广州珠海城轨运营对公路客运的影响分析及应对策略研究
发布时间：2018-10-15 16:59
【摘要】：随着广珠城轨的开通运营，广珠通道内原有的运输格局被打破，公路客运长期的垄断地位受到严峻的挑战和巨大的冲击。因此，从两种运输方式的协调发展和有序竞争的角度出发，采用旅客出行问卷调查深入研究广珠通道内旅客出行特征，有助于揭示广珠通道旅客出行方式选择的规律，为制定公路客运企业应对广珠城轨竞争的相关对策奠定理论基础。 论文在对比分析行为调查和意向调查优缺点的基础上，提出采用基于行为调查和意向调查联合的调查方法对广珠通道内旅客出行方式选择行为进行调查；通过对运输方式的供给特性和旅客出行的需求特性进行分析，完成调查问卷内容的设计；采用简单随机抽样调查的方法确定调查样本量，并阐述调查的实施过程。从旅客个人属性特征、旅客出行特征和旅客对运输方式的认知特性三个方面，论文分析广珠通道旅客出行特征。在对比分析非集计方法优缺点的基础上，提出二项Logit模型构建广珠通道内客流分担率预测模型；按照加法规则，，从经济性、舒适性、安全性、服务质量、快捷性和方便性六个方面构建效用函数，并采用无量纲化方法对变量进行无量纲化处理；通过构建的广珠通道内客流分担率预测2014年两种运输方式的分担率，并采用敏感性分析方法探讨公路客运企业的应对措施的效果。主要从微观、中观、宏观三个层面全方位地提出公路客运的应对策略。
[Abstract]:With the opening and operation of the Guangzhu rail, the original transportation pattern in the Guangzhu channel has been broken, and the long-term monopoly position of highway passenger transport has been severely challenged and greatly impacted. Therefore, from the perspective of coordinated development and orderly competition of the two modes of transportation, the use of passenger travel questionnaires to study the travel characteristics of passengers in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor will help to reveal the rules of the choice of travel modes for passengers in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor. It lays a theoretical foundation for road passenger transport enterprises to deal with the competition of Guangzhou-Zhuhai rail. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of behavioral survey and intention survey, the paper proposes to adopt the method of combining behavioral survey and intention investigation to investigate the choice of travel mode in Guangzhu corridor. Through the analysis of the supply characteristics of transportation mode and the demand characteristics of passenger travel, the design of the questionnaire is completed, and the sample quantity of the survey is determined by the method of simple random sampling survey, and the implementation process of the survey is described. This paper analyzes the travel characteristics of Guangzhu passageway from three aspects: personal attributes of passengers, travel characteristics of passengers and cognitive characteristics of transport modes. Based on the comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the disaggregate method, a two-term Logit model is proposed to predict the passenger flow rate in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai channel, which is based on the addition rules, from the aspects of economy, comfort, security, quality of service, etc. The utility function is constructed from the six aspects of quickness and convenience, and the dimensionless method is used to deal with the variables in a dimensionless way, and the passenger flow sharing rate in the Guangzhu Channel is used to predict the share rate of the two modes of transportation in 2014. And the sensitivity analysis method is used to discuss the effect of the countermeasures of highway passenger transport enterprises. Mainly from the micro-level, meso-view, macro-level of three-dimensional road passenger transport response strategy.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.4
本文编号：2273184
[Abstract]:With the opening and operation of the Guangzhu rail, the original transportation pattern in the Guangzhu channel has been broken, and the long-term monopoly position of highway passenger transport has been severely challenged and greatly impacted. Therefore, from the perspective of coordinated development and orderly competition of the two modes of transportation, the use of passenger travel questionnaires to study the travel characteristics of passengers in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor will help to reveal the rules of the choice of travel modes for passengers in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor. It lays a theoretical foundation for road passenger transport enterprises to deal with the competition of Guangzhou-Zhuhai rail. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of behavioral survey and intention survey, the paper proposes to adopt the method of combining behavioral survey and intention investigation to investigate the choice of travel mode in Guangzhu corridor. Through the analysis of the supply characteristics of transportation mode and the demand characteristics of passenger travel, the design of the questionnaire is completed, and the sample quantity of the survey is determined by the method of simple random sampling survey, and the implementation process of the survey is described. This paper analyzes the travel characteristics of Guangzhu passageway from three aspects: personal attributes of passengers, travel characteristics of passengers and cognitive characteristics of transport modes. Based on the comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the disaggregate method, a two-term Logit model is proposed to predict the passenger flow rate in the Guangzhou-Zhuhai channel, which is based on the addition rules, from the aspects of economy, comfort, security, quality of service, etc. The utility function is constructed from the six aspects of quickness and convenience, and the dimensionless method is used to deal with the variables in a dimensionless way, and the passenger flow sharing rate in the Guangzhu Channel is used to predict the share rate of the two modes of transportation in 2014. And the sensitivity analysis method is used to discuss the effect of the countermeasures of highway passenger transport enterprises. Mainly from the micro-level, meso-view, macro-level of three-dimensional road passenger transport response strategy.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.4
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