有效降雨最优统计时段尺度研究——以河北省河间市为例

发布时间：2018-03-26 21:15

本文选题：有效降雨　切入点：腾发量　出处：《人民长江》2017年11期

【摘要】：准确评价有效降雨量对农业生产规划具有重要意义。时段内腾发量与降雨量比较法确定有效降雨量在实践中是一种计算简便、通用性强的评价方法,其中统计时段尺度参数的合理选取是应用该方法的关键。以河北省黑龙港地区河间市为例,基于有效降雨量和农业灌溉量之间存在互逆相关关系的原理,开展了2011~2015年不同统计时段尺度有效降雨量与农灌开采量之间的非线性回归分析,并通过拟合优度变化规律的分析,得出了统计时段尺度的优选值域范围和最优推荐值。研究结果表明,有效降雨量与农灌开采量的相关关系可采用幂函数来拟合,7~12 d为统计时段尺度的较优取值区间,可决系数达到0.7以上,10 d(旬)尺度为最优推荐值,可决系数约为0.9。研究过程中利用高分遥感影像解译数据对河间市主要作物的统计种植面积数据进行了校核,并采用"以电折水"的方式对该市农灌开采量进行评估,有效提高了研究成果的可靠性。
[Abstract]:Accurate evaluation of effective rainfall is of great significance to the planning of agricultural production. The method of comparing the amount of evapotranspiration and rainfall in time interval to determine the effective rainfall is a simple and versatile evaluation method in practice. The reasonable selection of statistical time scale parameters is the key to the application of this method. Taking Hejian City, Heilongjiang Province, Hebei Province as an example, based on the principle that there is a mutual inverse correlation between effective rainfall and agricultural irrigation quantity, The nonlinear regression analysis was carried out between effective rainfall and agricultural irrigation exploitation in different statistical periods from 2011 to 2015, and the variation law of goodness of fit was analyzed. The range of optimal range and the optimal recommended value of statistical time scale are obtained. The results show that the correlation between effective rainfall and agricultural irrigation yield can be fitted by power function. The resolution coefficient of 10 days (10 days) is the best recommended value, and the resolution coefficient is about 0.9. In the course of the study, the statistical planting area data of the main crops in Hejian City were checked by using the high score remote sensing image interpretation data. The method of "electric break water" is used to evaluate the yield of agricultural irrigation in this city, which effectively improves the reliability of the research results.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室;
【基金】：科技部十三五国家重点研发计划课题“京津冀地下水压采修复与合理利用技术研发示范”(2016YFC0401404)
【分类号】：S161.6

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