“第二次转型”与俄罗斯的重新崛起

发布时间：2018-03-01 22:23

本文关键词： 俄罗斯第二次转型重新崛起关联性　出处：《华东师范大学》2008年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 自20世纪90年代初独立以来,俄罗斯经历了一场长达10余年的动荡曲折的转型历程。以2000年左右为界,后共产主义时期的俄罗斯发展历程似乎呈现出两种截然不同的面貌:叶利钦时代的俄罗斯几乎是俄历史上最为暗淡的时期之一,处于深刻危机中的俄罗斯一直在苦苦地寻求如何克服内部混乱、确定一个大国强国的发展之路;而普京则以“乱世用重典”的方式悄然实现了政治可控、经济发展、社会稳定的转变,让俄罗斯“重新崛起”的命题再一次被世人关注。无论是从共时还是历时的视角看,俄目前的相对实力和绝对实力与苏联解体之初相比都有了长足的进展,俄罗斯重新强势地屹立在国际舞台上,成为牵动国际关系格局与大国关系变迁的重要因素。普京治下的俄罗斯为什么能重新崛起?这是横亘千年的“崛起——衰落——重新崛起”的历史逻辑的重演?是植根于俄罗斯民族基因中的一种特殊气质使然?还是基于其他的动力?由于研究范式、理论背景等各种因素的影响,国内外学术界对这一问题并没有统一共识,部分学者甚至对俄罗斯重新崛起本身多有质疑。本论文引入“第二次转型”的理论范畴,解读普京时代俄罗斯的重新崛起,这是国内、国际学术界正在开始展开深入讨论的重要问题。尽管“第二次转型”的学术概念未有定论,但其核心内容是在完成制度转型基本任务的基础上通过新一轮转型克服原有转型的“制度陷阱”,使已经构建的制度从非效率制度均衡向效率制度均衡转变。如果说,叶利钦时代俄罗斯转型的主要目标是政治上要从全能主义体制向自由民主体制转换、经济上要从计划经济体制向市场经济体制递嬗的话,普京时代的俄罗斯转型则呈现出迥异的路径与特征。如果说前者是“第一次转型”,那么后者的主要改革目标与其实说是要从旧体制转轨至新体制,不如说是要克服在叶利钦时代俄罗斯转型进程中形成的一系列“制度陷阱”的“第二次转型”。从这个意义上讲,普京推动的俄罗斯转型越来越多地表现出与叶利钦早期推进的新自由主义导向的体制路径切入相异的方向。在笔者看来,普京式的“第二次转型”包含以下几个要素:第一,从“制度陷阱”到个人施加极大影响的制度重构;第二,从线性过渡到尊重社会发展模式的多样性选择;第三,从新自由主义导向下的简单搬用到在市场经济模式前提下的关注国情筛选:第四,从文化上偏向极端到强调团结和中间主义的路线。本论文有以下主要结论: 第一,普京时代俄罗斯政治领域的“第二次转型”集中表现为从“自由主义民主”到“行政主导下的民主”的调整。这是一种迫于形势和处于形成过程之中的民主模式,而非严格意义上的权威主义。俄罗斯具备了民主的基本特征。无论是“主权民主”,还是“可控民主”,都是普京正在引导俄罗斯探索的一条独特的、有本国特色的民主政治道路,其实质是非西方式的自由主义导向的民主,它有可能向更成熟的民主制度递进。第二,普京时代俄罗斯经济领域的“第二次转型”是从“新自由主义”到“私人—国家资本主义”的模式转换。无论是叶利钦还是普京在经济上都不同程度地表现为自由主义的取向。普京经济模式是在自由经济理念和宪政框架内形成的,私人资本和国家资本同时取得了发展,其国家干预还是为私有经济留下了发展空间,同时力图为国家干预找到合理的定位。第三,普京时代俄罗斯“第二次转型”在意识形态领域主要表现为从叶利钦时代的多元竞争到以中派主义为特征的主体意识。叶利钦在意识形态领域未能使俄民众形成和谐共存,而普京则通过引导及“第二次转型”的实际绩效逐渐趋于建立新的主体意识形态。第四,普京时代俄罗斯“第二次转型”在外交领域主要表现为从后帝国外交到超越帝国外交的转变。叶利钦时期,俄罗斯外交更多表现出一种后帝国的特征,即作为一个传统大国,在一个不断受到削弱的空间内,经历着外交的艰难转型,融入国际社会成为其主要目标。普京执政以来的俄罗斯外交从上个世纪90年代开始的战略收缩已经基本结束,在“第二次转型”刺激俄重新崛起的大背景下俄罗斯外交日益强势,出现了以由被动到主动、由韬光守拙到“有眼还眼、有牙还牙”转变为主要内容的重大变化。第五,上述各领域的“第二次转型”促进了俄罗斯的重新崛起。“第二次转型”的阶段性成功使俄恢复了俄在上个世纪90年代一度支离破碎、互不协调的内外政策的完整性。俄现在内外政策并不完美,也许有诸多失误,但这种政策是建立在俄的实际能力和现实利益之上的,而不再以某些幻想和某种情结为基础。第六,“第二次转型”是一个异常复杂的过程,存在着很多风险,其难度不亚于“第一次转型”。普京推动的“第二次转型”的悖论在于,这仍是一种基于“追赶型战略”的模式,并未跳出俄历史进程中从激进到稳健到保守的变迁路径。它在促进俄加速发展的同时,也埋下了俄崛起受阻的因子。对于21世纪的俄罗斯而言,如何找到适合本国国情的最佳发展道路仍是一个关键问题。研究俄罗斯重新崛起的问题有很强的理论和现实意义。一方面,这可丰富转型理论,以俄罗斯为鉴探讨一些重大理论问题,如制度建设和大国崛起问题、经济持续增长后的社会和谐发展问题、政治集中化背景下的经济可持续发展问题、国际政治中心从西方向东方位移的前景问题;另一方面,俄的发展模式和重新崛起的前景,不仅影响着国际形势的宏观走向,更对中国的国家利益有着巨大影响。研究二者之间的关联性问题将为我国开展对俄工作提供新的视角、思路和政策咨询。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of 1990s, Russia has experienced a more than 10 years of turmoil. The twists and turns of the transformation process after 2000, Post Communist Russia development seems to present two different features: Yeltsin's Russia is almost Russian history as one of the most bleak period, are in the deep crisis Russia always tried to find out how to overcome the internal chaos, determined to become a great power; and Putin for "in times of heavy penalties" quietly realized political control, economic development, change of social stability, let Russia "rise again" proposition is again the world's attention. Whether it is see from the synchronic or diachronic perspective, Russia's relative power and absolute power of today and the disintegration of the Soviet Union at the beginning of it has made great progress in the new Russia strong stand On the international stage, it has become an important factor in the change of the pattern of international relations and the relationship between great powers.
Putin's Russia why can rise again? This is a repeat of history logic spans thousands of years "rise decline -- rise again"? Is a special kind of temperament is rooted in the Russian National Gene in? Or other power based on? Because of research paradigm, effects of various factors such as the theoretical background, the domestic and foreign academic there is no consensus on this issue, some scholars even to a resurgent Russia itself have questioned.
This paper introduces the theoretical category of "the second transformation", and interprets the revival of Russia in the Putin era. This is an important issue that domestic and international academia is beginning to discuss in depth.
Although the academic concept of "second transformation" is not yet known, but its core content is the basic task of complete system transformation on the basis of the new round of restructuring and overcome the transformation of the system, the trap "has been constructed from non balanced system to system efficiency efficiency balanced system change.
If we say that the Yeltsin era the main targets of Russia's transition to political transition from the totalitarian regime to a democratic system, economy to change from planned economy to market economy, transition of Russia in Putin's era showing a different route and characteristic. If the former is "the first transformation". The main objectives of the reform of the latter and actually said is to transition from the old system to the new system, as it is to overcome Yeltsin's era in the process of transformation into a series of "institutional trap" of the "second transition". In this sense, Putin promote the transition in Russia is showing more and more system path with Yeltsin's early pushing forward the new liberalism oriented cut different direction.
In my opinion, Putin's "second transition" contains the following elements: first, the reconstruction system from the trap system to individual exert tremendous influence; second, from linear transition to respect the social development pattern diversity; third, from the new liberalism guide used in the market economy under the premise of attention situation: move down fourth simple screening, from the culture to the extreme to unity and the middle of the line.
This paper has the following main conclusions:
First, the Putin era of Russian political field "second transition" is manifested from "liberal democracy" to "administrative leading democracy". This is a kind of adjustment under the situation and formed in the process of democracy, rather than the main meaning of authority in the strict sense. Russia has the basic characteristics of democracy. Whether it is "Sovereign Democracy", or "controllable democracy", is Putin's efforts to explore a unique, democratic road with Russian characteristics, its essence is non western liberalism oriented democracy, it is possible to progressive democratic system more mature.
Second, Putin's era in the economic field "second transition" from the "new liberalism" to "private state capitalism" mode conversion. Both Yeltsin and Putin in the economy have different degree of performance orientation of liberalism. Putin's economic model is formed in the free economic philosophy and constitutional framework at the same time, private capital and national capital has been developing, the state intervention or private economy has left a space for development, while trying to find a reasonable location for state intervention.
Third, Putin's era "second transition" mainly in the field of ideology for the Yeltsin era from pluralistic competition to subjective characteristics of consciousness. "Sent Yeltsin in the field of ideology failed to convince the Russian people to form a harmonious coexistence, and Putin through the guide and the" second transition "the actual performance tends to be a new the main body of ideology.
Fourth, Putin's era "second transition" is mainly manifested in the diplomatic field to change beyond diplomacy from the Empire. After the Empire diplomacy to the Yeltsin period, the Russian foreign show more characteristics of the empire a, as a traditional country, in a constantly weakened by space, experiencing a difficult transition diplomacy, international integration has become the main target. The strategic contraction since the Putin administration of Russian diplomacy from the last century began in 90s has been basically completed, in the background of "stimulus second transition" Russia resurgent Russian Diplomacy under growing strong, there appeared to be from passive to active, from Shouzhuo to "Tao ray eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" major changes as the main content.
Fifth, each of these areas of "second transformation" to promote Russia's re emergence. "Stage second transition" the success of Russia restored Russia in the last century in 90s was reduced to fragments integrity policy, uncoordinated. Russia's foreign policy is not perfect, there are many mistakes, but this policy is based on the actual ability of Russia and realistic interests, not on some fantasy and a complex basis.
Sixth, the "second transition" is a very complicated process, there are many risks, as difficult as "the first transition." Putin to promote the "second transition" the paradox is that this is still a "catch up" strategy based on the model, the process of history in Russia did not jump out from the radical to moderate to conservative change path. It promotes Russia to accelerate development at the same time, also planted a Russian rise blocked factor. In twenty-first Century Russia, how to find the optimal path of development suited to their national conditions is still a key issue.
There is a strong theoretical and practical significance to study Russia's rise problem. On the one hand, it can enrich the theory of transformation, to Russia for discussion of some important theoretical problems, such as the system construction and the rise of the great power, sustained economic growth after the harmonious development of the society, political and economic sustainable development of centralized background. The international political center from the west to the east of the prospect of displacement; on the other hand, the development mode of Russia and the re emergence of the prospect, not only affects the macro trend of the international situation, has a huge impact on more China national interests. The correlation problem between the study of the two will provide a new perspective in China the Russian work, ideas and policy advice.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：D751.2

【引证文献】