黄河干流、鲁东南和鲁西北地区水资源丰枯互补关系

发布时间：2018-05-14 00:29

本文选题：Copula函数 + 丰枯遭遇　；参考：《水电能源科学》2017年09期

【摘要】：鲁西北地区水资源贫乏,对黄河水的依赖性强;鲁东南地区水资源丰富,出境水量较大,具有较大的水资源开发利用潜力。随着黄河上中游地区用水量的增加,黄河进入山东境内的水量有减少趋势。为缓解鲁西北地区水资源供需矛盾突出的状况,以鲁西北的德州市为例,采用Copula函数法构建了二维、三维联合分布模型,分析了黄河干流来水以及鲁东南、鲁西北地区降水的丰枯遭遇概率及丰枯互补可行性。研究结果表明,黄河、鲁东南及鲁西北地区水资源具有一定丰枯互补性,可为山东省水资源合理配置提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:The northwest region of Shandong Province is poor in water resources and strongly dependent on the Yellow River water, and the southeast of Shandong Province is rich in water resources with a large amount of water out of the country, which has a great potential for water resources development and utilization. With the increase of water consumption in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, the amount of water entering Shandong has a decreasing trend. In order to alleviate the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in northwestern Shandong Province, taking Dezhou City in Northwest Shandong Province as an example, the two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distribution models are constructed by using Copula function method, and the water coming from the main stream of the Yellow River and the southeast of Shandong are analyzed. The probability of rainfall occurrence and the feasibility of complementation of precipitation in Northwest Shandong Province. The results show that the water resources of the Yellow River, the southeast of Shandong and the northwest of Shandong are complementary to each other, which can provide a theoretical basis for the rational allocation of water resources in Shandong Province.
【作者单位】：山东大学土建与水利学院;山东省水利勘测设计院;
【基金】：水利部公益性行业科研经费专项项目(201501054)
【分类号】：TV213.4

【相似文献】