土石坝安全监测数据的模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 08:43

本文选题：大坝安全监测　切入点：主成分分析　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：统计模型在土石坝安全监控分析中占有着至关重要的地位,本文针对现有统计模型中存在的不足,结合某土石坝垂直位移的实测数据进行了以下分析:(1)为了避免回归模型中可能存在的多重共线性现象,在保证信息损失最小的情况下先提取主成分,并与因变量进行最小二乘回归,利用得到的模型进行预测并检验预测效果。(2为了解决自变量监测数据缺失的问题,对非平稳时间序列建立自回归积分滑动平均模型,利用得到的模型进行预测并检验预测效果。(3)为了避免非平稳回归模型中可能存在的伪回归现象,对非平稳自变量与因变量序列之间的关系进行协整检验,对具有协整关系的变量建立向量误差修正模型,利用该模型进行预测并检验预测效果。通过研究得出了以下几个结论:(1)通过主成分分析提取出了2个主成分。它们解释了原系统中的99.403%的信息,与传统的逐步回归模型相比,主成分分析法克服了自变量间的多重共线性问题,所建立的主成分回归模型可决系数更高,回归系数更为合理。(2)就模型的预测精度而言,VEC模型最高,ARIMA模型次之,主成分回归模型最低。(3)通过对自变量和因变量进行协整检验,确定了它们在监测时段内存在均衡的协整关系,根据它们之间的协整关系建立了向量误差修正模型,可初步判断在监测时段内坝顶测点的垂直位移是稳定的。
[Abstract]:The statistical model plays an important role in the safety monitoring and analysis of earth-rock dams.Based on the measured data of vertical displacement of a certain earth-rock dam, the following analysis is made: (1) in order to avoid the multiple collinear phenomena that may exist in the regression model, the principal components are extracted under the condition that the information loss is minimized.In order to solve the problem of the lack of monitoring data of independent variables, an autoregressive integral moving average model is established for non-stationary time series.In order to avoid the pseudo-regression phenomenon that may exist in the non-stationary regression model, the relationship between the non-stationary independent variable and the dependent variable sequence is tested by cointegration test.A vector error correction model is established for the variables with cointegration relationship. The model is used to predict and test the prediction effect.The following conclusions were obtained: 1) two principal components were extracted by principal component analysis.The regression coefficient is more reasonable. (2) in terms of the prediction accuracy of the model, VEC model is the highest and Arima model is the second, and the principal component regression model is the lowest.According to the cointegration relationship between them, a vector error correction model is established. It can be preliminarily judged that the vertical displacement of the measured point at the dam top during the monitoring period is stable.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV698.1

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