储蓄投资转化率φ,得出了金融资源配置影响经济增长的三大路径,最后根据这三大路径,设计了一套包括金融资源总量指标、信贷资源指标、储蓄转投资指标(从间接融资和直接融资两大角度)、投资效率指标、金融开放度指标等在内的金融资源配置衡量指标体系； 第三章,发展回顾及现状描述部分,本部分选取了四川省1997-2012年的经济增长数据和1997-2011年的金融数据,对四川省经济增长和金融资源配置的发展历史进行了回顾,也对其现状进行了描述,并从回望历史和分析现状的过程中发现四川在金融资源配置方面所存在的问题,为之后建议的提出奠定基础： 第四章,实证部分,本部分选取了1990-2011年期间四川省GDP增长率数据与金融深化指标(金融机构存贷款总量/GDP)、信贷资源配置指标(金融机构贷款额/金融机构存款额)、金融市场发展指标(股票筹资额与保费收入之和/GDP)和金融开放度指标(实际利用外资额/GDP)四大金融资源配置指标数据,利用约翰森(Johansen)协整检验法和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法,对四川省金融资源配置与经济增长之间是否存在长期均衡关系及二者的格兰杰因果关系进行了实证检验,以进一步确认四川省哪些金融资源因素对经济增长产生作用及其作用方向等问题; 第五章和第六章分别为建议部分和结语部分,这两部分主要是在前面理论分析和实证分析的基础之上,提出的优化金融资源配置以更好促进经济增长的建议,实现本文最终的研究目的。 按照上述的分析框架,本文主要得到了以下几点结论： 1、金融资源是一个极为宽泛的概念,包括了基础的广义货币资本、中层的金融组织工具体系和整体各部分的互动效应；金融资源的“权力资源”特殊属性使其成为了经济增长的关键影响因素,金融资源的优化配置不仅意味着金融资源“量”的增加,更包括了“质”的改善：金融资源配置主要通过影响储蓄率s、储蓄投资转化比例φ和资本边际产出A三大因素来影响经济增长; 2、自1997年重庆分离以来,四川省在经济增长和金融资源增加及其合理配置方面取得了巨大成就,但与全国平均水平相比,仍然可以发现一些问题的存在：金融资源总量上信贷资源占比过大、稳定城乡居民存款不断流失、信贷资源利用不够充分,存在“惜贷”现象、股票市场发展滞后,总量欠缺,分布不均、保险市场深度有余,密度不足、实际利用外资稳定性有待加强等；造成这些问题的原因既有宏观制度层面的“金融抑制”,也有中观及微观金融机构自身体制及发展的缺陷; 3、对经济增长指标与金融资源配置指标的协整检验结果显示：四川省经济增长与金融资源配置之间存在着长期的协整关系,可以将二者联系起来,考察其互动机制；进一步的格兰杰因果检验显示,四川省经济增长与金融资源之间的关系属于“供给引导”型,即金融资源总量的扩张和配置效率的提高是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而反之则不成立；由此进一步分析协整关系式,发现目前四川金融资源量的增长及实际利用外资额的增加对经济增长起到正向的推动作用,而信贷资源的配置情况和直接金融市场的发展情况却成为了经济增长的“绊脚石”； 4、根据现状分析及实证分析结果,秉着加强对经济增长起积极作用部分、改革起消极作用部分的原则,本文提出了四大优化四川省金融资源配置的建议：在金融资源总量方面,通过加快各类金融机构的设立与发展、鼓励产品的创新以及扩大金融资源来源来完成保持和扩张；在信贷资源配置方面,通过宏观层面降低干预、中观层面体制改革及微观层面创新服务和技术来提高效率；在直接金融市场方面,通过扩容上市公司“潜在库”、推动证券公司扩展业务范围和服务深度、加强融资资金使用监管、加大保险宣传力度及在农村层面影响力来推动发展；在金融开放度方面,通过加大外资引进力度、强调外资“技术溢出效应”(特别是在对国内金融机构方面)来深化效果,达到促进经济增长目的。 总之,四川省金融资源配置对经济增长促进作用的发挥是一个长期的过程,本文通过对金融资源的界定,创造性地在传统经济增长模型中加入了金融因素,分析了金融资源对经济增长的影响路径,同时在指标界定无异议且可得的前提下,尽最大可能从全面综合的角度来考察了四川省金融资源配置对经济增长作用的现状,并由此提出了合理可行的优化配置意见,希望能籍此达到促进经济更快更好增长的目的。
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, the relationship between finance and economy has been one of the key issues in the economic academic circles. Economic and financial scholars all over the world have made a thorough analysis of this issue from different angles and levels. With the deepening of the process of economic financialization, finance has become a major factor that can not be ignored in economic growth and development, and its resources. In 1998, Professor Bai Qinxian of Liaoning University publicly put forward the concept of financial resources in China for the first time, which opened up another way of thinking for the study of financial and economic relations. People began to change their thinking of using finance as a simple tool and to stand on the basis of a more comprehensive concept of resource allocation. From the angle of view, this paper comprehensively inspects whether various financial resources play an important role in economic growth, the path and effect of these factors. However, the results of this study vary greatly with the time and region of the study, indicating that the financial resources and economic growth problems have strong regional characteristics. The research scope of this problem is limited to Sichuan Province, the most important province in Western China. Focusing on the economic growth and financial resources allocation in Sichuan Province, this paper uses empirical methods to examine whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two provinces and who acts on them, so as to find a way to optimize the allocation of financial resources and promote it better. Enter Sichuan's economic growth.
Premier Wen Jiabao first put forward the basic requirements of financial services for the real economy when he deployed the focus of financial work in the future. This requirement seems to be for 2008. The lessons learned from the financial crisis caused by the over-virtualization of financial innovative instruments and their separation from the underlying assets on which they depend and from the supervision of the authorities in 1997 are essentially a reflection of the essential nature of financial survival for the economy and therefore the need to provide more quality services for economic and social development. In the next five years, an important task of the industry financial institutions is to optimize the credit structure, ensure the orderly flow of credit funds into the real economy, and promote the adjustment of the economic structure; therefore, this conference can be said to put the issue of financial and economic relations on the table once again, but also confirms the necessity of this study. Timeliness.
Based on the theory of financial resources and the definition of financial resources and their connotations, this paper combines financial resources and their allocation with economic growth by introducing the traditional western financial and economic theories, discusses the path of financial resources allocation affecting economic growth, and designs the allocation water of financial resources. The flat evaluation index system is followed by an investigation of the actual situation of the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province on the basis of the index system to find out the shortcomings. At the same time, it also uses the indicators of financial resources allocation and economic growth to make an empirical analysis to study the uncoordinated part between the financial resources and economic growth in Sichuan Province. According to these deficiencies and inconsistencies, optimization suggestions are put forward. According to this framework, this paper mainly divides into six chapters to study:
The first chapter, the introduction part, mainly puts forward the research background and significance of this paper, at the same time, summarizes the domestic and foreign financial resources problems and the relationship between financial resources allocation and economic growth, finds the research gaps and deficiencies, and puts forward the ideas and framework of this paper, and finally the research methods and methods used in this paper. Innovations and shortcomings are briefly described.
The second chapter, the theory part, this part takes Professor Bai Qinxian's "financial sustainable development theory based on the theory of financial resources" as the breakthrough point, puts forward the concept of financial resources, analyzes the connotation of the various levels of financial resources, points out the special attributes of financial resources, and adapts the production in microeconomics. Possibility Curve Theory explains the process motivation and evaluation requirements of the optimal allocation of financial resources. The review of several major theories of financial development and economic growth in the West, including "demand following" and "demand following" put forward by Patrick in 1966, is drawn from the evaluation requirements of the allocation of financial resources to be compatible with economic growth. Supply-led theory, Goldsmith's theory of "financial structure" in 1968, Shaw and McKinnon's theory of "financial restraint" and "financial deepening" in 1973, and Helman and Stiglitz's theory of "financial restraint" in 1996, emphasize the path of financial impact on the economy. In order to make this path more clear and systematic, this paper further introduces the AK model in the endogenous growth theory, and creatively adds the financial factor - savings and investment conversion rate to it, and obtains three major paths of financial resources allocation affecting economic growth. Finally, according to these three paths, a set of indexes including total financial resources is designed. Benchmark, credit resources index, savings to investment index (from the two angles of indirect financing and direct financing), investment efficiency index, financial openness index and other financial resources allocation measurement index system;
In the third chapter, the development review and the current situation description part, this part selects the economic growth data of Sichuan Province from 1997 to 2012 and the financial data from 1997 to 2011, reviews the development history of economic growth and the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province, describes its current situation, and finds Sichuan from the process of looking back on the history and analyzing the current situation. The problems in the allocation of financial resources lay the foundation for the following recommendations:
In the fourth chapter, the empirical part, this part selects the GDP growth rate data and financial deepening indicators (total deposit and loan amount / GDP of financial institutions), credit resource allocation indicators (loan amount / deposit amount of financial institutions), financial market development indicators (the sum of stock financing and premium income / GDP) and financial openness. Using Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test, this paper empirically tests whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the allocation of financial resources and economic growth in Sichuan Province and Granger causality between the two indicators. Which financial resources factors of Sichuan province play an important role in economic growth and its direction of action?
The fifth and sixth chapters are the suggestions and the conclusion respectively. These two parts are mainly based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and put forward the suggestions of optimizing the allocation of financial resources to better promote economic growth.
According to the above analysis framework, the following conclusions are obtained.
1. Financial resources are a very broad concept, including the basic broad money capital, the middle-level financial organization tool system and the interaction effect of the whole; the special attribute of financial resources makes it a key factor in economic growth, and the optimal allocation of financial resources not only means financial resources. The increase of "quantity" includes the improvement of "quality". Financial resource allocation mainly influences economic growth through three factors: savings rate s, savings investment conversion ratio and capital marginal output A.
2. Since the separation of Chongqing in 1997, Sichuan Province has made tremendous achievements in economic growth, the increase of financial resources and their rational allocation. However, compared with the national average, there are still some problems: the excessive proportion of credit resources in the total amount of financial resources, the steady loss of deposits between urban and rural residents, and the inadequate use of credit resources. Sufficiently, there are phenomena of "loan-avoidance". The stock market is lagging behind, the total amount is lacking, the distribution is uneven, the insurance market is deep enough, the density is insufficient, and the stability of the actual utilization of foreign capital needs to be strengthened. Defects;
3. The co-integration test results of economic growth index and financial resources allocation index show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between economic growth and financial resources allocation in Sichuan Province, which can be linked to investigate their interaction mechanism; further Granger causality test shows that the relationship between economic growth and financial resources in Sichuan Province. It is found that the growth of Sichuan's financial resources and the increase of the actual utilization of foreign capital play a positive role in promoting economic growth. However, the allocation of credit resources and the development of direct financial markets have become "stumbling blocks" to economic growth.
4. Based on the analysis of the present situation and the results of the empirical analysis, and in accordance with the principle of strengthening the active part of economic growth and the negative part of reform, this paper puts forward four suggestions for optimizing the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province: in terms of the total amount of financial resources, by accelerating the establishment and development of various financial institutions, encouraging product innovation and so on. Expanding the sources of financial resources to complete the maintenance and expansion; in the allocation of credit resources, through reducing macro-level intervention, meso-level system reform and micro-level innovation of services and technology to improve efficiency; in the direct financial market, through expanding the "potential pool" of listed companies, promoting securities companies to expand business scope and kimono In the aspect of financial openness, we should deepen the effect of foreign capital "technology spillover effect" (especially for domestic financial institutions) and promote economic growth.
In a word, it is a long-term process for the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province to play a role in promoting economic growth. By defining the financial resources, this paper creatively adds financial factors to the traditional economic growth model, analyzes the path of financial resources'impact on economic growth, and at the same time, on the premise of no objection to the definition of indicators and availability. From a comprehensive point of view, this paper investigates the present situation of the effect of financial resources allocation on economic growth in Sichuan Province, and puts forward reasonable and feasible suggestions for optimizing the allocation, hoping to achieve the purpose of promoting faster and better economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.7
本文编号：2228286
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, the relationship between finance and economy has been one of the key issues in the economic academic circles. Economic and financial scholars all over the world have made a thorough analysis of this issue from different angles and levels. With the deepening of the process of economic financialization, finance has become a major factor that can not be ignored in economic growth and development, and its resources. In 1998, Professor Bai Qinxian of Liaoning University publicly put forward the concept of financial resources in China for the first time, which opened up another way of thinking for the study of financial and economic relations. People began to change their thinking of using finance as a simple tool and to stand on the basis of a more comprehensive concept of resource allocation. From the angle of view, this paper comprehensively inspects whether various financial resources play an important role in economic growth, the path and effect of these factors. However, the results of this study vary greatly with the time and region of the study, indicating that the financial resources and economic growth problems have strong regional characteristics. The research scope of this problem is limited to Sichuan Province, the most important province in Western China. Focusing on the economic growth and financial resources allocation in Sichuan Province, this paper uses empirical methods to examine whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two provinces and who acts on them, so as to find a way to optimize the allocation of financial resources and promote it better. Enter Sichuan's economic growth.
Premier Wen Jiabao first put forward the basic requirements of financial services for the real economy when he deployed the focus of financial work in the future. This requirement seems to be for 2008. The lessons learned from the financial crisis caused by the over-virtualization of financial innovative instruments and their separation from the underlying assets on which they depend and from the supervision of the authorities in 1997 are essentially a reflection of the essential nature of financial survival for the economy and therefore the need to provide more quality services for economic and social development. In the next five years, an important task of the industry financial institutions is to optimize the credit structure, ensure the orderly flow of credit funds into the real economy, and promote the adjustment of the economic structure; therefore, this conference can be said to put the issue of financial and economic relations on the table once again, but also confirms the necessity of this study. Timeliness.
Based on the theory of financial resources and the definition of financial resources and their connotations, this paper combines financial resources and their allocation with economic growth by introducing the traditional western financial and economic theories, discusses the path of financial resources allocation affecting economic growth, and designs the allocation water of financial resources. The flat evaluation index system is followed by an investigation of the actual situation of the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province on the basis of the index system to find out the shortcomings. At the same time, it also uses the indicators of financial resources allocation and economic growth to make an empirical analysis to study the uncoordinated part between the financial resources and economic growth in Sichuan Province. According to these deficiencies and inconsistencies, optimization suggestions are put forward. According to this framework, this paper mainly divides into six chapters to study:
The first chapter, the introduction part, mainly puts forward the research background and significance of this paper, at the same time, summarizes the domestic and foreign financial resources problems and the relationship between financial resources allocation and economic growth, finds the research gaps and deficiencies, and puts forward the ideas and framework of this paper, and finally the research methods and methods used in this paper. Innovations and shortcomings are briefly described.
The second chapter, the theory part, this part takes Professor Bai Qinxian's "financial sustainable development theory based on the theory of financial resources" as the breakthrough point, puts forward the concept of financial resources, analyzes the connotation of the various levels of financial resources, points out the special attributes of financial resources, and adapts the production in microeconomics. Possibility Curve Theory explains the process motivation and evaluation requirements of the optimal allocation of financial resources. The review of several major theories of financial development and economic growth in the West, including "demand following" and "demand following" put forward by Patrick in 1966, is drawn from the evaluation requirements of the allocation of financial resources to be compatible with economic growth. Supply-led theory, Goldsmith's theory of "financial structure" in 1968, Shaw and McKinnon's theory of "financial restraint" and "financial deepening" in 1973, and Helman and Stiglitz's theory of "financial restraint" in 1996, emphasize the path of financial impact on the economy. In order to make this path more clear and systematic, this paper further introduces the AK model in the endogenous growth theory, and creatively adds the financial factor - savings and investment conversion rate to it, and obtains three major paths of financial resources allocation affecting economic growth. Finally, according to these three paths, a set of indexes including total financial resources is designed. Benchmark, credit resources index, savings to investment index (from the two angles of indirect financing and direct financing), investment efficiency index, financial openness index and other financial resources allocation measurement index system;
In the third chapter, the development review and the current situation description part, this part selects the economic growth data of Sichuan Province from 1997 to 2012 and the financial data from 1997 to 2011, reviews the development history of economic growth and the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province, describes its current situation, and finds Sichuan from the process of looking back on the history and analyzing the current situation. The problems in the allocation of financial resources lay the foundation for the following recommendations:
In the fourth chapter, the empirical part, this part selects the GDP growth rate data and financial deepening indicators (total deposit and loan amount / GDP of financial institutions), credit resource allocation indicators (loan amount / deposit amount of financial institutions), financial market development indicators (the sum of stock financing and premium income / GDP) and financial openness. Using Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test, this paper empirically tests whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the allocation of financial resources and economic growth in Sichuan Province and Granger causality between the two indicators. Which financial resources factors of Sichuan province play an important role in economic growth and its direction of action?
The fifth and sixth chapters are the suggestions and the conclusion respectively. These two parts are mainly based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and put forward the suggestions of optimizing the allocation of financial resources to better promote economic growth.
According to the above analysis framework, the following conclusions are obtained.
1. Financial resources are a very broad concept, including the basic broad money capital, the middle-level financial organization tool system and the interaction effect of the whole; the special attribute of financial resources makes it a key factor in economic growth, and the optimal allocation of financial resources not only means financial resources. The increase of "quantity" includes the improvement of "quality". Financial resource allocation mainly influences economic growth through three factors: savings rate s, savings investment conversion ratio and capital marginal output A.
2. Since the separation of Chongqing in 1997, Sichuan Province has made tremendous achievements in economic growth, the increase of financial resources and their rational allocation. However, compared with the national average, there are still some problems: the excessive proportion of credit resources in the total amount of financial resources, the steady loss of deposits between urban and rural residents, and the inadequate use of credit resources. Sufficiently, there are phenomena of "loan-avoidance". The stock market is lagging behind, the total amount is lacking, the distribution is uneven, the insurance market is deep enough, the density is insufficient, and the stability of the actual utilization of foreign capital needs to be strengthened. Defects;
3. The co-integration test results of economic growth index and financial resources allocation index show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between economic growth and financial resources allocation in Sichuan Province, which can be linked to investigate their interaction mechanism; further Granger causality test shows that the relationship between economic growth and financial resources in Sichuan Province. It is found that the growth of Sichuan's financial resources and the increase of the actual utilization of foreign capital play a positive role in promoting economic growth. However, the allocation of credit resources and the development of direct financial markets have become "stumbling blocks" to economic growth.
4. Based on the analysis of the present situation and the results of the empirical analysis, and in accordance with the principle of strengthening the active part of economic growth and the negative part of reform, this paper puts forward four suggestions for optimizing the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province: in terms of the total amount of financial resources, by accelerating the establishment and development of various financial institutions, encouraging product innovation and so on. Expanding the sources of financial resources to complete the maintenance and expansion; in the allocation of credit resources, through reducing macro-level intervention, meso-level system reform and micro-level innovation of services and technology to improve efficiency; in the direct financial market, through expanding the "potential pool" of listed companies, promoting securities companies to expand business scope and kimono In the aspect of financial openness, we should deepen the effect of foreign capital "technology spillover effect" (especially for domestic financial institutions) and promote economic growth.
In a word, it is a long-term process for the allocation of financial resources in Sichuan Province to play a role in promoting economic growth. By defining the financial resources, this paper creatively adds financial factors to the traditional economic growth model, analyzes the path of financial resources'impact on economic growth, and at the same time, on the premise of no objection to the definition of indicators and availability. From a comprehensive point of view, this paper investigates the present situation of the effect of financial resources allocation on economic growth in Sichuan Province, and puts forward reasonable and feasible suggestions for optimizing the allocation, hoping to achieve the purpose of promoting faster and better economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.7
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