气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价

发布时间：2018-06-15 16:04

本文选题：水资源脆弱性 + 气候变化　；参考：《气候变化研究进展》2015年01期

【摘要】：将耦合暴露度、灾害风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型应用于中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价,从水资源供需平衡角度分析了气候变化对东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响。结果表明,2000年气候条件下,我国东部季风区接近90%的区域水资源处于中度脆弱及以上状态。其中水资源中度和高度脆弱区域约占全区的75%,极端脆弱区域接近15%。中国北方海河、黄河、淮河和辽河流域的水资源脆弱性最高。未来气候变化影响将加剧水资源脆弱性的风险,不同RCP排放情景下2030年代我国东部季风区水资源中度脆弱及以上区域面积有明显的扩大,极端脆弱区域将达到20%~25%。由于未来需水的进一步增加,中国北方水资源脆弱性的格局并未发生根本变化,而南方东南诸河等区域将面临可能发生的水危机。
[Abstract]:The vulnerability assessment model of coupled exposure, disaster risk, sensitivity and stress resistance is applied to the assessment of water resources vulnerability in the eastern monsoon region of China. The effects of climate change on the water resources vulnerability in the eastern monsoon region are analyzed from the point of view of water supply and demand balance. The results show that nearly 90% of the regional water resources in the eastern monsoon region of China are moderately fragile or above under the climatic conditions in 2000. About 75% of the whole area are water resources moderate and highly fragile, and the extreme fragile area is close to 15%. Haihe River, Yellow River, Huaihe River and Liaohe River basins in northern China are most vulnerable to water resources. In the future, the impacts of climate change will aggravate the risk of water resources vulnerability. Under different RCP emission scenarios, the area of water resources in the eastern monsoon region in the 2030s and above will be significantly expanded, and the area of extreme vulnerability will reach 20 or 25. Due to the further increase of water demand in the future, the pattern of water resources vulnerability in the north of China has not changed fundamentally, while the southeastern rivers and other regions in the south will face a possible water crisis.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室;水利部水利水电规划设计总院;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究973项目(2010CB428406,2012CB956204) 国家自然科学基金项目(51279140)
【分类号】：P467;TV213

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