中—非国际建设工程项目中的风险评价实证研究

发布时间：2018-09-04 16:28

【摘要】：近年来，中国和非洲之间的贸易额不断增长，2012年已达1985亿美元并且被估算在2015年达到3850亿美元。非洲大陆是中国最重要的经济合作伙伴（排在法国和美国前面），但是中国企业尤其是与建筑相关的公司在非洲正在面临一系列管理问题，如果不采取相应的措施，这很可能将严重威胁到未来他们在非洲建筑市场的扩张。中非国际建设项目管理的主要问题之一就是风险管理问题。中国企业目前对这些问题并没有认真考虑。本文通过对中非建设项目调查和采访来识别中非国际建设项目的主要风险源。基于调查分析所得到的数据，通过实证研究识别了在项目每个阶段的风险，并根据其严重程度和发生概率运用层次分析方法(AHP)来分析主要风险和风险源，结合决策支持技术（DST）来评估其发生严重程度。在风险分析的基础上，针对主要项目风险提出相应的应对措施，以通过有效的风险管理来减少目前中非国际建设项目中所遇到费用增加以及项目交付延误等风险。研究结果表明，在中非国际建设项目(SA-ICPs)实施过程中，施工筹建阶段缺乏对施工现场、环境以及组织文化差异的调查，是最大风险源之一。本文创新性地提出了履行风险管理的不同研究框架以及文化管理方法的解决方案，，并应用该框架及方案对两个项目案例进行评估，研究结果表明了该研究框架及方案对中非国际建设程项目的风险管理研究的有效性。本文的研究，为中国承包商及当地业主（政府）了解中非建设工程项目风险并依据项目风险评估的结果来管理项目过程中所遇到的主要风险提供了参考和帮助。
[Abstract]:Trade between China and Africa has grown in recent years, reaching $198.5 billion in 2012 and estimated at $385 billion in 2015. The African continent is China's most important economic partner (ahead of France and the United States), but Chinese companies, especially those related to construction, are facing a series of management problems in Africa if they do not take appropriate measures. This is likely to pose a serious threat to their future expansion in the African construction market. One of the main problems of international construction project management in China and Africa is risk management. Chinese companies are currently not seriously considering these issues. In this paper, the main risk sources of China-Africa international construction projects are identified through the investigation and interview of China-Africa construction projects. Based on the data obtained from the investigation and analysis, this paper identifies the risks in each stage of the project through empirical research, and analyzes the main risks and risk sources by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method according to the severity and probability of occurrence. Combined with decision support technology (DST) to evaluate the severity of its occurrence. On the basis of risk analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding measures to deal with the risk of major projects, so as to reduce the risks such as the increase of cost and the delay of project delivery in the current China-Africa international construction projects through effective risk management. The results show that during the implementation of SA-ICPs, the lack of investigation on site, environment and organizational culture is one of the biggest risk sources. This paper innovatively proposes different research frameworks and cultural management solutions to fulfill risk management, and applies the framework and scheme to evaluate two project cases. The results show the effectiveness of the research framework and scheme in the risk management of China-Africa International Construction Program. The research in this paper provides reference and help for Chinese contractors and local owners (government) to understand the risk of non-construction project and manage the main risks in the process of project risk assessment according to the results of project risk assessment.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71

【共引文献】