中国粮食主产区主要气象因子时空演变特征及其对参考作物蒸散量影响

发布时间：2019-04-27 02:46

【摘要】：准确评估粮食主产区气象因子变化特征及对参考作物蒸散量(reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)的影响,对农田水文循环、区域农业水资源优化配置与高效利用等具有重要意义。利用中国粮食主产区258个气象站点1961 2013年的逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算ET0,通过M-K趋势检验法、偏相关分析、多元线性回归计算贡献率等方法,分析了1961—2013年中国粮食主产区主要气象因子时空演变及其对ET0变化的贡献特征。结果表明,1961—2013年中国粮食主产区相对湿度、温度、降水在空间上由南至北呈降低趋势,而日照时间和风速则由南至北呈增高趋势;1961—2013年中国粮食主产区全区、温带湿润半湿润地区(I区)、温带干旱半干旱地区(II区)、亚热带湿润地区(III区)及暖温带半湿润地区(IV区)多年平均气温均呈增大趋势,平均风速、相对湿度、降水与日照时间均呈减小趋势;1961—2013年中国粮食主产区年内ET0均呈锯齿状下降,且ET0在四季呈现出夏季春季秋季冬季的特征;多年平均风速、气温、日照时间与ET0在全区及各分区总体均显著正相关(P0.05),而相对湿度与ET0在全区及各分区均极显著负相关(P0.01);1961—2013年中国粮食主产区全区及I~IV区气温、风速、相对湿度对ET0变化均具有较大贡献,其中相对湿度为I区、III区及IV区的主要气象驱动因子,其次为平均气温和风速;而II区ET0变化的主要驱动因子为风速,其平均贡献率WII(风速)为0.37;综上所述,中国粮食主产区主要气象因子变化特征与ET0的响应,均呈现出区域性、季节性差异。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to accurately evaluate the variation characteristics of meteorological factors in major grain producing areas and the effects on reference crop evapotranspiration (reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0), such as hydrological cycle in agricultural fields, optimal allocation and efficient utilization of regional agricultural water resources, and so on. Based on the daily meteorological data of 258 meteorological stations in the main grain producing areas of China in 1961 ~ 2013, the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the ET0, by MK trend test, partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression calculation of contribution rate and so on. The temporal and spatial evolution of main meteorological factors and their contribution to ET0 changes in major grain producing areas in China from 1961 to 2013 were analyzed. The results showed that the relative humidity, temperature and precipitation decreased from south to north in the main grain producing areas of China from 1961 to 2013, while the sunshine time and wind speed increased from south to north. China's main grain producing areas in 1961-2013, temperate humid and semi-humid regions (zone I), temperate arid and semi-arid regions (II region), The mean air temperature in subtropical humid area (III region) and warm temperate sub-humid area (IV region) showed an increasing trend, while the mean wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation and sunshine time decreased. During the year of 1961-2013, the ET0 of the main grain producing areas in China all showed serrated decline, and the ET0 showed the characteristics of summer, spring, autumn and winter in the four seasons. The mean wind speed, air temperature and sunshine time were positively correlated with ET0 (P0.05), while relative humidity (RH) was negatively correlated with ET0 (P0.01). From 1961 to 2013, the temperature, wind speed and relative humidity all contributed to the change of ET0 in the main grain producing areas and I~IV areas of China. The relative humidity was the main meteorological driving factor in the regions I, III and IV, followed by the average air temperature and wind speed. The main driving factor of ET0 change in II region is wind speed, and its average contribution rate WII (wind speed) is 0.37. In conclusion, the main meteorological factors in main grain producing areas in China and the response of ET0 show regional and seasonal differences.
【作者单位】：四川大学水利水电学院水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室;南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室;西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室中国旱区节水农业研究院;中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD24B01) 西北典型农区高效节水灌溉技术与集成应用项目(2016YFC0400200)
【分类号】：S161

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