基于系统动力学的城市公交服务水平动态仿真研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 03:07

本文选题：公共交通 + 服务水平　；参考：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：公共交通系统作为社会经济系统的子系统，对社会进步和经济发展发挥着重要的作用。随着经济的发展和居民收入水平的不断提高，人们对公共交通的服务水平提出了更高的要求。为了满足城市居民的出行需求，应对个体交通的竞争，增强公共交通的吸引力，公共交通必须提高服务水平。本文在公共交通服务质量和乘客满意度理论基础上，运用系统动力学的基本理论、原理和方法，以定性和定量方法相结合，研究公共交通动态系统的结构和行为，建立常规公共交通服务水平系统动力学模型。首先，在相关理论的基础上分析了影响公共交通服务水平的内外部因素，确定公共交通服务水平指标和权重，从系统的角度确定问题和系统的边界，研究公共交通需求、公共交通供给、公共交通政策以及公共交通服务水平等常规公共交通系统构成要素间的互动关系以及各个模块要素的因果关系和因果反馈关系，并绘制常规公共交通服务水平的系统动力学模型的流图，并建立了系统动力学模型。其次，以北京市为例根据现有的资料和统计数据，进行参数估计并编写系统动力学方程，，利用模拟软件VENSIM输出关键变量的值验证了常规公共交通系统动力学模型的有效性和可行性，运行模型并预测北京市常规公共交通服务水平的未来发展趋势。通过不同政策和政策合并方案下的模拟结果比选提高公共交通服务水平的政策方案，根据比选方案为城市交通决策机构提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As a subsystem of social economic system, public transportation system plays an important role in social progress and economic development. With the development of economy and the improvement of residents' income level, people demand higher service level of public transportation. In order to meet the travel needs of urban residents, to cope with individual traffic competition and enhance the attraction of public transport, public transport must improve the service level. Based on the theory of public transportation service quality and passenger satisfaction, this paper studies the structure and behavior of public transportation dynamic system by using the basic theory, principle and method of system dynamics, combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The system dynamics model of public transport service level is established. First of all, on the basis of relevant theories, this paper analyzes the internal and external factors that affect the level of public transport service, determines the index and weight of public transport service level, determines the problem and the boundary of the system from the system point of view, and studies the demand of public transport. The interaction among the components of public transport system, such as public transport supply, public transport policy and the level of public transport service, and the causality and causality feedback of each module element. The flow diagram of the system dynamics model at the public transport service level is drawn, and the system dynamics model is established. Secondly, taking Beijing as an example, according to the existing data and statistical data, the parameters are estimated and the system dynamics equations are compiled. The validity and feasibility of the dynamic model of the conventional public transport system are verified by the output of key variables by the simulation software VENSIM, and the future development trend of the service level of the conventional public transport in Beijing is predicted. According to the simulation results of different policies and policy amalgamation schemes, this paper compares and selects the policy schemes to improve the level of public transport services, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations for urban traffic decision making institutions according to the comparison schemes.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.17

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