珠江流域分布式水文模拟及水库压咸优化调度研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 16:04

【摘要】：珠江下游地区在枯水季节和枯水年份受海水上溯的影响，澳门、珠海、广州等城市饮水安全长期受到严重威胁。西江、北江流域大型水库多次通过实时调度缓解三角洲地区的饮水危机，，但是水质问题目前尚未得到根本解决。珠江流域范围大，降雨分布不均，径流量年内分配不均，天然枯季径流不能完全满足下游地区抑制咸潮的要求，因此解决咸潮上溯问题除了要对流域枯季来水过程有充分认知，还需要进一步考虑流域水库群建立及运行对枯季径流带来的影响。本文主要研究内容及成果如下：（1）基于分布式水文模型EasyDHM，完成了珠江流域分布式水文模型的构建，并对流域水文站天然枯季径流过程及骨干水库天然入库径流变化进行了详细的分析。本文在对珠江流域进行空间单元划分时充分考虑了水库的作用，为水库调度模型提供了接口。对枯季流域来水过程分析表明：2000年以来，各水文站枯季来水量较多年平均偏少；迁江至梧州区间流量对于梧州站流量的贡献较大；龙滩、岩滩骨干水库近年来入库流量呈减小趋势。（2）分布式水文模型为水库调度模型提供入流过程的计算结果，本文中主要采用调度图来指导水库运行。通过与水文模型的耦合构建了西江流域梯级水库群联合调度模拟模型，并按照大型水库已建和拟建的情况，将模拟方案分为天然情景、单水库情景、近期情景和远期情景等，定量分析了大型水库群联合调度对流域径流、发电、压咸及防洪等方面的影响。（3）针对水库调度中实测出流与模拟出流不一致的问题，通过探讨水库的调度过程和调度规则概化，对水库实际运行中的调度规则反演优化方法进行了探索。将水库分为有实测出流和无实测出流两种类型分别进行调度规则反演优化，结果表明按照反演优化规则运行的水库出流与实测水库出流的吻合度较高，历史调度规则反演可以提高水库出流的模拟精度，有利于减小因上游水库放水导致的下游流域来水预报的不确定性。（4）针对流域下游压咸补淡的总体需求，采用多目标优化方法，构建了基于改进的水库调度图的枯季流域水库群压咸优化调度模型。通过对调度图的优化给出了缓解咸潮上溯问题的流域枯季压咸调度方案。结果表明，优化调度后流域在平偏枯和偏枯来水年枯季径流均能达到压咸流量要求，而在特枯来水年压咸保证率也提升到了0.83，实现了保障发电效益的同时水资源在枯季的高效利用。
[Abstract]:The lower reaches of the Pearl River are affected by sea water backtracking during dry seasons and dry years, and drinking water safety in Macao, Zhuhai, Guangzhou and other cities has been seriously threatened for a long time. The large reservoirs in Xijiang River and Beijiang River basin have been used for many times to alleviate the drinking water crisis in the delta area through real-time operation, but the water quality problem has not been solved fundamentally. The Pearl River Basin has a large area, uneven rainfall distribution, uneven distribution of runoff in the year, natural dry season runoff can not fully meet the requirements of the downstream area to suppress the salty tide, so to solve the problem of salt tide upstream, we should not only have a full understanding of the process of water coming in the dry season of the basin. It is also necessary to further consider the effects of the establishment and operation of reservoir groups on runoff in dry season. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the distributed hydrological model (EasyDHM,), a distributed hydrological model for the Pearl River Basin has been constructed. The process of natural dry season runoff of hydrologic station and the change of natural inflow runoff of key reservoirs are analyzed in detail. In this paper, the function of reservoir is fully considered in the space unit division of the Pearl River basin, which provides the interface for reservoir operation model. The analysis of the process of water coming from the dry season basin shows that the average water coming from each hydrologic station in dry season is less than that in many years since 2000, the discharge from the river to Wuzhou section has a great contribution to the flow rate of Wuzhou station, Longtan, Longtan, Wuzhou, Wuzhou, Wuzhou and Longtan, In recent years, the inflow flow of Yantan key reservoir tends to decrease. (2) the distributed hydrological model provides the calculation results of the inflow process for the reservoir operation model. In this paper, the dispatching diagram is mainly used to guide the reservoir operation. By coupling with hydrological model, the simulation model of cascade reservoir group operation in Xijiang River basin is constructed. According to the situation that large reservoirs have been built and planned to be built, the simulation scheme is divided into natural scenario, single reservoir scenario, short-term scenario and long-term scenario, etc. The effects of combined operation of large reservoirs on river basin runoff, power generation, salt reduction and flood control are quantitatively analyzed. (3) aiming at the inconsistency between measured and simulated outflows in reservoir operation, By discussing the reservoir operation process and generalizability of the operation rules, the inversion optimization method of the operation rules in the actual operation of the reservoir is explored. The reservoir is divided into two types: the one with and without the measured flow. The results show that the flow of the reservoir running according to the inversion optimization rule is in good agreement with that of the measured one. The inversion of historical dispatching rules can improve the simulation accuracy of reservoir outflow and reduce the uncertainty of the downstream basin water forecast caused by upstream reservoir discharge. (4) aiming at the overall demand of the lower reaches of the basin, it is necessary to reduce the amount of salt and salt in the lower reaches of the basin. Based on the improved reservoir dispatching diagram, a multi-objective optimization method is used to construct a model for the optimal operation of reservoirs in dry season watershed. Based on the optimization of the scheduling chart, the paper presents a scheme to alleviate the problem of saltwater uptracking in the dry season of the basin. The results show that the runoff in dry season and dry season can meet the demand of saline discharge after optimal regulation. The annual guarantee rate of salt pressure in the special dry water is also increased to 0.83, which realizes the efficient utilization of water resources in the dry season while ensuring the benefit of power generation.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV12;TV697.11

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