IAP年代际预测试验中火山活动对太平洋海温预测技巧的影响

发布时间：2018-04-16 20:19

本文选题：年代际预测试验 + 火山活动　；参考：《地球科学进展》2017年04期

【摘要】：火山活动是影响全球气候变化的重要自然因子。在年代际预测试验中加入火山气溶胶强迫会带来火山爆发后短期内气候响应回报技巧的改变。基于耦合气候系统模式FGOALS-s2的中国科学院大气物理研究所年代际气候预测试验(DP-EnOI-IAU试验)结果,分析了火山活动对太平洋海温年代际预测技巧的影响。DP-EnOI-IAU试验引入了平流层火山气溶胶的辐射外强迫变化,在模拟的1960—2005年共发生4次强的热带火山爆发事件。结果表明,DP-EnOI-IAU试验在多数年份对太平洋海温具有显著的预测技巧,但预测技巧在1982年El Chichon火山爆发和1991年Pinatubo火山爆发后显著下降。模式对火山爆发后ENSO位相的模拟偏差导致了其对太平洋海温年代际预测技巧的下降。对于1982年El Chichon火山爆发,在火山爆发峰值时期和第3年冬季,赤道中东太平洋均表现出与观测相反的海温型响应,使得DP-EnOI-IAU试验对太平洋海温的年代际预测技巧显著下降。在1991年Pinatubo火山爆发后的秋冬季和第3年冬季,观测和模拟的热带海温型亦相反,模式对1991年火山爆发后太平洋海温的预测技巧降低。相对于1982年El Chichon和1991年Pinatubo火山爆发,模式对1963年Agung火山爆发后热带海温型响应的模拟与观测较为一致,此次火山爆发没有带来太平洋海温预测技巧的显著下降。
[Abstract]:Volcanic activity is an important natural factor affecting global climate change.The addition of volcanic aerosol forcing in Interdecadal prediction tests will result in a change in the technique of climate response return in the short term after volcanic eruption.DP-EnOI-IAU experiment of Interdecadal Climate Prediction in Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, based on coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2.The influence of volcanic activity on the Interdecadal prediction technique of Pacific SST was analyzed. The DP-EnOI-IAU experiment introduced the radiative forcing variation of stratospheric volcanic aerosols. Four strong tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the simulated 1960-2005 period.The results show that the DP-EnOI-IAU test has a significant predictive skill for Pacific SST in most years, but it decreased significantly after the El Chichon volcanic eruption in 1982 and the Pinatubo eruption in 1991.The simulated deviation of the model to the ENSO phase after the volcanic eruption resulted in the decline of the Interdecadal prediction technique of the Pacific SST.For the 1982 El Chichon volcanic eruption, during the peak period of the volcanic eruption and the third winter, the equatorial Middle East Pacific showed the opposite SST response, which significantly reduced the Interdecadal prediction skills of the DP-EnOI-IAU test for the Pacific SST.In the autumn winter and the third winter after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, the observed and simulated tropical sea surface temperature patterns were also reversed, and the prediction techniques for the Pacific Ocean SST after the 1991 volcanic eruption were reduced by the model.Compared with the El Chichon eruption in 1982 and the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, the model is consistent with the observation of the tropical SST response after the Agung eruption in 1963. This volcanic eruption has not resulted in a significant decrease in SST prediction techniques in the Pacific Ocean.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室;江苏省气候变化协同创新中心;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建立与研究”(编号:GYHY201506012) 国家自然科学基金项目“火山气溶胶对全球和东亚夏季风影响的模拟研究”(编号:41675082)资助~~
【分类号】：P317;P731.31

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