基于生存分析的油气输送腐蚀管道维修策略研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 06:12

本文选题：伽马过程 + 逆高斯过程　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：腐蚀是引起石油天然气输送管道受损的关键因素,会降低管道剩余强度,缩短管道剩余寿命,增大管道的检修难度和运行费用;因此,研究腐蚀引起的管道服役寿命变化等具有重要的经济效益和社会价值。为解决腐蚀油气管道的剩余寿命预测及维修等可靠性问题,本文展开基于伽马过程、逆高斯过程的生存分析模型预测管道剩余寿命以及基于故障管道检修的马尔科夫建模优化管道维修的深入研究,主要研究内容如下:(1)为实现油气输送腐蚀管道定期维修经济最优化,本文基于伽马过程和可靠性相关理论,提出管道剩余寿命预测和维修策略优化方法。首先,采用伽马过程拟合管道腐蚀深度的变化规律;其次,建立腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测模型,进而计算其期望剩余寿命;最后,建立以维修程度、预防性维护最大值和平均剩余寿命为优化变量,期望费用率最低为目标的维修决策优化模型,确定最佳维修次数和期望费用率。(2)为提供管道安全管理最优维修方案,本文建立油气输送管道逆高斯-状态空间腐蚀退化过程模型和维修决策优化模型。首先,根据腐蚀机理建立逆高斯-状态空间退化过程模型;其次,运用EM-PF方法估计模型参数,进而预测管道剩余寿命;最后,根据所建立腐蚀油气管道维修决策优化模型,计算模型最优的维修更换时间和最小费用。(3)为研究考虑随机性、概率风险定量显著的腐蚀油气输送管道检修优化问题,本文建立基于故障多发的腐蚀管道完善检修的随机模型。首先,利用威布尔分布计算依据管壁厚度所划分各生命周期阶段的转移概率;其次,建立定期检修程序;最后,采用蒙特卡罗仿真退化模型测定腐蚀缺陷深度的预期增长。作为油气输送管道腐蚀建模与仿真的基础性研究,本论文为油气输送管道腐蚀的深入研究提供了新的角度与方法,有助于深化对油气输送管道特别是剩余寿命以及优化维修策略的认识。所提出的基于伽马过程、逆高斯过程的生存分析模型和基于泄露故障的检修模型,案例分析表明具有一定的实用性,有助于提高可油气输送管道安全管理水平,减少伤亡事故。
[Abstract]:Corrosion is the key factor that causes the damage of oil and gas pipeline. It will reduce the residual strength of pipeline, shorten the remaining life of pipeline, increase the maintenance difficulty and operation cost of pipeline. It is of great economic and social value to study the variation of service life of pipeline caused by corrosion. In order to solve the reliability problems such as residual life prediction and maintenance of corroded oil and gas pipelines, this paper develops a gamma-ray process. The survival analysis model of inverse Gao Si process is used to predict the remaining life of pipeline, and the Markov model based on fault pipeline maintenance to optimize pipeline maintenance is deeply studied. The main research contents are as follows: (1) in order to realize the economic optimization of periodic maintenance of corroded pipelines for oil and gas transportation, based on the theory of gamma process and reliability, this paper puts forward the methods of predicting the remaining life of pipelines and optimizing the maintenance strategy. First, the gamma process is used to fit the variation rule of corrosion depth of pipeline; secondly, a prediction model of residual life of corroded pipeline is established, and then its expected residual life is calculated. The optimal maintenance decision model with the maximum value and average residual life of preventive maintenance as the optimization variable and the lowest expected cost rate as the objective, the optimal maintenance times and the expected cost rate are determined to provide the optimal maintenance scheme for pipeline safety management. In this paper, the inverse Gao Si-state space corrosion degradation process model and maintenance decision optimization model of oil and gas pipeline are established. Firstly, according to the corrosion mechanism, the inverse Gao Si-state space degradation process model is established; secondly, the parameters of the model are estimated by using EM-PF method, and then the remaining life of pipeline is predicted. Finally, according to the established maintenance decision optimization model of corroded oil and gas pipeline, The optimal maintenance and replacement time and minimum cost of the model. In order to study the stochastic and probabilistic risk quantitative and significant corrosion pipeline maintenance optimization problem, this paper establishes a stochastic model based on fault-prone corrosion pipeline perfect maintenance. First, Weibull distribution is used to calculate the transition probability of each life cycle according to the thickness of pipe wall; secondly, a periodic overhaul procedure is established; finally, the expected growth of corrosion defect depth is determined by Monte Carlo simulation degradation model. As the basic research of corrosion modeling and simulation of oil and gas transportation pipeline, this paper provides a new angle and method for the further study of oil and gas pipeline corrosion. It is helpful to deepen the understanding of oil and gas pipeline, especially the residual life, and optimize the maintenance strategy. The survival analysis model based on gamma process, inverse Gao Si process and maintenance model based on leakage fault are proposed. The case analysis shows that the model is practical, which is helpful to improve the safety management level of oil-gas pipeline and reduce casualties.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TE988.2

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