TOPMODEL与新安江模型参数不确定性分析及其应用

发布时间：2018-11-05 10:21

【摘要】：针对刁江流域洪水灾害频发,洪水灾害损失严重的不利情况,本文基于TOPMODEL与新安江模型研究刁江流域洪水预报方案：利用ArcGIS软件,采用AGREE算法对流域部分DEM进行修复,提取刁江流域的水流方向、流量、坡度、水系、地形指数、等流时线等流域信息。利用Visual Studio2010平台采用C#计算机语言设计和编写TOPMODEL和新安江模型计算程序。将TOPMODEL和新安江模型应用于刁江流域,为刁江流域做出合理地防汛决策提供科学依据和技术支撑。采用普适似然不确定估计方法(GLUE),分析TOPMODEL模型主要参数以及新安江模型敏感参数和区域性敏感参数的敏感性；以确定性系数、洪峰流量误差、峰现时差为评价指标,分析刁江流域的一般洪水、较大洪水、大洪水和特大洪水,得到TOPMODEL模型主要参数在刁江流域的适用范围。摘录2008～2013年资料详实的8场洪水作为TOPMODEL和新安江模型率定期洪水,2014～2015年的6场洪水作为验证期洪水,利用降雨、蒸发资料基于子流域进行径流模拟。TOPMODEL和新安江模型模拟结果为：TOPMODEL模型率定期8场洪水合格率为87.5%,平均确定性系数为0.83,验证期6场洪水合格率为83.3%,平均确定性系数为0.86,达到水文预报的乙级精度；新安江模型率定期8场洪水合格率为62.5%,平均确定性系数为0.7,验证期6场洪水合格率为66.7%,平均确定性系数为0.77,达到水文预报的丙级精度。模拟结果表明构建的TOPMODEL和新安江模型预报方案能够为刁江流域的洪水预报提供参考。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the adverse situation of frequent flood disaster and serious flood disaster loss in Diaojiang River Basin, this paper studies the flood forecasting scheme of Diaojiang River basin based on TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model: using ArcGIS software, using AGREE algorithm to repair part of DEM in the basin. The flow direction, flow rate, slope, water system, topographic index and isochron of the Diaojiang River basin were extracted. The program of TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model is designed and written by using C # computer language on Visual Studio2010 platform. The TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang models are applied to the Diaojiang river basin to provide scientific basis and technical support for making reasonable flood control decisions. The main parameters of TOPMODEL model, the sensitivity of sensitive parameters of Xinanjiang model and the sensitivity of regional sensitive parameters are analyzed by using universal likelihood uncertainty estimation method (GLUE),). With deterministic coefficient, Hong Feng discharge error and peak time difference as evaluation indexes, the general flood, big flood and super flood in Diaojiang River basin are analyzed, and the applicable range of main parameters of TOPMODEL model in Diaojiang river basin is obtained. Abstract from 2008 to 2013, 8 floods are used as TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model rate regular floods, 2014-2015 6 floods as validation period floods, using rainfall, The simulation results of TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang models are as follows: the eligible rate of TOPMODEL model is 87.5 times, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.83, and the eligible rate of 6 floods is 83.3% during the verification period. The average deterministic coefficient is 0.86, which reaches Grade B accuracy of hydrological forecast. The eligible rate of Xinanjiang model is 62.5, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.7, the qualified rate of 6 floods is 66.7 and the average deterministic coefficient is 0.77, which reaches the accuracy of grade C of hydrological forecast. The simulation results show that the constructed TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model forecasting schemes can provide reference for flood forecasting in Diaojiang River Basin.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P338

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