当前位置:主页 > 科技论文 > 水利工程论文 >

淮河流域水资源短缺风险评估与时空分析

发布时间:2018-05-20 03:27

  本文选题:水资源风险 + 熵权法 ; 参考:《南水北调与水利科技》2017年06期


【摘要】:根据2003-2013年淮河流域五省的降水量、径流系数、人均水资源量、人均GDP、人口密度等相关数据,构建水资源短缺风险评价体系,用熵权法对指标赋值,运用可变模糊模型对淮河流域及各省的水资源短缺风险进行评估和时空差异分析。结果表明:2003-2013年间淮河流域水资源短缺风险值总体较高,且呈缓慢的增长趋势,2004年降水较少,风险值达到最高;十年间河南省风险增加最为明显,而山东省较为稳定,风险增加也最低;在淮河流域五个区域中,河南省的风险程度最高,达到3.52;江苏省、山东省次之;安徽省和湖北省相对较低,达到2.86和2.51。水资源短缺风险二级指标分析发现,危险性最强的是河南省,安徽省最小;水资源短缺易损性最强的是山东省,湖北省最小;水资源短缺暴露性最强的是江苏省,山东省最小;水资源短缺可恢复性最好的是湖北省,河南省最差。同时,所有评价指标中人口密度、人均GDP、降水量对水资源短缺风险的影响较大。
[Abstract]:Based on the relevant data of precipitation, runoff coefficient, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density in five provinces of Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2013, the risk assessment system of water resources shortage was constructed, and the indexes were assigned by entropy weight method. The variable fuzzy model is used to evaluate the risk of water shortage in Huaihe River basin and every province. The results show that the risk value of water resources shortage in Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2013 is higher and the risk value is the highest in 2004, the precipitation is less and the risk value is the highest in 2004, the risk in Henan Province is the most obvious in the past ten years, but in Shandong Province is more stable. Among the five regions of the Huaihe River Basin, Henan Province has the highest risk level of 3.52; Jiangsu Province, Shandong Province is the second; Anhui Province and Hubei Province are relatively low, reaching 2.86 and 2.51. The second level index analysis of water resources shortage risk shows that Henan Province is the most dangerous, Anhui Province is the least, Shandong Province is the most vulnerable to water shortage, Hubei Province is the least, Jiangsu Province is the most exposed to water resources shortage, and Shandong Province is the smallest. Water shortage is best in Hubei Province and the worst in Henan Province. At the same time, the population density, per capita GDP and precipitation have a great influence on the risk of water shortage.
【作者单位】: 滁州学院地理信息与旅游学院;安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院;
【基金】:安徽高校人文社科重点研究基地项目(SK2015A176) 滁州学院科技创新团队支持计划项目(CXTD201105)~~
【分类号】:TV213.4

【相似文献】

相关期刊论文 前10条

1 远亮;山东半岛地区水资源短缺状况及对策建议[J];山东环境;2000年06期

2 张庆田;廊坊市水资源短缺状况及对策[J];河北水利;2000年02期

3 钱军祥;越南水资源短缺将影响农业和发电[J];水利水电快报;2001年13期

4 马元s,

本文编号:1913002


资料下载
论文发表

本文链接:https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/shuiwenshuili/1913002.html


Copyright(c)文论论文网All Rights Reserved | 网站地图 |

版权申明:资料由用户b87e2***提供,本站仅收录摘要或目录,作者需要删除请E-mail邮箱bigeng88@qq.com