重庆市土地利用空间格局分析及其预测模拟

发布时间：2018-02-23 02:10

本文关键词： 土地利用变化空间格局模拟 Binary Logistic回归 CLUE-S模型山地城市　出处：《重庆大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国幅员辽阔，不同区域的土地利用结构、土地利用程度以及土地资源利用方式等具有高度的空间异质性。因此，对小范围的典型区域进行研究是深入分析土地利用空间格局及其驱动机制的有效途径。同时，预测未来土地利用空间格局变化趋势能为管理部门及时调整土地利用政策提供科学依据，具有重要的现实意义。重庆作为典型的山地直辖市，快速的经济发展和城镇化进程使主城区城市用地不断向周边蔓延，耕地等生态用地急剧减少，土地生态环境和土地利用安全格局问题日益严峻。本文以重庆市主城区1980、1995、2005三个时相的土地利用现状为基础，采用GIS技术和景观格局分析方法，分析研究区1980~2005年的土地利用空间格局特征；利用Binary Logistic回归分析方法，讨论各用地类型与驱动因子间的关系；运用CLUE-S模型对研究区1996~2005年土地利用空间格局进行模拟，采用Kappa指数检验其模拟效果；最后，基于2005年土地利用现状图，预测研究区2015年土地利用空间格局，并对2005~2015年空间格局可能发生的主要变化进行了探讨分析。研究结果揭示：①1980~1995时期，主城区土地利用空间格局相对稳定，各土地利用类型数量变化和空间转移量较小，土地利用景观格局稳定。1995~2005时期，主城区土地利用空间格局变化显著：耕地面积逐步萎缩，由73%降到49%；建设用地急剧扩张，面积增加一倍；林地也处于增长趋势。在空间转移上，1995~2005期间，各地类间相互转移量较大，其中耕地至林地、耕地至建设用地、林地至耕地等均在20%以上，草地至耕地、林地在40%以上。快速的经济发展和城市化进程对景观格局影响较大，城区各地类景观均受到人类活动不同程度的干扰，各用地类型的总体特征和景观指数变化较显著，景观破碎度指数增幅明显，斑块化、破碎化较1980~1995时期严重。1995~2005时期主城区土地利用空间格局的变化突显出重庆自直辖以来快速的经济发展对日益增长的用地需求与有限土地资源间的矛盾。②Binary Logistic回归模型对各土地利用类型与驱动因素间关系的分析结果表明：地貌和气候等自然因素短时期内对各土地利用类型的影响较小，人口、经济和基础设施因素对各地类的影响较大，由此表明重庆市近来年的经济发展和城镇化建设是导致重庆市土地利用空间格局变化的主要原因。对回归分析进行ROC检验，得到ROC值均在0.7以上，说明模型的拟合优度较好。运用CLUE-S模型对1996~2005年土地利用空间格局进行模拟，模拟正确率为82.87%，Kappa指数为0.7944，表明CLUE-S模型可以较为准确地模拟研究区土地利用空间格局变化情况。③研究区2006~2015年的土地利用空间格局模拟结果显示，建设用地将不断向周边蔓延，致使其周边区域的耕地、林地逐步萎缩，位于坡度较低区域的耕地和林地较易被开发利用为建设用地。随着生态建设的迫切需要和重庆市建设“绿色宜居环保城市”的提出，草地面积可能有所增加。主城区各地类景观受到人类干扰强度和频率都将增强。景观破碎度指数减少，表明重庆市相关管理部门在快速发展同时更注重对土地的规划与合理分布，同时建设“绿色宜居环保城市”的提出加速了对主城区的规划建设和对局部破碎地区的整修，，这对研究区未来实现区域土地资源的可持续利用和土地利用安全格局的优化提供了一定参考。
[Abstract]:Chinese has a vast territory, the land use structure in different region, the degree of land use and land utilization method with a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, a typical area of the small area is an effective way to analyze the spatial pattern of land use and its driving mechanism. At the same time, predict the future spatial pattern of land use change trend for management timely adjustment of land use to provide a scientific basis for policy, has important practical significance. Chongqing is a typical mountainous municipality, rapid economic development and urbanization process of the city of city land continues to spread around, such as farmland ecological land decreased rapidly, the land ecological environment and land use pattern is a serious problem. Taking Chongqing city 198019952005 phase three of the land use status based, using GIS technology and landscape pattern analysis. The analysis method, the spatial pattern of land use in the study area 1980~2005; regression analysis method using Binary Logistic, to discuss various land types and driving factor; using CLUE-S model to simulate the land use spatial pattern of 1996~2005, using the Kappa index to test the simulation results; finally, based on the land use maps in 2005 the prediction, the spatial pattern of land use in the study area in 2015, the main changes in 2005~2015 and spatial pattern may occur are discussed.
The results of this study reveal that the 1980~1995 period, urban land use spatial pattern is relatively stable, the various types of land use change and spatial transfer amount is small, the landscape pattern of land use stability.1995~2005 period, urban land use spatial pattern change significantly: the area of cultivated land is gradually shrinking, decreased from 73% to 49%; the rapid expansion of construction land, area double; woodland were in a growth trend. In the space transfer, during 1995~2005, the transfer between the large amount of cropland to woodland, arable land to construction land, forest land and grassland were more than 20%, to more than 40%. Cultivated land, forest land in the city economic development and rapid urbanization greatly effect of landscape pattern around the city landscape are disturbed by human activities in different degree, the general characteristics and landscape index type changes significantly, the landscape fragmentation refers to The number of patches increased significantly, compared with the 1980~1995 period of serious fragmentation, the spatial pattern of land use in urban area in the period of.1995~2005 changes since Chongqing became a municipality highlights the rapid economic development of the growing demand for land and limited land resources. The contradiction between the Binary Logistic regression model using type and analysis of driving factors in the relationship between the results of the land: natural landscape and climate factors in a short period of time for each land use type of small population, the impact of economic and infrastructure factors of all the class of the larger, which indicates that the construction of Chongqing city economic development and urbanization in recent years is mainly due to the spatial pattern of land use change in Chongqing city. The regression analysis ROC test, ROC values were above 0.7, indicating the model better fit. The use of CLUE-S model of land use spatial 1996~2005 The pattern of simulation, simulation accuracy rate is 82.87%, Kappa index was 0.7944, indicating that the CLUE-S model can accurately simulate the changes of the spatial pattern of land use in the study area. The study area 2006~2015 the spatial pattern of land use in the simulation results show that the construction land will continue to spread around, the surrounding area of cultivated land, forest land gradually located in the lower area of atrophy, slope farmland and woodland was relatively easy for the development and utilization of construction land. With the development of ecological construction and the urgent needs of the construction of Chongqing city "green livable city environmental protection", the grass area may increase. Urban area around the landscape by human disturbance intensity and frequency of landscape fragmentation will be enhanced. The index shows that Chongqing is reduced, and the rapid development of the relevant administrative departments pay more attention to planning and rational distribution of land, while the construction of livable city green environmental protection "The proposal" accelerated the planning and construction of the main urban area and renovating the local crushing area, which provided a reference for the future realization of the sustainable utilization of the regional land resources and the optimization of the land use security pattern in the research area.

【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.113

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