中国和欧盟低碳发展比较研究
发布时间：2018-10-05 06:27
【摘要】：气候变化问题已成为人类社会面临的严峻考验之一。这场考验不仅威胁人类的生存和发展,还使得人类面临着来自能源安全性方面的挑战,此外,2009年的全球金融危机促使世界各国寻求新的经济增长点。发展低碳经济作为应对气候变化、协调社会经济发展、保障能源安全与应对气候变化的基本途径,已经逐渐取得世界上越来越多国家的认同。为了应对全球气候变化和确保能源安全,确保在新一轮的国际新秩序建立过程中抢占有利地位,很多发达国家都转变了发展思路,寻求向低碳发展模式转变。 本文从历史演进的角度,以二氧化碳排放强度、人均二氧化碳排放量、二氧化碳排放总量三个指标为切入点,对碳排放历史演进阶段及各阶段的主导性驱动因素进行分析,并在此基础上对中欧当前所处的低碳发展阶段进行判定；接下来又基于脱钩理论对中国和欧盟国家近期经济发展与碳排放脱钩程度进行比较研究,结果如下： (1)欧盟15国基本上跨越了碳排放强度的倒U型曲线高峰,但是各国碳排放强度高峰出现时的经济发展水平差异很大,各国碳排放强度峰值也存在较大差异。中国的碳排放强度呈现出比较明显的双峰曲线特征,分别于上世纪60年代初、70年代中后期出现碳排放强度峰值,中国碳排放强度在上世纪80年代和90年出现持续下降趋势,但是在21世纪初又出现了反弹,这说明中国尚未完全实现碳排放强度的稳定下降。 (2)一些发达国家如德国、比利时、丹麦、法国、爱尔兰、瑞典、荷兰、英国和美国等基本上跨越了人均碳排放量的高峰,芬兰、希腊、意大利、葡萄牙等国的人均碳排放量发展趋势仍需继续观察,他们目前可能或者正在跨越人均二氧化碳排放量高峰。虽然中国已经实现了碳排放强度高峰的跨越,但是其碳强度下降趋势还不稳定,中国还需要很长的时间才能达到人均碳排放量峰值。 (3)仅有7个欧盟国家(比利时、丹麦、法国、德国、荷兰、瑞典、英国等)跨越了碳排放总量高峰。 (4)通过观察近半个世纪中国、欧盟15国、美国、日本、印度和巴西的碳排放和经济发展的关系可以发现：大部分发达国家都出现过强脱钩,且发达国家脱钩弹性值的变化趋势基本一致；但是3个发展中国家经济增长与碳排放脱钩特征的变化趋势差异较大。发展阶段不同将会对中欧低碳国际定位、低碳战略目标的制定和低碳政策的取向产生不同的影响。 在对中欧低碳发展阶段比较研究的基础上,研究中欧追求的低碳发展国际定位。在低碳发展国际领导力方面,欧盟具有低碳发展的先发优势,而且其还通过一系列举措强化这些优势,尽管近年来随着经济的低迷欧盟低碳发展领导力出现下降,但这并未动摇其领导者地位；目前中国在国际低碳发展领域仍处于追随者的地位,中国已成为世界上最大的温室气体排放国,在领导力方面与欧盟存在很大差距,但是中国仍存在实现低碳发展领导力的潜力和可能性。 国内低碳政策的有效实施是欧盟实现低碳发展国际领导力的重要基础。本文从低碳政策历史演进、低碳发展战略目标与实施路径规划、低碳发展政策实施现状3个方面对中欧低碳发展政策进行比较研究,其中低碳发展政策实施现状比较研究主要从中欧追求低碳发展的财税政策、面向企业的节能政策以及能效政策3个维度展开。研究结论如下： (1)欧盟应对气候变化、追求低碳发展的政策演进历程也是其政策一体化逐步深化的过程,大致经历了萌芽(20世纪80年代中后期)、发展(20世纪90年代)和基本成熟(2000年以后)三个阶段；相对而言,中国应对气候变化、低碳发展政策的发展速度比较慢,20世纪80年代至2005年是中国应对气候变化、追求低碳发展政策的萌芽阶段,迄今为止中国的低碳发展政策尚处于发展阶段。 (2)中国进行节能减排控制对象和欧盟温室气体减排控制对象非常相似,都是以重点耗能企业作为控制对象,且两者都是以循序渐进的手段逐步扩大控制对象的范围,但是两者具有不同的政策工具选择偏好：欧盟低碳发展政策的主要特点是以市场机制为基础；而中国当前的低碳政策是以政府管制为主,市场机制为辅。 发展阶段不同、政策环境不同,造成中欧低碳发展目标选择的不同。中国在选择低碳发展政策工具时应认真考虑自身当期的经济发展状况、政策环境状况、碳排放发展的阶段特征以及低碳发展目标。基于以上对中国和欧盟低碳发展的定性和定量比较研究,本文提出中国深化低碳发展建议如下： (1)通过加强国际合作等方式提升中国应对气候变化国际影响力,在全球低碳发展新秩序构建中占据有利地位,为追求气候变化国际领导力奠定基础； (2)中国应为应对气候变化、实现低碳发展制定中长期目标并对实现目标的的路线图进行规划； (3)继续使用以管制-命令和制定标准为代表的传统政策工具； (4)推进基于市场的政策工具：积极探索低碳税收政策；循序渐进的推进碳排放交易市场建设。
[Abstract]:Climate change has become one of the severe tests for human society. The test not only threatens human survival and development, but also faces challenges from energy security. In addition, the 2009 global financial crisis has prompted the world's countries to seek new economic growth points. The development of low-carbon economy as the basic way to deal with climate change, coordinate socio-economic development, safeguard energy security and respond to climate change has gradually gained the recognition of more and more countries in the world. In order to address global climate change and to ensure energy security, to ensure a favourable position in the new round of international new order creation, many developed countries have shifted their development ideas and sought to shift towards a low-carbon development paradigm. From the perspective of historical evolution, this paper takes three indexes of carbon dioxide emission intensity, per capita carbon dioxide emission and carbon dioxide emission as the entry point, and carries out the main driving factors of carbon emission history evolution stage and each stage. Based on the analysis, the paper makes a decision on the low carbon development stage at present in China and Europe, and then compares the recent economic development and carbon emission decoupling degree between China and EU countries based on the decoupling theory. The following conclusions are as follows: (1) The EU 15 countries have basically crossed the peak of the inverted U-shaped curve of carbon emission intensity, but the economic development level at the peak of carbon emission intensity in each country is very different, and the peak of carbon emission intensity in each country is also saved. In the middle and late 1970s, the carbon emission intensity peaked in the middle and late 1970s, and the intensity of carbon emission in China continued to decline in the 1980s and 1990s, but in the beginning of the 21st century, China's carbon emission intensity showed a continuous decline in carbon emission intensity. A rebound has shown that China has not yet fully achieved its carbon emission intensity The steady decline in carbon emissions in some developed countries, such as Germany, Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States, has substantially spanned the per capita carbon emissions per capita in countries such as Germany, Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States The trend continues to be observed, and they may or are currently crossing per capita. Carbon dioxide emissions peak. Although China has achieved a peak in carbon emission intensity, its carbon intensity decline is still unstable, and China needs a long time to reach Carbon emissions per capita. (3) Only 7 EU countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, UK, etc.) (4) The relationship between carbon emission and economic development in 15 countries, the United States, Japan, India and Brazil can be found by observing the relationship between carbon emission and economic development in China, EU 15 countries, the United States, Japan, India and Brazil in recent half century. The trend of decoupling elastic values is basically consistent; however, economic growth and carbon emission in 3 developing countries The variation trend of the release decoupling characteristics is large. The development stage will be different for the development of the low-carbon international positioning and low-carbon strategic target in China and Europe. The orientation of low carbon policy produces different effects. The basis of comparative study on the phase of low carbon development in central Europe On the basis of the international leadership of low-carbon development, the EU has the first advantage of low carbon development, and it has strengthened these advantages through a series of initiatives, although in recent years, with the economic downturn, the EU's low-carbon development leadership However, China is still in its position in the field of international low-carbon development, and China has become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with a wide gap in leadership with the European Union, but China remains Potential and potential for low-carbon development leadership. Effective consolidation of domestic low-carbon policies Shi is an important basis for the EU to realize the international leadership of low carbon development. This paper is based on the low carbon policy historical evolution, the strategic target of low carbon development and the implementation path planning, and the implementation of low carbon development policy. A comparative study of China-EU low-carbon development policy is carried out in three aspects: the comparative study on the implementation of low-carbon development policy is mainly from the tax policy and face of the pursuit of low-carbon development in Central Europe Energy-saving administration of enterprises The research conclusions are as follows: (1) The EU should deal with climate change and pursue the policy evolution of low carbon development. In the middle and late 1980s, the development (1990s) and the basic maturity (beyond 2000) were three stages; in contrast, China was relatively slow to cope with climate change, low carbon development policies, and the 1980s to 2005. It's China's germination of climate change and pursuing low-carbon development policies So far, China's low-carbon development policy is still at the stage of development. (2) China's energy-saving and emission-reduction control targets and EU greenhouse gas emission reduction control targets are very similar, all of which are focused on energy-consuming enterprises as control pairs. Like, and both are step-by-step means to gradually expand the scope of the control object, both have different policy tool selection preferences: the main characteristic of the EU low carbon development policy is based on the market mechanism China's current low-carbon policy is dominated by government and the market mechanism is supplemented. The development phase is different, the policy environment is different, resulting in the choice of China-EU low-carbon development goal. China should carefully consider itself as the economic development of the period when choosing the low-carbon development policy tool The status of exhibition, the status of policy environment, the stage characteristics of carbon emission development and the goal of low carbon development. Based on the above, the low carbon in China and the EU The qualitative and quantitative comparative study of the development of China suggests that China's proposal to deepen the low-carbon development is as follows: (1) Enhancing China's international influence on climate change by strengthening international cooperation and other ways, with a low global level A favorable position in the construction of carbon development new order, laying the foundation for pursuing the international leadership of climate change; (2) China shall be Addressing climate change, achieving medium-and long-term goals for low-carbon development and achieving a goal-oriented approach Planning; (3) continuing to use traditional policy tools, represented by control-orders and development standards; (
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X321;F124.5
本文编号：2252357
[Abstract]:Climate change has become one of the severe tests for human society. The test not only threatens human survival and development, but also faces challenges from energy security. In addition, the 2009 global financial crisis has prompted the world's countries to seek new economic growth points. The development of low-carbon economy as the basic way to deal with climate change, coordinate socio-economic development, safeguard energy security and respond to climate change has gradually gained the recognition of more and more countries in the world. In order to address global climate change and to ensure energy security, to ensure a favourable position in the new round of international new order creation, many developed countries have shifted their development ideas and sought to shift towards a low-carbon development paradigm. From the perspective of historical evolution, this paper takes three indexes of carbon dioxide emission intensity, per capita carbon dioxide emission and carbon dioxide emission as the entry point, and carries out the main driving factors of carbon emission history evolution stage and each stage. Based on the analysis, the paper makes a decision on the low carbon development stage at present in China and Europe, and then compares the recent economic development and carbon emission decoupling degree between China and EU countries based on the decoupling theory. The following conclusions are as follows: (1) The EU 15 countries have basically crossed the peak of the inverted U-shaped curve of carbon emission intensity, but the economic development level at the peak of carbon emission intensity in each country is very different, and the peak of carbon emission intensity in each country is also saved. In the middle and late 1970s, the carbon emission intensity peaked in the middle and late 1970s, and the intensity of carbon emission in China continued to decline in the 1980s and 1990s, but in the beginning of the 21st century, China's carbon emission intensity showed a continuous decline in carbon emission intensity. A rebound has shown that China has not yet fully achieved its carbon emission intensity The steady decline in carbon emissions in some developed countries, such as Germany, Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States, has substantially spanned the per capita carbon emissions per capita in countries such as Germany, Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States The trend continues to be observed, and they may or are currently crossing per capita. Carbon dioxide emissions peak. Although China has achieved a peak in carbon emission intensity, its carbon intensity decline is still unstable, and China needs a long time to reach Carbon emissions per capita. (3) Only 7 EU countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, UK, etc.) (4) The relationship between carbon emission and economic development in 15 countries, the United States, Japan, India and Brazil can be found by observing the relationship between carbon emission and economic development in China, EU 15 countries, the United States, Japan, India and Brazil in recent half century. The trend of decoupling elastic values is basically consistent; however, economic growth and carbon emission in 3 developing countries The variation trend of the release decoupling characteristics is large. The development stage will be different for the development of the low-carbon international positioning and low-carbon strategic target in China and Europe. The orientation of low carbon policy produces different effects. The basis of comparative study on the phase of low carbon development in central Europe On the basis of the international leadership of low-carbon development, the EU has the first advantage of low carbon development, and it has strengthened these advantages through a series of initiatives, although in recent years, with the economic downturn, the EU's low-carbon development leadership However, China is still in its position in the field of international low-carbon development, and China has become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with a wide gap in leadership with the European Union, but China remains Potential and potential for low-carbon development leadership. Effective consolidation of domestic low-carbon policies Shi is an important basis for the EU to realize the international leadership of low carbon development. This paper is based on the low carbon policy historical evolution, the strategic target of low carbon development and the implementation path planning, and the implementation of low carbon development policy. A comparative study of China-EU low-carbon development policy is carried out in three aspects: the comparative study on the implementation of low-carbon development policy is mainly from the tax policy and face of the pursuit of low-carbon development in Central Europe Energy-saving administration of enterprises The research conclusions are as follows: (1) The EU should deal with climate change and pursue the policy evolution of low carbon development. In the middle and late 1980s, the development (1990s) and the basic maturity (beyond 2000) were three stages; in contrast, China was relatively slow to cope with climate change, low carbon development policies, and the 1980s to 2005. It's China's germination of climate change and pursuing low-carbon development policies So far, China's low-carbon development policy is still at the stage of development. (2) China's energy-saving and emission-reduction control targets and EU greenhouse gas emission reduction control targets are very similar, all of which are focused on energy-consuming enterprises as control pairs. Like, and both are step-by-step means to gradually expand the scope of the control object, both have different policy tool selection preferences: the main characteristic of the EU low carbon development policy is based on the market mechanism China's current low-carbon policy is dominated by government and the market mechanism is supplemented. The development phase is different, the policy environment is different, resulting in the choice of China-EU low-carbon development goal. China should carefully consider itself as the economic development of the period when choosing the low-carbon development policy tool The status of exhibition, the status of policy environment, the stage characteristics of carbon emission development and the goal of low carbon development. Based on the above, the low carbon in China and the EU The qualitative and quantitative comparative study of the development of China suggests that China's proposal to deepen the low-carbon development is as follows: (1) Enhancing China's international influence on climate change by strengthening international cooperation and other ways, with a low global level A favorable position in the construction of carbon development new order, laying the foundation for pursuing the international leadership of climate change; (2) China shall be Addressing climate change, achieving medium-and long-term goals for low-carbon development and achieving a goal-oriented approach Planning; (3) continuing to use traditional policy tools, represented by control-orders and development standards; (
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X321;F124.5
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