中美煤矿安全生产水平对等比较与预测

发布时间：2018-04-12 14:34

本文选题：煤矿安全 + 安全生产状况　；参考：《煤矿安全》2017年04期

【摘要】：为了从发展的角度探究中国煤炭安全生产现状所处阶段,并对未来发展趋势进行整体把握,以持续地提高我国煤矿安全生产水平;通过采用对等点、对等变化率的对比方法从历史发展的角度对中美煤炭安全生产状况进行对比;采用对等变化率和拟合指数函数预测的方法对中国煤矿未来发展趋势和百万吨死亡率进行了预测。结果表明:我国煤矿目前安全生产发展水平与美国20世纪70年代接近,变化率与美国20世纪40年代至50年代大致相同,未来我国煤矿安全生产水平提高的速度将逐步减缓,2020年我国百万吨死亡率预计为0.04~0.06。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the stage of coal safety production in China from the perspective of development, and to grasp the future development trend as a whole, in order to continuously improve the level of coal mine safety production in China,This paper compares the coal safety production situation between China and America from the perspective of historical development, and forecasts the future development trend and the death rate of millions of tons of coal mines in China by using the method of equal change rate and the prediction of fitting exponential function.The results show that the development level of coal mine safety in our country is close to that of the United States in the 1970s, and the change rate is approximately the same as that in the United States from the 1940s to the 1950s.In the future, the increasing rate of coal mine safety production level in China will slow down gradually, and the death rate of 1 million tons in 2020 is expected to be 0.04% 0.06.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院;中国矿业大学(北京)煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室;国家安全生产监督管理总局国际交流合作中心;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研专项资金资助项目(2009kz03)
【分类号】：TD79

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