基于网络口碑的网上书店销售研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 14:12

本文选题：网络口碑 + 网上书店　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 随着WEB技术的发展,电子商务网站发展迅速,网上书店应运而生,并以其方便、快捷等一系列优点冲击着传统的图书发行产业。对于曾在网上购物的国内网民,最受欢迎的网上商品是书籍,许多购物者都选择了在网上购书。网上书店不仅拥有丰富的图书产品,也包含着大量有价值的网络口碑数据,诸如顾客评论、各类销售榜单等,值得注意的是,网络口碑的重要价值已日益受到消费者和企业的关注。因此,充分利用网上书店丰富的网络口碑资源,从网络口碑角度研究网上书店销售具有实践意义,也可以为网上书店营销策略研究给予参考。本文所采集的数据均来自当当网,利用网上书评对销量预测影响因素进行分析,获取影响销量的关键因素,并据此构建销量预测模型。实验表明顾客评论对于网上图书销售有相当重要的影响,评论较多的图书更容易受到顾客的关注,通过评论数量的增长可以对某本图书的销量进行预测,其中存在明显的正相关关系。对于不同的图书类别,顾客评论对于销售预测数增长的影响确实存在差异性。通过数据量化验证,在顾客评论数量相同的条件下,某类别图书的阅读人群范围越大,其销量通常也越大。在网上图书关注度研究中,本文利用时间序列模型中的ARIMA模型对各类别图书在畅销榜前500名的占有量进行了短期预测,研究结果表明短期关注度变化是可预测的。此外,各类图书搜索量和书本数目比例基本对应,但排行榜上的搜索量并不是简单的线性递减关系。长期关注度变化研究表明,小说、少儿、生活、人文社科类图书为网上图书销售的主体,其中生活类一直是关注的热点,关注度呈继续升高趋势。通过榜单的变化可以研究人们对于各类图书的需求变化,反映文化消费趋势。论文的最后结合研究成果,针对网上书店营销策略提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of WEB technology and the rapid development of e-commerce websites, online bookstores emerge as the times require, and impact on the traditional book distribution industry with a series of advantages such as convenience and quickness. The most popular online product for domestic Internet shoppers is books, and many shoppers have chosen to buy books online. Online bookstores not only have a wealth of book products, but also contain a large number of valuable online word-of-mouth data, such as customer reviews, various sales lists, etc. The important value of network word-of-mouth has been paid more and more attention by consumers and enterprises. Therefore, it is of practical significance to make full use of the abundant network word-of-mouth resources of online bookstores to study online bookshop sales from the perspective of online word-of-mouth, which can also be used as a reference for the study of marketing strategies of online bookstores. The data collected in this paper all come from Dangdang. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of sales volume prediction by using online book review, obtains the key factors that affect sales volume, and constructs a sales forecasting model accordingly. The experimental results show that customer reviews have a very important impact on online book sales. Books with more reviews are more likely to be concerned by customers. The volume of a book can be predicted by the increase in the number of reviews. There is obvious positive correlation among them. For different book categories, there are differences in the impact of customer reviews on sales forecast growth. With the same number of customer reviews, the larger the reading range of a book is, the larger the sales volume is. In the study of online book attention, this paper uses the ARIMA model in the time series model to predict the possession of all kinds of books in the top 500 best-selling list in the short term. The results show that the change of short-term attention is predictable. In addition, the number of books searched corresponds to the number of books, but the search volume on the list is not a simple linear decline. The study on the change of long-term attention shows that the books of novel, children, life, humanities and social sciences are the main body of online book sales, among which the life category is always the focus of attention, and the attention degree continues to increase. Through the change of list, we can study the change of people's demand for all kinds of books and reflect the trend of cultural consumption. Finally, combined with the research results, the paper puts forward some suggestions for online bookshop marketing strategy.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F274;F724.6;G239.23-F;F224

【参考文献】