基于NAIS的交通伤严重程度影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 03:05

本文选题：交通伤 + 影响因素　；参考：《清华大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断进步,我国汽车保有量不断增加。交通事故对车辆使用者的人身财产安全形成了巨大的威胁。世界各国均根据各自的道路交通特点制定并实施了旨在提升道路交通安全性的强制性道路交通管理法律法规,并在近200年的时间内得到不断的改进。为了了解中国道路交通伤影响因素对事故中人员伤亡的影响特点,本文对国家车辆事故深度调查系统数据库内1764名乘员交通伤严重程度、事故发生时的人员、车辆、道路和环境情况(共计32个相关变量)进行了数据统计。在分析以上相关变量数据有效性、集中性以及各个自变量之间相关性的基础上,筛选出乘员年龄、座椅位置、汽车质量等共计16个因素的符合研究的条件。本文使用多值Logistic回归模型,以乘员损伤严重度评分等级并作为为响应变量,以全部16个因素作为自变量进行回归分析。通过拟合优度、类确定平方系数等参数表明该拟合效果较好。通过对不同伤害等级交通伤的回归模型,分析出对各个交通伤害等级的重要因素与其水平。回归分析结果显示,在危重交通伤的影响因素中,较小的汽车质量起到非常显著的影响。因此本文针对我国高速公路上频发的轿车-货车追尾情况进行了进一步的仿真分析。本文根据回归分析中汽车质量统计数据,从美国国家车辆碰撞和分析中心数据库中选择了合适质量的轿车与货车模型并对模型的有效性进行了验证。随之采用正交分析法,分别分析了两车相对速度、碰撞重叠度、货车后侧防护装置材料强度和离地高度四个因素对影响轿车乘员舱侵入量和乘员头部、颈部、胸部、大腿力和小腿伤害的影响程度。研究结果表明,汽车事故特征对于各种等级的交通伤害均有较为明显的影响;交通伤严重程度越高,影响因素越多,预防措施相对的也就越加复杂。针对事故严重程度很高而且较为频繁的轿车—货车追尾事故,两车相对速度、碰撞重叠度、货车后侧防护装置材料强度和离地高度四个因素对碰撞波形存在着不同的影响,进而对人身体各个部位影响程度也各不相同。从总体上讲,车速和偏置度对乘员舱侵入量影响较大,两车相对车速、货车后侧防护装置材料以及高度对人体头部和颈部伤害影响较高。
[Abstract]:With the continuous progress of our economy, the number of cars in our country is increasing. Traffic accidents pose a great threat to the personal and property safety of vehicle users. According to the characteristics of road traffic, countries all over the world have formulated and implemented mandatory road traffic management laws and regulations aimed at improving road traffic safety, and have been continuously improved in the past 200 years. In order to understand the characteristics of the impact factors of road traffic injuries on casualties in accidents in China, this paper deals with the severity of traffic injuries of 1764 passengers in the database of the National vehicle accident depth Survey system, the personnel and vehicles at the time of the accident, Road and environmental conditions (a total of 32 related variables) were counted. On the basis of analyzing the data validity, centralization and correlation among the independent variables above, 16 factors, such as the age of the occupant, seat position and vehicle quality, were selected. In this paper, a multi-valued Logistic regression model is used to analyze the severity of injury of the occupants as a response variable and all 16 factors as independent variables. The result shows that the fitting effect is good. Based on the regression model of traffic injuries of different injury grades, the important factors and their levels of traffic injury grades are analyzed. The results of regression analysis showed that the small car quality played a significant role in the critical traffic injury. Therefore, this paper makes a further simulation analysis on the rear-end situation of the frequent passenger car and freight car on the freeway of our country. Based on the statistical data of automobile quality in regression analysis, this paper selects the model of car and freight car of suitable quality from the database of National Center for vehicle collision and Analysis, and verifies the validity of the model. Then the relative velocity, collision overlap, material strength and height from the ground of the rear side of the vehicle were analyzed by orthogonal analysis, respectively, which affect the invading quantity of the passenger cabin and the head, neck and chest of the passenger cabin. The impact of thigh strength and leg injury. The results show that the characteristics of automobile accidents have obvious effects on traffic injuries of various grades, and the higher the severity of traffic injuries, the more influential factors are, and the more complicated the preventive measures are. Four factors, such as the relative velocity of two cars, the degree of collision overlap, the material strength of the rear side protective device and the height from the ground, have different effects on the impact waveform, which are the serious and frequent car and freight car rear-end accidents. Furthermore, the degree of influence on different parts of human body is different. On the whole, the speed and bias have a great influence on the occupant cabin invasion, and the relative speed of the two vehicles, the material of the rear side protective device and the height of the rear side of the truck have a higher influence on the head and neck injury of the human body.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.3

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