城镇地震灾害应急管理影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 22:35

本文选题：地震灾害 + 应急管理　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：地震灾害严重影响我国国民经济的发展,地震灾害对于一个地区乃至一个国家的社会生活和经济活动会造成巨大的冲击,这已经引起政府和国际社会的高度重视。此外,由于地震灾害防御难度极大,与洪水、台风相比,地震的预测要困难得多,要缓解地震灾害,需要各方面的协调和配合,需要全社会长期艰苦细致的应急管理工作。地震灾害的应急管理工作是一个复杂又长期的系统工程,系统内的各个影响因素都会对系统的效果产生影响,但同时,不同因素对系统的影响大小也是不同的。所以,非常有必要识别出地震灾害应急管理中的关键因素和这些关键因素的路径,并在此基础上对应急管理系统的实施提出建议,从而确定重点的管理内容和实施方法,切实提高应急管理工作的效率。本文在现有研究的基础上,根据地震灾害应急管理工作的内容,总结出应急管理的在灾前、中、后的三个阶段中的20个影响因素。在此基础上,本文的重点是对这些影响因素进行重要性分析和关联性分析,从而识别出地震灾害应急管理中的关键因素和影响路径。首先运用基于DSmT的DEMATEL方法确定影响因素对地震灾害应急管理系统整体的影响程度,并绘制了因果图,将所有影响因素分为原因组和结果组。模型得出了 5个具有高重要程度的影响因素X2 (合理的组织架构,明确的机构职责),X15 (应急信息系统保障信息有效传递),X10(政府的统一领导组织协调能力),X16 (现代物流技术的运用)和X20 (应急管理系统的再优化)。本文进一步运用最大平均差熵方法,确定包含最大影响关系信息量的影响因素的关联关系图,进而分析影响因素间的相互关联关系。结论表明:在重要性分析和关联分析的基础上,成功识别出影响地震灾害应急管理的6个关键因素,以及以X2 (合理的组织架构,明确的机构职责)为实施起点等的6条影响路径。最后本文结合云南大理州漾濞县5.1级地震,提出地震灾害应急管理实施的建议,在重点实施关键因素的前提下,将整个实施过程中划分为准备工作、中期加强、整体实施和辅助加强四个阶段。每个步骤中包含不同影响因素的准备、实施和加强工作,通过实施路径中四个过程的动态实施和循环改进,切实保障漾濞县地震灾害应急管理的高效运作。
[Abstract]:Earthquake disasters seriously affect the development of our national economy. Earthquake disasters will cause a huge impact on the social life and economic activities of a region or even a country, which has attracted great attention of the government and the international community. In addition, earthquake disaster prevention is extremely difficult, compared with floods and typhoons, earthquake prediction is much more difficult. To mitigate earthquake disasters, it needs coordination and cooperation from all aspects, and the whole society needs long-term hard and meticulous emergency management. The emergency management of earthquake disaster is a complex and long-term system engineering. All the influencing factors in the system will affect the effect of the system, but at the same time, the influence of different factors on the system is also different. Therefore, it is very necessary to identify the key factors and the path of these key factors in the earthquake disaster emergency management, and on this basis, to propose the implementation of the emergency management system, so as to determine the key management content and implementation methods. We will effectively improve the efficiency of emergency management. On the basis of existing research and according to the contents of earthquake disaster emergency management, this paper summarizes 20 influencing factors of emergency management in three stages: before, during and after the disaster. On this basis, this paper focuses on the importance analysis and correlation analysis of these influencing factors, so as to identify the key factors and influence paths in earthquake disaster emergency management. First, using DEMATEL method based on DSmT to determine the influence degree of the influence factors on the whole earthquake disaster emergency management system, and draw the causality diagram, and divide all the factors into cause group and result group. The model shows five influential factors X2 (reasonable organization structure) with high importance. Clear organizational responsibilities X15 (Emergency Information system (EIS) to ensure the effective transmission of information X10 (the coordinated ability of the government's unified leading organization) X16 (the application of modern logistics technology) and X20 (the re-optimization of emergency management system). In this paper, the maximum average difference entropy method is used to determine the correlation graph of the influencing factors including the maximum amount of relational information, and then to analyze the interrelation between the influencing factors. The results show that, on the basis of importance analysis and correlation analysis, six key factors affecting earthquake disaster emergency management are successfully identified, and X2 (rational organization structure) is used. Clear institutional responsibilities) for the implementation of the starting point of the 6 impact paths. Finally, combined with the M _ S 5.1 earthquake in Yangbi County, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province, the paper puts forward some suggestions for the implementation of earthquake disaster emergency management. On the premise of the key implementation factors, the whole implementation process is divided into preparatory work and strengthened in the medium term. Overall implementation and auxiliary strengthening of the four stages. Each step includes the preparation, implementation and strengthening of different influencing factors. Through the dynamic implementation and cyclic improvement of the four processes in the implementation path, the effective operation of earthquake emergency management in Yangbi County can be effectively guaranteed.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P315.9

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