冷战后美国延伸威慑战略模式探析——基于地缘政治的视角

发布时间：2018-05-23 21:34

本文选题：延伸威慑 + 危机稳定性　；参考：《当代亚太》2017年05期

【摘要】：通过将核武器作为慑止他国攻击其海外军事力量和盟国的工具,美国维系了以自身为核心的全球同盟体系,捍卫了霸权地位。文章认为,冷战后,美国的延伸威慑战略具有地区差异性,基于安全承诺的制度化水平和用于威慑的核力量构成的不同,可以概括为欧洲模式、亚太模式和中东模式。这三种模式的延伸威慑战略的可信性依次降低。冷战后,美国延伸威慑战略实施的地缘环境受其自身核力量的削弱、地区层面威慑对象的多元化以及武器技术的扩散三方面因素的影响而恶化,进而造成盟国对其延伸威慑的可信性提出质疑。文章预测,美国延伸威慑战略的三种模式今后将分别在相应地区面临以下挑战:欧洲地区的危机稳定性下降,亚太地区的核扩散风险上升,以及中东地区的美阿同盟可能发生"漂流"。造成美国陷入当前困境的根本原因在于,冷战后美国依旧奉行冷战思维,追求霸权主导地位和实力上的绝对优势,使得其延伸威慑战略不仅出现了目标与手段的失衡,而且存在逻辑与表述上的矛盾。
[Abstract]:By using nuclear weapons as a tool to deter other countries from attacking their overseas military forces and allies, the United States maintains its own global alliance system at its core and defends its hegemony. The paper holds that after the Cold War, the extended deterrence strategy of the United States has regional differences, which can be summarized as the European model, the Asia-Pacific model and the Middle East model based on the different levels of institutionalization of security commitments and the composition of nuclear forces used for deterrence. The credibility of the extended deterrence strategy of these three models is reduced in turn. After the Cold War, the geographical environment for the implementation of the extended deterrence strategy of the United States was aggravated by the weakening of its own nuclear forces, the diversification of its regional deterrence targets and the proliferation of weapons technology. In turn, the allies questioned the credibility of its extended deterrence. The article predicts that the three models of the extended deterrence strategy of the United States will face the following challenges in the future in the corresponding regions: the stability of the crisis in the European region is declining and the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Asia-Pacific region will rise. And America-Arab alliance in the Middle East region may have a "drift." The fundamental reason for the current predicament of the United States lies in the fact that after the cold war, the United States still pursues the Cold War mentality and pursues the dominant position of hegemony and the absolute superiority of its strength, which not only leads to the imbalance between the goal and the means of its extended deterrence strategy. And there is a contradiction between logic and expression.
【作者单位】：解放军信息工程大学洛阳校区国际战略教研室;解放军信息工程大学洛阳校区;
【分类号】：D871.2

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