多重扰动水资源脆弱性耦合评价

发布时间：2018-05-30 05:03

本文选题：水资源 + 脆弱性　；参考：《中国农村水利水电》2015年10期

【摘要】：考虑多重随机扰动因素下水资源脆弱性的耦合评价,采用Copula函数度量随机扰动之间的相依性,建立水旱灾害受灾面积的联合分布,计算联合分布的同现重现期和联合重现期。以中国东部、中部、西部和东北四个地区1978-2007年的水旱灾害农作物受灾面积资料为例,在正态分布检验基础上,计算各地区旱灾指数,分析灾害空间异质性。研究表明,东部地区发生严重水灾几率最高,其他地区发生水旱灾害的几率较为接近,水灾和旱灾发生频数具有尖峰厚尾特征。各地区当年同时发生严重旱灾和水灾的几率较小,但东部地区和西部地区同时发生这两种严重灾害的几率要高于中部地区和东北地区,我国应把有限的农业减灾资源更多地向西部地区进行配置。
[Abstract]:Considering the coupling evaluation of water resources vulnerability under multiple stochastic disturbances, the Copula function is used to measure the dependence of random disturbances, and the joint distribution of the disaster-affected area of flood and drought disasters is established, and the cooccurrence and joint recurrence periods of the joint distribution are calculated. Based on the data of crops affected by flood and drought disasters in eastern, central, western and northeast China from 1978 to 2007, based on the normal distribution test, the drought index was calculated and the spatial heterogeneity of disasters was analyzed. The results show that the probability of severe flood in eastern region is the highest, and the probability of flood and drought disaster in other areas is close. The frequency of flood and drought has the characteristics of peak and thick tail. The probability of both severe drought and flood in each region is relatively small, but the probability of these two serious disasters in the eastern and western regions is higher than that in the central region and the northeast region. Our country should allocate the limited agricultural disaster reduction resources to the western region more.
【作者单位】：浙江水利水电学院;
【基金】：2013年度教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(13YJA790116)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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