拟建高速公路交通流量预测系统的设计与实现

发布时间：2018-05-09 07:00

本文选题：高速公路 + 交通流量预测　；参考：《中国科学院大学（工程管理与信息技术学院）》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通流量预测是高速公路投资建设者分析项目未来收益的关键指标之一,本文利用已建重庆沪渝高速公路的收费站业务数据,建立交通流量数据库,通过科学合理的数据挖掘算法,设计出基于数据挖掘技术的交通流量预测系统,以便为重庆涪丰石高速公路项目的投资建设、运营管理提供重要判断依据。本文首先介绍了课题研究的背景和国内外研究现状；其次说明了拟建高速公路交通流量预测系统开发涉及的核心理论——数据挖掘技术,并介绍了目前常用的智能交通软件；然后通过用例图详细描述了用户的需求,同时根据用户需求讨论了系统数据库的设计方案；以此为基础,本文给出了拟建高速公路交通流量预测系统的详细设计和实现过程,并且对系统的应用验证进行了展示,最后作者给出了系统运行结果与四阶段法预测结果、以及涪丰石高速公路实际交通流量的比较分析结论。本文工作取得的成果主要包括两个方面：第一,开发了基于B/S (Browser/Server,浏览器/服务器模式)三层体系结构的交通流量预测系统,该系统包括了数据管理、数据挖掘和系统维护功能；第二,采取了数据挖掘技术对已建高速公路收费站业务数据进行了分析,构建例如决策树及时间序列算法,系统通过数据挖掘分析可以根据现有收费站的交通流量信息预测出拟建高速公路的交通流量。本文讨论的拟建高速公路交通流量预测系统,可以为高速公路投资者设计合理的工程方案、测算前景交通流量、估算建造和运营成本提供依据,也将为国内高速公路业主和管理者提供有针对性的辅助管理以及决策上的相关技术帮助,并最终提高企业的投资收益。
[Abstract]:Traffic flow forecasting is one of the key indexes for highway investors to analyze the future income of the project. In this paper, the traffic flow database is established by using the service data of the toll station of the established Chongqing Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway. Through scientific and reasonable data mining algorithm, a traffic flow forecasting system based on data mining technology is designed in order to provide an important judgment basis for the investment construction and operation management of Fufeng expressway project in Chongqing. In this paper, the background of the research and the current situation of the research at home and abroad are introduced, secondly, the data mining technology which is involved in the development of the proposed expressway traffic flow forecasting system is described, and the commonly used intelligent transportation software is also introduced. Then, the user's requirements are described in detail by use case diagram, and the design scheme of the system database is discussed according to the user's demand. Based on this, the detailed design and implementation process of the proposed expressway traffic flow forecasting system are given. Finally, the author gives the results of the system operation and the prediction results of the four-stage method, as well as the conclusion of comparison and analysis of the actual traffic flow of Fufengshi Expressway. The main achievements of this paper include two aspects: first, a three-tier traffic flow forecasting system based on B / S browser / Server (browser / Server) architecture is developed, which includes data management, data mining and system maintenance functions; Secondly, the data mining technology is adopted to analyze the service data of the toll collection station, such as decision tree and time series algorithm. The system can predict the traffic flow of the proposed highway according to the traffic flow information of the existing toll stations through data mining analysis. The proposed highway traffic flow forecasting system discussed in this paper can provide the basis for highway investors to design reasonable project plan, calculate the foreground traffic flow, estimate the construction and operation cost. It will also provide domestic expressway owners and managers with targeted auxiliary management and relevant technical assistance in decision-making, and ultimately improve the investment returns of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学（工程管理与信息技术学院）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.14

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