免费公交理论模型与系统仿真分析

发布时间：2018-03-11 15:22

本文选题：免费公交　切入点：偏好与效用　出处：《兰州交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着公交优先发展战略的进一步落实,政府财政收入的增加,城市轨道交通、快速公交(BRT)等大容量公共交通系统如雨后春笋般在国内一二线城市相继建成或开通,一些三四线城市也将其列入发展规划之中。然而并不是所有的城市都有能力或者适合发展大型公共交通,因此一些城市创新公交发展方式,推行公交免费的运营方式,即免费公交,以之来提升公交分担率,进而解决城市交通问题。然而这些城市实施的免费公交类型和效果不一,有的实施不到一周夭折,有的实施效果良好。目前,国内外关于免费公交方面的理论研究较少,尚缺乏具备理论深度的相应文献。本文的理论成果能为免费公交领域的深入研究提供参考,进而为城市公共交通的发展提供一种全新的模式,为解决城市交通问题提供一种新的思路和方法。同时,本文研究能使得免费公交的实施成为可能,对于为我国正在和将要实施免费公交的城市提供实践指导。本文首先对免费公交进行概述,详述国内外不同地区的免费公交定义、实施类型以及与常规公交方式的差异特征,并就免费公交的实施效益进行定量分析;其次,引进居民出行决策的偏好与效用理论以及RP和SP调查方法,对基于居民出行特性的免费公交选择意愿调查方案进行设计并实现,并采用非集计模型/集计处理与χ2统计检验的分析方法分析调查数据;第三,改进传统的交通四阶段模型,并通过算例分析,进一步研究免费公交实施对居民出行的影响机理。本文建立的理论模型有:基于免费公交实施的生成预测模型、基于效用最大化的分布预测模型、基于意愿选择的交通方式划分模型、基于公交客流竞争条件下的免费公交选择概率模型以及基于属性偏好的公交流量分配模型;第四,对免费公交实施的理论及其方法进行初步探讨,研究高峰型、平峰型、全日型和局部型这四类免费公交的线路和站点设置的关键技术,并通过选取案例城市,结合VISUM交通预测软件实证研究了高峰型免费公交在城市中的应用;最后,结合实施案例,采用VISSIM仿真软件对免费公交实施的路段交通系统进行微观仿真,仿真结果表明,免费公交的实施能较好改善路段交通系统的服务水平。论文的创新之处在于从不同属性群体的角度分析居民出行特征和乘坐免费公交的意愿,并以此作为基础,探讨免费公交的实施对居民出行的影响作用机理,研究免费公交实施理论及其关键技术,并就免费公交实施的交通系统进行微观仿真分析。
[Abstract]:With the further implementation of the development strategy of public transport priority, the increase of government revenue, mass transit systems such as urban rail transit, bus rapid transit (BRTT) and other mass transit systems have been built or opened one after another in the first and second tier cities in China. Some third-and fourth-tier cities have also included them in their development plans. However, not all cities have the ability or suitability to develop large-scale public transport. Therefore, some cities have innovated the way of public transport development and promoted the operation of public transport free of charge. That is, free public transport, in order to improve the public transport sharing rate, and then solve the urban traffic problem. However, the types and effects of free public transport implemented in these cities are different, some of which have been implemented for less than a week and some have achieved good results. At present, There are few theoretical studies on free public transport at home and abroad, and there is still a lack of relevant literature with theoretical depth. The theoretical results of this paper can provide a reference for further research in the field of free public transport. Then it provides a new mode for the development of urban public transport and a new way of thinking and method to solve the problem of urban traffic. At the same time, the research in this paper can make the implementation of free public transport possible. To provide practical guidance for the cities that are implementing and will implement free public transport in our country. Firstly, this paper gives an overview of free public transport, including the definition of free public transport, the types of implementation, and the characteristics of the difference between free public transport and conventional public transport in different regions at home and abroad. Secondly, introduce the preference and utility theory of residents' travel decision and RP and SP survey methods, and design and implement the free public transport choice will survey scheme based on residents' travel characteristics. The disaggregate model / set analysis and 蠂 2 statistical test are used to analyze the survey data. Thirdly, the traditional four-stage traffic model is improved, and an example is given. The theoretical models established in this paper are: the generation and prediction model based on free public transport implementation and the distribution prediction model based on utility maximization. Traffic mode partition model based on willingness choice, free bus choice probability model based on bus passenger flow competition and bus flow allocation model based on attribute preference; 4th, This paper discusses the theory and method of free public transportation, and studies the key technology of route and station setting of four kinds of free public transport, namely peak type, flat peak type, full day type and local type, and chooses the case city. Combined with VISUM traffic forecast software, the paper empirically studies the application of peak free public transport in cities. Finally, combining with the implementation case, using VISSIM simulation software to carry out microscopic simulation of the free public transport section traffic system, the simulation results show that, The implementation of free public transport can better improve the service level of road traffic system. The innovation of this paper lies in the analysis of residents' travel characteristics and their willingness to take free public transport from the perspective of different attribute groups, and take this as the basis. This paper probes into the mechanism of the effect of free public transport on residents' travel, studies the theory and key technology of free public transport, and makes a microscopic simulation analysis on the traffic system of free public transport.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

【共引文献】