基于模糊数学方法的义乌市水资源安全研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 09:06

本文选题：义乌市 + 水安全评价　；参考：《浙江师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水是人的生命之本,作为当今世界最珍贵的资源受到全世界范围的关注。如今随着人类生产和生活的发展,不合理的开发与利用使水资源日益受到威胁,水安全状况令人担忧。义乌市位于浙江省中部,人口密度较大,经济发展迅速,水安全形势更为严峻。将义乌市作为研究区域,通过科学的方法构建义乌市水安全评价体系,运用多层次多目标模糊数学优选模型对义乌市水安全状况进行评价分析,并使用灰色预测的数学方法对义乌市未来的水安全状况进行预测。期望通过此能令公众对义乌市水安全状况能有更清醒的认识,为提高义乌市的水安全系数提出准确切实的方案措施,为建立人水和谐的义乌市提供相应的参考依据。首先,对水安全研究的现状进行了分析,国内外不同的学者对其都有了较为深刻而广泛的探讨,阐述了研究目的与内容,交代了研究思路与方法,这些均以更科学合理的评价义乌市水安全状况为基本准则。其次,对义乌市的基本情况进行了解。从宏观层面出发,以自然和人文两个视角对义乌市的自然生态环境和社会经济状况进行分析,基本掌握了义乌市的气候、土壤、水文、地质、地貌、人口、经济等的发展现状。再次,通过相关资料的收集与调查研究,对目前义乌市水安全存在的问题进行归纳分析。在这部分内容中,先对义乌市水资源开发利用的现状进行了分析,然后全面了解目前义乌市的水利设施状况,之后重点将义乌市存在的水安全问题做出归纳总结,再将前文所阐述的问题做深入的探讨,究其原因。原因共分为两个方面,即自然因素和人为因素,其中人为因素是当前影响力相对较大的因素,主要体现在用水结构不科学、节水意识淡薄、水利设施不合理和水资源管理不到位等方面。第四,根据义乌市的实际情况结合国际公认的水安全内容,对评价义乌市水安全的指标进行慎重的甄选,构建科学的义乌市水安全评价体系。体系共分为四个层面,由高到低依次为目标、准则、要素及指标层。在完整的评价体系基础上选取层次分析法,定性与定量的对义乌市水安全评价指标进行加权赋值,确定其在评价体系中的权重。第五,选取模多层次多目标模糊优选模型通过前文构建的水安全评价体系对义乌市的水安全状况进行分析,发现从2001年——2012年义乌市水安全状况排名为2003年2004年2001年2002年2006年2005年2007年2008年2009年2010年2012年2011年,其中水安全优属度最小、水安全状况最差的是2003年；而水安全优属度最大、水安全状况最好的是2011年,综合来看,从2001到2012年这段时间义乌市水安全状况呈逐年好转的趋势。此外,并对准则层与要素层的水安全状况进行逐一分析,找出造成影响水安全优属度的主要诱因。在确定义乌市近12a的水安全优属度情况后,通过对比与拟和选取较为准确灰色预测法对未来11a即从2013年—2023年的义乌市水安全状况进行预测。第六,根据之前对义乌市水安全状况的分析内容,针对义乌市水供需矛盾尖锐、水环境污染较严重、水灾害发生较频繁,保障饮用水安全等水安全问题提出了相应的解决方案。最后,回顾了论文的整体情况,总结出论文所得出的主要结论并反思了论文中存在的不足之处。
[Abstract]:Water is the base of human life. As the world's most precious resource, the world's most valuable resource is concerned around the world. With the development of human production and life, the irrational development and utilization of the water resources are becoming more and more dangerous. The state of water safety is worrying. Yiwu is located in the middle of Zhejiang Province, with a large population density, rapid economic development and water safety. The situation is more severe. Taking Yiwu as the research area, the water safety evaluation system of Yiwu city is constructed by scientific method. The water safety status of Yiwu city is evaluated and analyzed by multi level multi-objective fuzzy mathematical optimization model, and the future water safety status of Yiwu is predicted with the grey prediction mathematical method. The expectation is expected to be passed. This can make the public have a more sober understanding of the water safety situation in Yiwu, and put forward the accurate and practical measures to improve the water safety factor of Yiwu City, and provide the corresponding reference for the establishment of the harmonious Yiwu city.
First, the current situation of water safety research is analyzed. Different scholars at home and abroad have a more profound and extensive discussion, expounded the purpose and content of the research, and explained the research ideas and methods, all of which are more scientific and reasonable evaluation of the water safety status in Yiwu as the basic criterion.
Secondly, the basic situation of Yiwu is understood. From the macro level, the natural environment and social and economic conditions of Yiwu are analyzed with two perspectives of nature and humanity, and the development status of the climate, soil, hydrology, geology, geomorphology, population and economy of the city of Yiwu is basically mastered.
Thirdly, through the collection and investigation of relevant data, the existing problems of water security in Yiwu are summarized and analyzed. In this part, the current situation of water resources development and utilization in Yiwu is analyzed, and then the status of water conservancy facilities in Yiwu is fully understood, and then the water safety problems existing in Yiwu city are focused on. The reasons are divided into two aspects: natural factors and human factors, in which human factors are relatively large influence factors, which are mainly reflected in the unscientific water structure, the water saving consciousness, the unreasonable water conservancy facilities and the water resources management. Position and so on.
Fourth, according to the actual situation of Yiwu and the internationally recognized water safety content, the evaluation of Yiwu water safety indicators is carefully selected and a scientific evaluation system for water safety in Yiwu is constructed. The system is divided into four levels, from high to low to target, criterion, factor and index layer. The selection of the system is based on the complete evaluation system. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to evaluate the water safety evaluation index of Yiwu City qualitatively and quantitatively, and determine its weight in the evaluation system.
Fifth, the water security status of Yiwu is analyzed by the model and multi level multi-objective fuzzy optimization model, and the water safety status of Yiwu city is analyzed by the water security evaluation system constructed in the previous article. It is found that the water safety status of Yiwu city in 2001 and 2012 was ranked in 2004 2001 2002 2001. The lowest water safety status was in 2003, and the best water safety status was in 2003, and the best water safety was in 2011. From 2001 to 2012, the water safety status of Yiwu was improved year by year. Furthermore, the water safety status of the standard layer and the factor layer was analyzed one by one to find the influence water. After determining the water safety and superior degree of the near 12a in Yiwu, the water safety status of Yiwu city from 2013 to 2023 is predicted by comparing and selecting and selecting the more accurate grey prediction method for the future 11a.
Sixth, according to the analysis of the water safety situation in Yiwu, the corresponding solutions are put forward in view of the sharp contradiction between water supply and demand in Yiwu, the serious water environment pollution, the frequent occurrence of water disasters, and the safety of drinking water safety.
Finally, it reviews the overall situation of the paper, summarizes the main conclusions and reflects the shortcomings of the paper.
【学位授予单位】：浙江师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4;X824

【参考文献】