“一带一路”沿线恐怖活动风险的贸易隔离效应

发布时间：2018-06-10 13:49

  本文选题：恐怖活动风险 + “一带一路”　； 参考：《世界经济文汇》2017年01期

【摘要】：本文使用66个"一带一路"沿线国家2000-2013年间的跨国面板数据,对恐怖活动风险的"贸易隔离效应"进行了实证研究,发现一国恐怖活动风险上升确实会产生显著的"贸易隔离效应",主要表现为显著拉低其出口依存度。在考虑了恐怖活动风险变量的内生性和恐怖活动的伤亡规模异质性之后,此结论依然稳健。此外,恐怖活动风险的"贸易隔离效应"还有袭击目标异质性的特征,即"贸易隔离效应"程度与恐怖活动袭击目标的随机性程度正相关。
[Abstract]:Using the transnational panel data of 66 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2000 to 2013, this paper makes an empirical study on the "trade isolation effect" of terrorist risk. It is found that the rising risk of terrorist activities in a country does have a significant "trade isolation effect", which mainly shows as a significant decrease in its export dependence. After considering the endogenous nature of terrorist risk variables and the heterogeneity of terrorist casualties, this conclusion is still robust. In addition, the "trade isolation effect" of the risk of terrorist activity is also characterized by heterogeneity of the target, that is, the degree of "trade isolation effect" is positively related to the randomness of the target of terrorist attack.
【作者单位】： 南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“全球价值链发展变化与我国创新驱动发展战略研究”(15ZDA060) 中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心的资助
【分类号】：D815.5;F752
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本文编号：2003435