白龟山水库入库洪水预报分布式模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 01:07

本文选题：洪水预报　切入点：分布式物理水文模型　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：白龟山水库流域下垫面条件复杂,人类活动剧烈,洪水受上游昭平台水库影响,洪水预报难度大,采用常规的洪水预报模型无法满足水库防洪调度对洪水预报的精度要求。为了充分发挥水库在淮河流域防洪中的作用,实现水库洪水资源的最大化利用,需要高精度的水库入库洪水预报作支撑。采用国内外新一代流域洪水预报模型——流溪河模型开展了白龟山水库入库洪水预报研究。以高分辨率的DEM为依据,构建了白龟山水库入库洪水预报流溪河模型结构,并确定了初始模型参数,采用PSO优化算法,对模型参数进行了自动优选。对白龟山水库实测入库洪水过程进行了模拟,效果明显优于集总式NAM模型,可应用于白龟山水库入库洪水预报。
[Abstract]:The condition of underlying surface of Baiguishan reservoir basin is complex, the human activity is intense, the flood is affected by the Zhaotai reservoir in the upper reaches, and it is difficult to forecast the flood. The conventional flood forecasting model can not meet the precision requirement of flood forecast for reservoir flood control operation. In order to give full play to the role of reservoir in flood control in Huaihe River basin, the maximum utilization of reservoir flood resources can be realized. High precision reservoir flood forecast is needed. Based on high resolution DEM, Liuxihe model, a new flood forecasting model, is used to study the flood forecast of Baiguishan reservoir. The structure of Liuxi River model for flood prediction of Baiguishan reservoir is constructed, and the initial model parameters are determined. The model parameters are automatically optimized by using PSO optimization algorithm. The actual flood process of Baiguishan reservoir is simulated. The effect is obviously better than the lumped NAM model and can be applied to the flood forecast of Baiguishan reservoir.
【作者单位】：河南省白龟山水库管理局;中山大学地理科学与规划学院;
【基金】：河南省水利厅科技项目(GG201402) 国家自然科学基金项目(50479033)
【分类号】：TV697.13

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