面向经济—生态的水库风险调度规则研究
发布时间：2018-11-05 11:30
【摘要】：随着人类对水资源的开发利用,包括水库在内的水利工程在不断满足人类经济社会用水的同时,也不断加剧着对天然河流的影响,甚至日渐取代了天然河流的水文过程,对生态环境造成了不可忽视的影响。随着经济社会的日益发展,这种因水资源供需矛盾及由于径流调节而造成的自然流量模式改变所引起的生态环境问题愈发突出,引起了人类社会的更多关注,社会对于维持河流生态结构和功能完整性的要求愈发强烈。如何合理的利用现有的工程,改善水库管理和调度模式,维持社会经济和生态的同步稳定发展,是当今水库调度的热点问题。本文针对水库的社会经济-生态环境多目标调度问题,在社会经济用水预测模型、河流生态流量模式评价、多目标非线性调度规则筛选及其水文不确定条件下的可靠性分析等方面展开研究,以期提出更加合理的基于水文改变指标(Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration,简称IHA)指标的水库经济-生态调度规则模式,丰富水库调度理论和方法。论文首先调研了关于水库生态用水调度的研究进展,总结分析了主要研究动态和学术路线,并以水库调度规则的技术路线为基础开展研究,主要包括:提出了社会经济需水影响因子,建立了基于数据挖掘方法的城市需水预测模型,以IHA指标体系为基础,评价了社会经济供水单目标模式下水利工程调度对河流生态水文因子的影响,分析了水库供水对流量模式的改变及对生态系统的影响;基于向量评价遗传算法,建立了面向社会经济-生态的多目标风险调度模型,研究提出了分区下泄流量的水库多目标调度规则模式,有效提升了水库优化调度求解能力;分析了不同范数形式的经济-生态多目标帕累托非劣解集特征,讨论了不同范数对应的经济-生态目标内涵及适应空间;研究分析了水文不确定条件下优化后的多目标调度规则对社会经济供水和生态水文因子的满足程度,讨论了预报调度对同时改善经济社会及生态环境供水的有效性和可行性。本文以淮河流域白龟山水库为例进行了应用研究,结果表明,所提出的水库分区下泄流量的多目标风险调度规则模式,可有效改善水库多目标非线性优化调度求解能力,对经济社会缺水-IHA生态水文因子改变型的多目标优化调度问题有效,为在竞争性水资源条件及风险条件下提高水资源利用效率,提供了技术上的参考。
[Abstract]:With the development and utilization of water resources, water conservancy projects, including reservoirs, not only satisfy human economic and social water use, but also aggravate the impact on natural rivers, and even replace the hydrological process of natural rivers day by day. The impact on the ecological environment can not be ignored. With the development of economy and society, the ecological and environmental problems caused by the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the change of natural flow pattern caused by runoff regulation are becoming more and more prominent, which has aroused more attention of human society. The social requirements for maintaining the ecological structure and functional integrity of rivers are becoming increasingly strong. How to make rational use of existing projects, improve reservoir management and operation mode, and maintain the synchronous and stable development of social economy and ecology is a hot issue in reservoir operation nowadays. In this paper, in view of the multi-objective scheduling problem of the socio-economic ecological environment of reservoirs, the prediction model of socio-economic water use and the evaluation of the ecological discharge model of rivers are presented. The selection of multi-objective nonlinear dispatching rules and the reliability analysis under hydrological uncertainty are studied in order to propose a more reasonable (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, based on hydrological change index. The model of reservoir economic-ecological regulation based on IHA) enriches the theory and method of reservoir operation. Firstly, the paper investigates the research progress of the reservoir ecological water regulation, summarizes and analyzes the main research trends and academic routes, and carries out the research based on the technical route of the reservoir dispatching rules. The main contents are as follows: the influence factors of social and economic water demand are put forward, and the urban water demand prediction model based on data mining method is established, which is based on IHA index system. The effects of water conservancy engineering regulation on the ecological hydrological factors of rivers under the single objective mode of socio-economic water supply are evaluated, and the changes of reservoir water supply to the discharge mode and the effects on the ecosystem are analyzed. Based on the genetic algorithm of vector evaluation, the multi-objective risk dispatching model for social economy and ecology is established, and the multi-objective regulation model of reservoir discharge is proposed, which can effectively improve the ability of reservoir optimal operation. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the non-inferior solution set of multi-objective Pareto in different norm forms, and discusses the connotation and adaptation space of the economic-ecological objective corresponding to different norms. This paper studies and analyzes the degree of satisfaction of the optimized multi-objective regulation to the socio-economic water supply and eco-hydrological factors under the condition of hydrological uncertainty, and discusses the effectiveness and feasibility of forecasting and dispatching in improving the water supply of economic, social and ecological environment simultaneously. In this paper, the application of Baiguishan Reservoir in Huaihe River Basin is studied. The results show that the proposed multi-objective risk regulation model for reservoir drainage can effectively improve the multi-objective nonlinear optimal dispatching ability of the reservoir. It is effective to the multi-objective optimal scheduling problem of water-shortage and IHA eco-hydrological factors in economic society, and provides a technical reference for improving the efficiency of water resources utilization under competitive water resources and risk conditions.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.11
本文编号：2311951
[Abstract]:With the development and utilization of water resources, water conservancy projects, including reservoirs, not only satisfy human economic and social water use, but also aggravate the impact on natural rivers, and even replace the hydrological process of natural rivers day by day. The impact on the ecological environment can not be ignored. With the development of economy and society, the ecological and environmental problems caused by the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the change of natural flow pattern caused by runoff regulation are becoming more and more prominent, which has aroused more attention of human society. The social requirements for maintaining the ecological structure and functional integrity of rivers are becoming increasingly strong. How to make rational use of existing projects, improve reservoir management and operation mode, and maintain the synchronous and stable development of social economy and ecology is a hot issue in reservoir operation nowadays. In this paper, in view of the multi-objective scheduling problem of the socio-economic ecological environment of reservoirs, the prediction model of socio-economic water use and the evaluation of the ecological discharge model of rivers are presented. The selection of multi-objective nonlinear dispatching rules and the reliability analysis under hydrological uncertainty are studied in order to propose a more reasonable (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, based on hydrological change index. The model of reservoir economic-ecological regulation based on IHA) enriches the theory and method of reservoir operation. Firstly, the paper investigates the research progress of the reservoir ecological water regulation, summarizes and analyzes the main research trends and academic routes, and carries out the research based on the technical route of the reservoir dispatching rules. The main contents are as follows: the influence factors of social and economic water demand are put forward, and the urban water demand prediction model based on data mining method is established, which is based on IHA index system. The effects of water conservancy engineering regulation on the ecological hydrological factors of rivers under the single objective mode of socio-economic water supply are evaluated, and the changes of reservoir water supply to the discharge mode and the effects on the ecosystem are analyzed. Based on the genetic algorithm of vector evaluation, the multi-objective risk dispatching model for social economy and ecology is established, and the multi-objective regulation model of reservoir discharge is proposed, which can effectively improve the ability of reservoir optimal operation. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the non-inferior solution set of multi-objective Pareto in different norm forms, and discusses the connotation and adaptation space of the economic-ecological objective corresponding to different norms. This paper studies and analyzes the degree of satisfaction of the optimized multi-objective regulation to the socio-economic water supply and eco-hydrological factors under the condition of hydrological uncertainty, and discusses the effectiveness and feasibility of forecasting and dispatching in improving the water supply of economic, social and ecological environment simultaneously. In this paper, the application of Baiguishan Reservoir in Huaihe River Basin is studied. The results show that the proposed multi-objective risk regulation model for reservoir drainage can effectively improve the multi-objective nonlinear optimal dispatching ability of the reservoir. It is effective to the multi-objective optimal scheduling problem of water-shortage and IHA eco-hydrological factors in economic society, and provides a technical reference for improving the efficiency of water resources utilization under competitive water resources and risk conditions.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.11
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 董哲仁;孙东亚;赵进勇;;水库多目标生态调度[J];水利水电技术;2007年01期
，本文编号：2311951
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/shuiwenshuili/2311951.html
