世界原油船队运力供给及发展趋势研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 04:29

本文选题：船队　切入点：运力供给　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国际原油航运市场是一个竞争异常激烈、形势多变难测的市场,因而是一个具有特殊风险的产业。世界上频发的政治事件、经济走势的波动、不确定的自然因素等都会影响国际原油航运市场的行情,增加航运企业的经营风险。因此,深刻分析原油航运市场变化,寻找原油航运市场的规律,在竞争激烈的国际航运市场中掌握主动,对船公司的经营和发展具有极为重要的意义。本文在总结国内外已有研究成果的基础上,系统地介绍了目前世界原油市场的产销和分布区位现状,归纳了目前世界主要原油运输航线,世界原油油轮船队规模、构成及拆建等基本动态,探讨了影响原油航运市场的主要因素,以及世界原油船队运力的供需平衡等问题。通过收集历年世界原油船队运力的数据,构建了油船运力总供给模型,并利用二进制模拟植物生长算法对对其未来变化进行定量预测。研究结果表明,本文建立的模型较为准确地反映了世界原油运力供给的变化规律,能够从整体趋势上进行较为准确的预测。作为特例,文中还对主要船型VLCC型油轮的运力供给进行了建模,模型较好地反应了其运力供给的变化规律。本文的分析思路和预测方法对于确定船队规模以及制定合理的经营策略具有一定的辅助决策作用。
[Abstract]:The international crude oil shipping market is a highly competitive and unpredictable market, so it is an industry with special risks. Political events and fluctuations in economic trends occur frequently in the world. Uncertain natural factors will affect the international crude oil shipping market and increase the operating risks of shipping enterprises. Therefore, we should deeply analyze the changes in the crude oil shipping market and find out the rules of the crude oil shipping market. It is of great significance for the management and development of shipping companies to master the initiative in the competitive international shipping market. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper systematically introduces the current situation of the production and distribution of the world crude oil market, summarizes the main crude oil shipping routes and the scale of the world crude oil tanker fleet at present. The main factors affecting the crude oil shipping market and the balance between supply and demand of the world crude oil fleet capacity are discussed. By collecting the data of the world crude oil fleet capacity over the years, the total supply model of oil tanker capacity is constructed, and the future changes are quantitatively predicted by using the binary simulated plant growth algorithm. The model established in this paper accurately reflects the changing law of the world crude oil transport capacity supply, and can be predicted more accurately from the overall trend. As a special case, the paper also models the transport capacity supply of the main ship type VLCC oil tanker. The model well reflects the changing law of its capacity supply. The analysis and prediction methods in this paper can help to determine the fleet size and formulate reasonable management strategy.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F551.6

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